Maria Wisniewska - CEO BANK PEKAO London, December 5 th, nd UCI INVESTOR DAY Focus on New Europe
2 Agenda Key Highlights Macroeconomic environment and banking industry Key achievements Financial results Asset Quality & Credit Policy 2003 Strategic Focus Conclusions
3 CHANGE SINCE 99 (1) Polish Accounting Standards (2) Capital (3) Investment funds 1EURO=4.09 PLN BANK PEKAO ENJOYS LEADING MARKET POSITION AND EXCELLENT BRAND Total Assets 16,261 2 Market share 17% Deposits (2) 12,359 2 Market share 16% Loans (2) 7,950 1 Market share 14% Asset Management 1,069 1 Market share 24% (3) Cards (market share) 27% 1 Net Income Branches ATM’s 1, Employees 17,233 -7,180 Number of clients, mln 3.7 o/w retail, mln 3.4 o/w corporate, mln 0.3 Cost/Income, % 45.6 ROE, % 9.1 Euro mln, unconsolidated figures as at Sep 02, PAS (1) RANK
4 Agenda Key Highlights Macroeconomic environment and banking industry Key achievements Financial results Asset Quality & Credit Policy 2003 Strategic Focus Conclusions
5 Year 2001 Country Population, mln Inflation rate, % Per Capita GDP, Euro E Real GDP growth, % Ref. interest rate (1) Inflation rate, % E Ref. interest rate (1), % E S&P country rating BBB+ POLAND AT A GLANCE nAfter two years of weak macroeconomic scenario, economic growth will accelerate in 2003 thanks to increasing domestic demand (consumption and investments) nInflation rate to stay in the range of 1,5- 4,0% nConvergence process in realm of interest rate will continue (further cuts expected in Ref. interest rate (1) : -125 bp by 2004) nPolish economy decelerated in 2H01 mainly due to a substantial decline in domestic capital expenditure nPersonal consumption played a leading part in keeping economic growth in positive territory (Real GDP growth in %) nInflation rate is comparable with the EU level and stabilized nStrong decrease in interest rates (e.g. Ref.interest rate (1) dropped from 19.0% in 2000 to 11.5% in 2001) (1) Intervention Rate Source: Pekao estimates
E E BANKING SECTOR IN POLAND 224 EU* 580 Branches per mln inhabitants (Loans+Deposits)/GDP POLAND 72.1% EU* 203% POLAND Loans growth, % Deposits growth, % 2004E Rate on Loans (1), % Rate on Dep. (1), % Spread (1), % (1) Average of end of period Banking System data; rates calculated based on local currency Loans and Deposits The banking sector shows high growth potential to cover the gap in penetration ratios with EU Strong presence of foreign banks (70% of banking sector assets) Concentration of banking sector: 56% of assets held by top 5 players Second wave of consolidation expected nLoans growth decelerated in 2002 due to weak macroeconomic environment, stronger investments will support lending already in 2003 nLower interest rates, introduction of tax on interest gains and "consumption smoothing" effect negatively impacted deposits in 2002; recovery expected from 2003 nSpread expected to decrease in a convergence process *Source: UCI NE Research NetworkSource: Pekao estimates
7 Agenda Key Highlights Macroeconomic environment and banking industry Key achievements Financial results Asset Quality & Credit Policy 2003 Strategic Focus Conclusions
8 PEKAO UNDERWENT A STRONG CULTURAL CHANGE ACHIEVING SIGNIFICANT RESULTS DURING THE LAST THREE YEARS IMPROVEMENT OF SALES CAPABILITIES Total Revenues per employee more than doubled in three years (to Euro 47.3 th. in 9M02) NEW, EFFICIENT MOTIVATION SYSTEMS Approx. 1,800 employees involved in MBO 54 Managers involved in Stock Option Plan HEAVY INVESTMENTS ON IT AND DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS Branches: +108 (+15%) from 1999 to 9M02 ATM’s: +467 (+75.3%) from 1999 to 9M02 RESULTS ORIENTED CORPORATE CULTURE ROE: from 3.7% in 1999 to 15% expected for 2002 Cost/Income: from 67.5% in 1999 to 45.6% in 9M02 COST CONTROL AND COST CUTTING SYSTEM BUILT AS A CORE PART OF THE ORGANISATION Total Costs: -5.6% from 9M99 to 9M02 in real terms N° of employees: -7,180 (-29.4%) in three years DIVISIONALISATION Market segmentation implemented New organisational structure in place
9 IMPROVED MARKET SEGMENTATION IS THE KEY PROJECT IN 2002 FOCUSED ON BETTER SERVICING OF EXISTING CUSTOMER BASE AND INCREASED CROSS-SELLING l VIP/SME VIP Micro Corporates Small Corporates l Mass Market l Private Banking l Corporate Banking Middle Corporates Large Corporates UNIQUE JOINT SERVICE MODEL FOR RETAIL AFFLUENT AND MICRO AND SMALL COMPANIES AIMED AT INCREASING THE BANK’S SHARE OF WALLET l Retail Banking VIP Mass Market Private Banking Micro Corporates Small Corporates Middle Corporates Large Corporates l Corporate Banking
10 Agenda Key Highlights Macroeconomic environment and banking industry Key achievements Financial results Asset Quality & Credit Policy 2003 Strategic Focus Conclusions
11 SELECTIVE LENDING POLICY FOCUSED ON MORTGAGES IN LOCAL CURRENCY Mortgages show the highest growth in retail loans (Euro 87 mln, +18.3% on Dec.01) Pekao’s selective lending led to lower growth than industry Bank Pekao Polish Banking Sector TOTAL LOANS DYNAMIC (3) (3) Polish Central Bank data (excl. foreign branches) COMPARISON (9M02/2001) RETAIL LOANS (1) (Euro mln) (1) Capital ,669 1, Other9M Overdraft +1.7% Mortgage CORPORATE LOANS (1) (Euro mln) ,193 6, Other9M Szczecin Shipyard +1.0% Central Invest. (2) (2) Loan totally guaranteed by State Treasury in repayment period Other retail loans decreased due to cautious lending in difficult macroeconomic environment -4.1% -5.7% 18.3% Corporate loans up 2.5% on Dec.01 excluding Shipyard & Central Invest. impact
12 COMPARISON (9M02/2001) TOTAL DEPOSITS DOWN 4.9% ON DEC.01 MAINLY AFFECTED BY SEASONALITY IN CORPORATE DEPOSITS DEPOSITS INCL. INVESTMENT FUNDS (+53.4% on DEC.01) STABLE (-0.5% ON DEC.01) Slight decrease in retail deposits (-0.7% on Dec01) compensated by growth in investment funds (Euro 372 mln in 9M02, +53.4% on Dec01) Households savings market share (deposits + investment funds) stable at 18.4%. Total assets managed by PPIM (Pekao Pioneer Investment Management) up to Euro 1,069 mln in Sep.02 (+241.8% y/y) with increased market share from 20.9 in Sep.01 to 24.9% in Sep02. Equity linked deposits and tax-free products as a successful answer to customer needs in falling rates environment (approx. Euro 250 mln of Pekao tax free retail bonds sold in two weeks in November) RETAIL DEPOSITS (1) 20019M % FX PLN 5,378 4,236 5,314 4,228 (1) Capital CORPORATE DEPOSITS (1) 20019M % 2, , (Euro mln) 9,6149,542 3,180 2,816 TOTAL DEPOSITS (2) Bank Pekao Polish Banking Sector (2) Polish Central Bank data (excl. foreign branches)
13 Net Interest Income (with SWAP)/Interest Bearing Assets ratio slightly down at 4.9% in 9M02 (5% in 9M01 and 2001 pro forma) *Preliminary data, industry estimates TOTAL REVENUES DOWN 1.6% y/y DUE TO A DIFFICULT SCENARIO AND IN A CONTEXT OF SELECTIVE LENDING POLICY % -0.9% M01Other9M % Net Interest Income Net Fees & Comm. (Euro mln) TOTAL REVENUES BANK PEKAO POLISH BANKING SECTOR * Mainly a result of lower loan growth Fees and commissions/Total revenues up 20 bp y/y to 24.4% in 9M % COMPARISON Other revenues: decrease of income from subsidiaries by 12 mln (-71.3% y/y), decrease of result on financial transactions (1) by 10.3 mln, increase of net FX income by 7,4 mln (+9.5% y/y) and increase of other operating income (1) 7.1 mln (1) y/y % change n.m.
M01 Investment Funds 9M Loans Account services (Euro mln) NET FEES & COMMISSIONS BANK PEKAO POLISH BANKING SECTOR * Result of lower loan growth NEARLY STABLE TREND IN NET COMMISSIONS (-0.9% y/y) NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY DECREASED FEES ON LOANS (-28.8% y/y) COMPENSATED BY GROWING FEES FROM OTHER SOURCES (+7% y/y) Increase in other fees: commissions from account services up 7% (Euro +4.4 mln), fees from investment funds increased by 142.3% (Euro +5.7 mln) Increased weight of fees and commissions from investment funds on Total fees and commissions from 0.1% in 9M01 to 3.0% in 9M % Other COMPARISON *Preliminary data, industry estimates 142.3% 7.0% -28.8% -2.0%
M01BFG (2) 9M Personnel Non Personnel (1) (Euro mln) OPERATING COSTS BANK PEKAO POLISH BANKING SECTOR * COSTS DOWN 7.5% THANKS TO EXCELLENT RESULTS IN COST CUTTING Conservative policy of cost control Decrease of all categories of costs in both nominal (-7.5% y/y) and real terms (-8.8% y/y) Lower cost of BFG caused by decrease of annual fee rate for BFG Fees & Commissions revenues covered 105% of personnel costs, above internal target of 100% coverage (1) Included depreciation (2) Bank Guarantee Fund -38.7% -4.1% -9.9% -7.5% COMPARISON *Preliminary data, industry estimates
16 NET PROFIT for 9M02 amounted to Euro mln (-49.5% y/y) OPERATING INCOME UP 4.0% y/y; CONSERVATIVE PROVISIONING IMPACTS ON PRE TAX PROFIT OPERATING INCOME 9M019M % (Euro mln) PROVISIONS 9M019M % Bank Pekao Polish Banking Sector* COMPARISON on Operating Income (Euro mln) PRE TAX PROFIT 9M019M % (Euro mln) OPERATING INCOME increased to Euro 444 mln in 9M02 (+4.0% y/y) despite difficult scenario, better than industry by 2.4 p.p. Conservative PROVISIONS (+138.4% y/y, of which Euro 48.9 mln due to Szczecin Shipyard) determined a y/y PRE TAX PROFIT decrease of Euro 139 mln (-44.2% y/y) ROE to 9.1% (-11.2 p.p. y/y) *Preliminary data, industry estimates
17 Agenda Key Highlights Macroeconomic environment and banking industry Key achievements Financial results Asset Quality & Credit Policy 2003 Strategic Focus Conclusions
18 WEAK MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IMPACTED NEGATIVELY ON ASSET QUALITY. SIGNS OF STABILISATION IN 3Q02 Deteriorated macroeconomic environment impacted on retail and corporate loan portfolio mainly in 2Q02, stabilisation of quality in 3Q02 Irregular on Total Loans ratio 1.3 p.p. better than the sector (as at June 02 (3) ) Coverage ratio +5 p.p. than the sector (as at June 02 (3) ), improving significantly in 3Q02 reaching 53.5% as at Sep.02 Sub-standard +3,5% +16,1% % ch. on Dec.’ M 2002 Doubtful (Euro mln) Loss ,1% Irregular Loans (1) on Total Loans Provision Coverage Ratio (1) Including non banking financial institutions (2) Pro forma 48.9% % 1H % 9M02 LossDoubtfulSub-standard 4.6% 7.1% 3.4% 2001 (2) 15,0% 3.9% 4.7% 11.1% 9M02 19,6% 5.3% 10.6% 3.8% 1H02 19,7% (3) Latest data available Dec H
19 POLISH CLASSIFICATION RULES ARE DEMANDING 18.0% 63.0% 0.6% Sub-standardDoubtfulLoss SHARE OF LOANS WHICH ARE PERFORMING CLASSIFIED AS IRREGULAR LOANS (9M02) Polish classification of irregular loans is based on: performance of the borrower (interest/capital credits that are not re-paid on time) financial standing of the borrower (e.g. loans to companies which report a loss are automatically considered irregular even if they pay on time) In 9M02: 63.0% of Substandard loans 18.0% of Doubtful 0.6% of Loss were classified as irregular due to weak financial standing of the borrower but are performing 22% of Pekao’s total classified as irregular loans are performing
20 SIGNIFICANT EFFORT PUT ON IMPROVEMENT OF CREDIT POLICY MAIN ACTIONS PLANNED OR ALREADY IMPLEMENTED FOR IMPROVING CREDIT QUALITY IN 2002 AND FORWARD: Training in the Credit and Corporate Area Complete Credit Products review both in the Corporate and Retail Area Strengthening of the lending criteria and increase of the requirements of collateral Review of credit process to support new customer segmentation Complete review of the monitoring process Introduction of Application Processing System for Retail (Credit scoring system for Mass Market segment) Introduction of a new Internal Rating System for Corporate Customers with better predictive capabilities Introduction of Application Processing System for SME and Retail (VIP, Private Banking) 4Q01-1Q02 1Q-2Q02 May 02Oct. 02May 021Q03
21 Agenda Key Highlights Macroeconomic environment and banking industry Key achievements Financial results Asset Quality & Credit Policy 2003 Strategic Focus Conclusions
22 STRATEGIC FOCUS FOR 2003: PROFITABILITY GROWTH, CONSOLIDATION OF EXISTING POSITION… FOCUS ON MOST PROFITABLE SEGMENT: VIP/SME New value added products to existing clients (i.e. Asset Management) Increase of Pekao’s “share of wallet” of existing clients New joint service for Small Business to cover both personal and business needs New customers acquisition COMMERCIAL PRIORITY ACTIONS: CORPORATE BANKING Selective approach for Large Corporates MASS MARKET Cost control and cross-selling No customer base expansion BY PRODUCTS, supported by improved sales force effectiveness INTRODUCTION/FINE TUNE SERVICE MODEL BY SEGMENT (branch model, client acquisition model, sales support tools, commercial performance monitoring tools) BEST AVAILABLE PEOPLE AT ALL LEVELS (assessment, training, recruiting) BY SEGMENTS COMMERCIAL PUSH ON EXISTING HIGHER MARGIN PRODUCTS (e.g. Equity linked products) NEW PRODUCTS INTRODUCTION
23 … AND CONTROL OF CREDIT RISK FOCUS ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CORPORATE RELATIONSHIP MANAGERS AND CREDIT OFFICERS SKILLS (assessment, training, recruiting) IMPROVED MONITORING CAPABILITIES AND APPROPRIATE EVALUATION OF EARLY WARNING SIGNALS IMPROVED RECOVERY PROCESS (timing, % of recovery) DEVELOPMENT OF TWO PILOT CREDIT PROJECTS: Underwriting for Retail and SME Work out
24 Agenda Key Highlights Macroeconomic environment and banking industry Key achievements Financial results Asset Quality & Credit Policy 2003 Strategic Focus Conclusions
25 PEKAO IS READY TO STRENGTHEN ITS POSITION, BENEFITING FROM RECOVERY IN ECONOMY Consolidation of clear leadership in the Polish Banking Sector Pekao recognised as one of the most efficient players in Central and Eastern Europe Further improvement in profitability by more detailed customer segmentation and new product mix development Strong support of strategic Shareholder
26 Annexes
27 ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE GROUP FULLY IN LINE WITH CUSTOMER SEGMENTATION Brokerage House Pekao Leasing Pekao Factoring Access Pekao Ukraina Pekao Tel-Aviv Pekao Pioneer IM Pekao Pioneer PTE Pekao Informatyka Pekao Development Pekao Fundusz Kapitałowy Pekao Financial Services Trinity Management VIP/SME Private Banking Standard Banking and Network Management Corporate and International Banking Alternative Distribution Channels
28 Affluent & Small Business Retain affluent clients Gain new clients Increase share of wallet Leverage on existing resources 800 fully dedicated Sales Managers 125 dedicated Branches PEKAO COMPLETED AN INNOVATIVE DIVISIONALISATION PROCESS, AIMING AT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING COMMERCIAL EFFECTIVENESS FOUR BUSINESS UNITS WITH DEDICATED CHANNELS AND SERVICE MODELS Mass Private Corporate Revenues growth by cross selling Cost effectiveness/ Multichannel usage 828 Branches 4,700 mass Customers Service Representatives Dedicated financial advisors Separate location to provide “exclusive” service 25 corporate hubs and 5 corporate regions Clear cost effectiveness Improved service to clients through product specialists Improved share of wallet/ profitability Corp. Hubs
29 MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN e2003e Domestic Demand Consumption Investment Gov. consumption Stock building External demand Export Import GDP -2,0% 1,3% -2,4% 0,1% -1,0% 3,0% 0,0% 1,0% 0,4% 1,6% -1,2% 0,1% -0,1% 0,7% 0,5% -0,1% 1,1% 2,6% 1,6% 0,9% 0,0% 0,1% -0,5% 1,2% 1,7% 2,1% Source: Pekao estimates
30 UNDER RESTRUCTURING DOUBTFUL LOANS DEFINITIONS - RECONCILIATION BETWEEN ITALIAN AND POLISH RULES ITALYPOLAND IN BONIS STANDARD WATCH RESTRUCTURED WATCHLIST NPL LOSS SUBSTANDARD DOUBTFUL NOTE: In UCI consolidated financial statement polish “Loss” are typically classified as “NPL”, and polish “Substandard” & “Doubtful” are typically “Watchlist”. A final credit assessment is in any case made on a single position evaluation basis
31 Polish classification criteria have three classes of irregular loans versus two in Italy Polish presentation standards are based on gross loans while Italian ones on the net loans POLISH CLASSIFICATION RULES ARE DEMANDING * gross risk group loans and provisions include amounts of overdue interest, which under Polish accounting are presented separately 18.0% 63.0% 0.6% Sub-standardDoubtfulLoss SHARE OF LOANS WHICH ARE PERFORMING CLASSIFIED AS IRREGULAR LOANS (9M02) PASITAS Gross Loans Net Loans Prov. Loss Total NPL TOTAL Net Loans Gross Loans * Prov. * NPL Total Doubtful TOTAL Substand. Doubtful Watchlist Euro bn 9M02 Euro bn 9M02 Watch Standard Perform
% 16.7% 5.2% 4.7% 4.6% 21.9% 7.9% 7.7% 6.1% 6.4% UtilitiesWholesale ConstructionTransport Financial servicesProduction of food Other manufacturingProduction of transport equipment Public administrationOther 1H02 LOAN PORTFOLIO STRUCTURE BY INDUSTRIAL SECTORS 16.4% 15.2% 25.6% 6.3% 6.7% 6.4% 5.2% 8.2% 4.5% 5.4% 1H01
33 PEKAO 9M02 UNCONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT Interest margin (incl. div.) Net non interest income Total revenues Operating costs (incl. dep.) Net operating income Net income - of which: Staff costs Dec % Net loan loss provisions (Euro mln, PAS) Taxes Dec , Ch. % 2001/ Sep Sept Ch. % Sept. 02/ Sept. 01 Other provisions Extraordinary income/loss n.m. Pre-tax profit/loss Tax rate, % 28.4%29.7%33.5% Balance due to roundings & share in net profit (loss) of subsidiaries evaluated at equity method
34 PEKAO 9M02 UNCONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET Cash and deposits with Central Banks (Euro mln, PAS) Sept , Sept Ch. % Sept. 02/ Sept. 01 ASSETS Loans due from: 7,974.97,791.77, Customers - Financial Institutions 2,320.82,183.71, Dec. 01 Ch. % Sept. 02/ Dec. 01 Securities 5,380.45,133.15, Fixed assets Other assets 1,546.51, LIABILITIES TOTAL ASSETS AND LIABILITIES 18, , , Deposits: 12, , , Due to Customers - Due to Central Bank Reserve fund for possible loan losses Other liabilities 2,074.41, Due to Financial Institutions , Shareholders’ equity 1,570.41,658.31, Balance due to roundings
35 PEKAO 9M02 CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT Interest margin (incl. div.) Net non interest income Total revenues Operating costs (incl. dep.) Net operating income Net income - of which: Staff costs Dec , % Net loan loss provisions (Euro mln, PAS) Taxes Dec , Ch. % 2001/ Sep Sept Ch. % Sept. 02/ Sept. 01 Other provisions n.m Extraordinary income/loss n.m.0.0 n.m. Pre-tax profit/loss Minorities n.m n.m. Tax rate, % 29.4%31.6%35.1% Balance due to roundings, goodwill & share in net profit (loss) of subsidiaries evaluated at equity method
36 PEKAO 9M02 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET Cash and deposits with Central Banks (Euro mln, PAS) Sept , Sept Ch. % Sept. 02/ Sept. 01 ASSETS Loans due from: 8,153.18,056.57, Customers - Banks 2,190.72,117.31, Dec. 01 Ch. % Sept. 02/ Dec. 01 Trading Securities 5,344.55,014.55, Fixed assets Other assets 1,577.51, LIABILITIES TOTAL ASSETS AND LIABILITIES 18, , , Deposits: 12, , , Due to Customers - Due to Central Bank Reserve fund for possible loan losses Other liabilities 2, , , Due to Banks Minority interest n.m Shareholders’ equity 1, , , Balance due to roundings