Requirements for and Use of Weather, Climate, and Water Information in the (french) Energy Sector Geneva, September, 2006 Laurent Dubus EDF R&D

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 2 Electricity Demand forecasting : why is it so important ? Daily to weekly, monthly and seasonally : need to estimate future power demand in order to manage power production and to forecast market electricity prices February 2005 courtesy Power demand Temperature Temperature anomaly In France, power demand is highly dependent on temperature. e.g. in winter : -1°C dT 1400 MW of extra production (~2% of total production) + growing importance in summer (hot waves)

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 3 Hydropower production capacity forecasting : why is it so important ? % quantile 50% quantile 10% quantile

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 4 Electricity prices : august 2003 Normal price ~ euros/MWh Extreme prices ~ euros/MWh ( and hourly prices ~1000 euros/MWh !)

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 5 Production planning & optimization Production units maintenance scheduling Water stocks management Stocks management (coal, fuel, gas …) Weather,Climate & Water Load Forecasts Renewable energies Production Forecasts Electricity prices forecasts Management of an Electrical System : a complex problem Many other processes… Grid management

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 6 Courtesy DLR (German Aerospace Center) From Dr Thierry Ranchin What kind of weather, climate & water info is used ? Data archives Climate predictions & scenarii (e.g. IPCC scenarios) Observations (in situ & remote) Data archives Weather forecasts Climate predictions (e.g. ECMWF EPS, Monthly & Seasonal fcst, IPCC scenarios)

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 7 Courtesy DLR (German Aerospace Center) What kind of weather, climate and water info is used ? Air : Temperature Precipitations MSLP / Geopotential Wind Chemical species concentrations … Water (Rivers & Oceans) : River flows & temperatures Coastal ocean temperatures, wave height Biological and chemical parameters … … and Orography, Surface roughness, Snow Cover … and many others !

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 8 Limits to using WCW info Main limits in the use of new types of WCW info : Human natural adversity to changes in well known products ! Time needed to adapt (or even change) users tools Difficulties of end users to understand and use complex (e.g. probabilistic) information Need of an interface between providers and end users (R&D or engineering division of the company, or specific service of the providers) in order to translate the information, and train the end users

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 9 Perspectives Research institutes and products providers are on the way to developing new interesting WCW products & many existing products are not yet used in an optimal way One key point is to develop application products in a cooperative way between providers and end-users : implies early-stage relationships Research products should generally turn operational in no more than 1-3 years, but not necessarily faster because end-users need time to assimilate them and to adapt there own tools

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 10 Demonstration projects Possible interactions with the WMO/AMP/PWS Task Force on Socio- Economic Applications of Meteorological and Hydrological Services (Ms Haleh Kootval, Dr Don Wilhite) WMO Madrid 2007 Conference : Secure and Sustainable Living : Social and Economic Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services Wind Farm Game by Ken Mylne and colleagues (UK MetOffice) Seasonal forecasting of the flood volume of the Senegal river, based on results of ARPEGE Climat model (IRD & Météo-France) ENSEMBLES Integrated Project (ECs 6 th Framework Programme)

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting 11 Who we are Visit A European energy leader with a worldwide presence Within a context of market opening, the EDF Group is positioning itself to become a leading energy company in Europe. The EDF Group is among the key players in the field of electricity generation, distribution and supply in Europe. Managing a generation mix with a capacity of GWe, it provides energies and services to 42.1 million customers throughout the world, including 36.2 million in Europe. The EDF Group is made up of Electricité de France, parent company (EDF SA), and a network of 75 affiliates and investments established in Europe and around the world. EDF and the Group network carry out energy-related activities focused on the core businesses of generation, trading, transmission, distribution, supply and services. The EDF Group is committed to a strategy of corporate responsibility, successfully reconciling economic performance, social equity and respect for the environment. In 2004, the EDF Group's consolidated sales amounted to 46.9 billion. R&D Division ~2000 people

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