CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources and society adaptation in Nepal DHM Centre d'Etudes Himalayennes

Main objectives of PAPRIKA-Nepal To contribute to a more accurate assessment of glacier retreat and snow cover changes in the HKH region and a better understanding of the surface processes governing glacier and snow melt To evaluate the distribution and variability of absorbing aerosol particles from anthropogenic origin transported to the high altitude regions of HKH To establish and model the current energy budget of snow surfaces, including the effect of absorbing aerosols deposited in snow and their impact on water melting rates. To provide climate trends and scenarios at the regional level To use these projections to quantify current and future water resource in the area of Nepal To study adaptation options of mountain communities to changes in water availability. To propose plausible adaptation strategies for changing risks, including analysis of their economic efficiency and benefits within the social welfare context.

WP1 Cryospheric resources: glacier melting and snow cover mapping WP3 Climate and Monsoon Variability Modelling WP4 Modelling the interaction between snow pack, radiation and aerosols WP2 Optically Active Aerosols in snow observation and modelling ELEMENT 1: Water Ressources input, Climate and Anthropogenic Pressures on the Cryosphere / Climate and Monsoon System Work Packages

WP5 Water Resources in Future Climate Change Scenarii WP6 Perception of Changes by Population and adaptation within the four Nepal Geographic Units WP7 Capacity Building and Dissemination of Information ELEMENT 2: Impact on the Water Resource System and Population Work Packages

Snow General circulation model (LMDz) Climate scenarios Hydrological modelling Regional model (MARdm) and downscaling Perception of changes by population and adaptation Water resources in future climate change scenarios Capacity building and dissemination of information New Scientific Knowledge (data base, new models, new physics) Glacier Run-Off Land Emission Atmospheric Composition Benchmark glaciers Meteorological observation Ice core BC Nepal region Rainfall Snow-pack/glacier Modelling Remote sensing

WP 1: Water ressource and cryosphere: snow and glacier melting (observation and modelling) Aerosols: Modification of thermal atmospheric structure, water vapor, clouds and precipitation Aerosol impact according to glacier faces (snow, ice, debris covered) Aérosols: Dépots carbone suie et poussières: (Albedo)

WP2: OPTICALLY ACTIVE AEROSOL IN ATMOSPHERE AND SNOW Brown Cloud seen from the NCO-P station, transported up through the valley Snow samples from Pyramid, Pokalde and Changri Nup glaciers NCO-P station, close to Pyramid laboratory

WP3: Climate and monsoon variability The model(s) used: LMDz-ORCHIDEE-INCA (SST fixed) Computes the aerosol concentrations and deposition, represent the change in albedo Coupled IPSL model Changes in the intensity, onset phases and extent of the monsoon

Incoming solar radiation Incoming IR radiation Sensible / latent heat fluxes - conduction - melting / freezing - percolation - settling - metamorphism Wind rain snow SNOWPACK ATMOSPHERE GROUND melting run-off geothermal heat flux ++  + ++  + incoming radiation temperatureBC content snow type also: density specific surface area diffusion / advection SNOWPACK MODELING USING CROCUS with INPUT from observations or regional / global models Work package 4: MODELLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SNOWPACK, RADIATION, AND THE ABSORBING MATERIAL DEPOSITED IN THE SNOW albedo BC deposition Local 1D modeling of optical snowpack properties for different conditions / altitudes: glaciers seasonal snowpack Quantification of BC impact in snow on melting rates and days contribution of the snow melting to the total run-off sensitivities to future changes in temperature and atmospheric BC radiation Implementation of the effect of BC on snow albedo and radiation transfer in the snowpack

Paprika - WP5 Future of the water resources Input from WP1, WP3, WP4 3 components –Glacier melt –Snowpack melt –Rainfall –Headwater < 200 km² –Upper valley > 1000 km² –Koshi River basin > km² Simulate the discharge under different scenarios at different scales

WP 6: Perception of changes by populations and adaptation within the four Nepal geographic units => consequences of climate change on populations: - changes in water uses due to variations in the availability of the resource + the socio-economic impact. - flood risks in the Terai plain => to map areas concerned by change and risk + to estimate affected populations [ using GIS & population census data].

WP7: Local communities and capacity building and dissemination Objectives: 1/ To confront scientific and local knowledge on the evolution of natural resources and on people’s vulnerability in the face of natural hazards; 3/ To define strategies and plans to enhance local capacities in the face of environmental hazards; 4/ To provide authorities with recommendations on how to consider and integrate people’s ability Lower Koshi River basin Saptari District – Nepal Method: Participatory 3- Dimensional Mapping (P3DM) in Irosin, Philippines, in January 2010