Arctic Climate Change Practical Implications of Changing Ice Cover John Falkingham IICWG, October 2000

Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington Is the Arctic Icescape Changing? Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice

Source: Parkinson SMMR/SSM I Analysis Source: Rothrock, U. of Washington No Summer Ice Cover Is the Arctic Icescape Changing? Science and observational evidence point to decreasing ice

Hudson Bay Median Total Ice Concentration ( ) for July 15 open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10

Inter-Annual Variability Hudson Bay ice extent can vary by more than 300 % from one year to the next

Decreasing Ice Extent About 13% per decade

Hudson Bay Example of Heavy Ice Condition Year (1992) for July 15 open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10

open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10 Hudson Bay Example of Light Ice Condition Year (1977) for July 15

Marine Transportation in Canada’s Arctic

Canada’s Eastern Arctic Median Total Ice Concentration ( ) for August 15 open water Ct 1 to 3 Ct 4 to 6 Ct 7 to 8 Ct 9 to 9+ Ct 10

Inter-Annual Variability

Decreasing Ice Extent Decrease of about 20% since 1968

Natural Resources Considerable resources ready for development Decreased ice would make these resources considerably more attractive economically

Marine Resources Currently, the only commercial fishery is the shrimp fishery along the Davis Strait / Baffin Bay ice edge Reduced ice extent could attract international fishing fleets to vast new stocks How will these new resources be managed?

The Northwest Passage Mariners have been seeking this route for at least 500 years. Will it become viable in this century?

CGCM2: Winter and Summer Projected Ice Cover Change vs March September Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Meteorological Service of Canada

Inter-Annual Variability ˚Icebreaker escort will often be required ˚Route planning will be essential to avoid ice ˚Ice information services will be in high demand ˚Significant changes to ice information infrastructure Even with much reduced sea ice in the Arctic in the future, there will still be bad ice years interspersed with good ice years

Conclusion Cooperation and coordination among national ice services of the north polar region will become more important than ever