The Small States of the South Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan Small States, Regional Integration and Globalization at the University of Iceland Dr. Robia charles

Agenda Introduction Political Integration Relations with the EU and NATO Territorial Conflicts Economic Integration

Introduction

South Caucasus: An introduction Early 1800s 1922-1991 1991 Incorporation into the Russian Empire First Republic Union Republics within the USSR 1918-1920/1921 Independence Armenia: 9th century BC Kingdom of Urartu Georgia: 10th century

Quick Facts Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan Religion 95% Armenian Apostolic 84% Georgian Orthodox, 10% Muslim 60% Shia, 30% Sunni, 3% Orthodox Language Armenian հայերեն լեզուն Georgian ქართულ ენაზე Azeri Azərbaycan dili Ethnic groups 98% Armenian, 1.3% Russian 83% Georgian, 7% Azeri, 6% Armenian, 2% Russian 90% Azeri, Lezgin 2.2%, Russian 2% Population 3 million 4.5 million 9.5 million Size comparison Belgium (29,743 km2) Lithuania (69,700 km2) Austria (86,600 km2) Armenia: apricots, brandy, cognac Azerbaijan: 1848 world’s first oil well, Nobel 1879, 1918 women’s suffrage Georgia: Wine, Dmanisi

Georgia Presidential republic Western integration Independence from Russia South Ossetia and Abkhazia Transit Black Sea

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cD36Ieu8Dc

Armenia Presidential republic Landlocked, transportation and economic isolation Military and economic dependence on Russia* Good relations with Iran Nagorno Karabakh Turkey

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS9CXPHn-bI

Azerbaijan Presidential republic Tenuous alliance with Turkey Energy supplier Nagorno Karabakh Caspian Sea

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3hk19cwubQ&list=PLCA134C193423C761

Political integration* The South Caucasus between Russia and the EU (the Near Abroad) Rejoining the world as independent states after 1991 Behind on democratic reform EU European Neighborhood Policy>Eastern Partnership (EaP)* Bilateral association agreements Sectoral cooperation Institution-building programs Civil society organizations NATO*

Eastern Partnership (eaP)*

Relations with the eu and NATO Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan Strong desire to join the EU Strong desire to join NATO Desire for independence and to have good relations with Russia Lower desire to join the EU Little desire to join NATO EU supports opening the border A closed border with Turkey, conflict over Nagorno Karabakh impedes integration into NATO and independence from Russia Lower desire to join the EU Little desire to join NATO

3 Territorial conflicts* South Ossetia (population of 55,000) 158,000 displaced Abkhazia (population of 242,862) 133,000 displaced Nagorno Karabakh (population of 46,573) 30,000 killed and 1 million displaced

Russia-Georgia war (2008)* Ongoing disagreement since 1991 May 2008: Russia sends troops to Abkhazia August 2008: Georgia sends troops to South Ossetia Russia sends troops to border and air strikes South Ossetia Russian tanks move into Georgia proper Ceasefire brokered by Sarkozy Russian troops withdraw and recognizes the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia Administrative boundary line (ABL) created with Russian troops on one side and EUMM on the other Georgia sees this as Russian occupation (20% of Georgian territory)

Nagorno Karabakh IDP az

Nagorno Karabakh 1921: Stalin NKAO in Azerbaijani SSR with majority Armenian population 1988: NK seeks to be part of Armenian SSR. Ethnic swap begins. Moscow declares martial law in NKAO 1992: NK declares itself an independent republic. Armenian military begin to take villages 1991-1994: 30,000 killed, 350,000 Armenian refugees, 600,000 Azeri IDPs 1994: Ceasefire accord signed (Russian mediation). Minsk Process under the OSCE has failed*

The Passenger (short film) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QReNxbw_62s 7:40 Stop

Turkish-Armenian border (1993)

THIS IS D15 AND D16, SHOW 2010, 2011 AND 2012 DATA TOGETHER.

Economic integration USSR economy vs. market economies* Survival in the international economy is based on local niche economies: Energy in Azerbaijan Energy transport in Georgia Manufacturing in Armenia Commonwealth of Independent States (1991)* Eurasian Economics Union (2015) = alternative to the EU’s neighborhood policy

economies Georgia Armenia Azerbaijan Inefficient industrial and agricultural sectors Service sector is 69% of GDP Oil and gas transport GDP $16 billion GDP pc $7,165 WTO member Manufacturing Outdated industry sector Scarce natural resources GDP $10 billion GDP pc %7,774 Remittances (21% of GDP) WTO member Natural gas and oil Oil rents is 42% of GDP GDP $67 billion GDP pc $17,139 Over $1 billion military budget WTO consideration Oil rents are the difference between the value of crude oil production at world prices and total costs of production.

Georgia* Trade and economic pact with the EU (2014) Poor relations with Russia

Armenia 3 Stages of economic development since independence Post-transition progress Qualitative stagnation Hopeless stagnation Russia is the largest economic partner and controls the transport and energy sector* 2 million Armenians in Russia, $1 million in remittances annually 2013 intention to join Eurasian Customs Union

Azerbaijan* No intention to join the Eurasian Customs Union Agricultural sector would be destroyed by cheap products from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus Losing independence over energy policy Nagorno Karabakh Russian dominance

Geopolitics*

Geopolitics South Caucasus energy is perceived as a threat to Russia Russia supplies Armenia with gas via Georgia Georgia receives power from the Metsamor nuclear power plant Armenia supplied with Russian uranium that is flown over Georgia Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan have plans to synchronize their energy grids

Connection to the world Cell phones Internet and email The past two decades have seen an internationalization of information services including the expansion of cell phone ownership, and computer-based communication through the internet and email. This has promoted the diversification and democratization of information as people are able to communicate their opinions and perspectives on issues, local and global, that impact their lives

Robia58@gmail.com www.crrccenters.org Thank you! Robia58@gmail.com www.crrccenters.org