GEO Work Plan Symposium 2011 Days 2 & 3 DS-04 - Oceans

DS-04 Ocean Monitoring, Forecasting and Resources Management - Definition - Monitoring Marine and Coastal Ecosystems (Ecosystems and Biodiversity Strategic Targets) - Earth observations for fisheries, and aquaculture (Agriculture Strategic Target) - Provide sustained ocean observations to underpin development of, and assess the efficacy of, climate change adaptation measures such as those related to vulnerability and impacts of sealevel rise. - Ensure the availability of all Essential Ocean Climate Variables needed by the WCRP, the IPCC and the UNFCCC (Climate Strategic Target)

Deliverables 1.Monitoring of marine and coastal ecosystems 2.Global operational ocean forecasting network 3.Fishery and aquaculture management 4.Availability of Essential Ocean Climate Variables Leads (tentative): Canada (CSA), European Commission, South Africa, USA (NOAA), CEOS, FAO, GOOS, IEEE, IOC, POGO, WMO …

Related Work Plan Subtasks – All incorporated (implicitly) AR-09-03c) Global Ocean Observation System DA-09-02b) Ensemble-Technique Forecasting Demonstrations CB-09-03d) Building Capacity for Operational Oceanography WA-08-01g) Global Water Quality Monitoring EC-09-01c) Regional Networks for Ecosystems AG-06-02: Data Utilization in Fisheries and Aquaculture

New Proposals – All included (implicitly) Blue Planet: Ocean and Society (POGO) Global Ocean Information System (Germany, Bremen University) Extension of Ensemble Forecasting Techniques to Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems (UK) Vulnerability and Integrated Management of Coastal Zone (South Africa) Global High Frequency Radar Network (USA, USGEO)

Resources Available for Implementation Monitoring of marine and coastal ecosystems Member States, EC (GEO-WOW), OBIS, POGO, GOOS, … Global operational ocean forecasting network France, Australia, USA, WMO/IOC JCOMM, … Fishery and aquaculture management Member States, Canada and USA (SAFARI), CEOS, FAO (?), … Availability of Essential Ocean Climate Variables USA, JAPAN, Europe, Australia, IOC, WMO, GOOS, CEOS, … Existing Annual GOOS Climate (=GCOS Ocean) Module investment by Nations ~$1 Billion, Coordination investment, primarily by IOC, ~1 Million (source: GOOS summary for Policy Makers)

Origin 100% Total in situ networksDecember % 59% 80% 62% 73% 34%48% 100% Original goal: Full implementation in 2010 System % complete Milestones Surface Driters 2005 Argo Floats 2007 VOSClim 2007 Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate Designed for detection and attribution. Reporting to UNFCCC.

GOOS Summary for Policy Makers, Cost and Benefits of coordinated ocean observations12, 2009 Contributions to Global Coordination

Many nations are not (fully) participating Broadest Participation: Tide Gauges Typical Participation: Hydrographic Sections

Evolution of the GLOSS tide gauge network

Evolution of the ocean satellite network

Evolution of the ocean satellite network

The ARGO array of profiling floats from 2003…

The Argo network has achieved its initial design target. Sustaining the network remains a major challenge.

Argo Floats with Biological Sensors (Oct. 2009) Guidelines Towards an Integrated Ocean Observation System for Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles. Claustre et al, 2010.

Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems: Early warning for management decisions?

Ocean Color IOCCG, CholorGIN, Antares, SAFARI…

Global Patterns of Marine Biodiversity Tittensor et al, Nature, 2010

Human Impact on Marine Ecosystems: global, substantial, not climate dominated. Halpern et al, Science, 2008

Conservation and resource management One of the most pristine marine areas on Earth? Halpern B. et al, Science, 2008 Media Release | Feb. 4, 2011 Fisheries catches in the Arctic totaled 950,000 tonnes from 1950 to 2006, almost 75 times the amount reported to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Zeller et al, Polar Biology, 2011

Global Patterns of Marine Biodiversity Tittensor et al, Nature, 2010

Kahru, M. et al, Global Change Biology 2010 Sea Ice Extent Ecosystem Impacts

19 th July 7 th September Kahru, M. et al, Global Change Biology 2010 These Changes Are Substantial! Eg. Timing of annual Chlorophyll maximum (Foxe Bay):

Regional Products Near real time ocean conditions (t, s, and currents) are now freely available on the web, and widely used. These products depend on data streams from the observing system (eg.

Sea level rise example Natural system state variables: global and regional sea level, heat content, glacial ice mass

Sea level rise example Human vulnerability: populations in low-lying areas, capacity to adapt

Sea level rise example Vulnerability: Small Island Developing States can add projections of future change

Open for Plenary Discussion Identify Synergies Improve Cross-Fertilization Identify Measures and Actions to Fill Gaps