Interim Warning Procedures and the Communication Plan for the Interim Tsunami Advisory Information Service Dr. Charles McCreery, Director NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center NOAA Richard H. Hagemeyer Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Ewa Beach, Hawaii USA T. Hachimine, Director Japan Tsunami Warning Center Tokyo, Japan

PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES FOR PACIFIC EVENTS SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSESSEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTSSEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS DECISION-MAKING PROCESSESDECISION-MAKING PROCESSES MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATIONMESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

PTWC KEY OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES FOR INDIAN OCEAN REGION EVENTS SEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSESSEISMIC DATA COLLECTION & ANALYSES SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES MESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATIONMESSAGE CREATION & DISSEMINATION

Bulletin TypeFrequency of Bulletin Tsunami Information Bulletin 1 or 2 times per year Local Tsunami Watch Once every 25 years Regional Tsunami Watch Once every 25 years Ocean-Wide Tsunami Watch Once every 8 years Frequency of Each Type of Bulletin (based on last 100 years of events)

Seismic criteria for PTWC IO Advisories DepthLocation(Mw)Tsunami PotentialBulletin Type < 100 km Under or very near the sea 6.5 to 7.0 Very small potential for a destructive local tsunami Information Bulletin 7.1 to 7.5 Potential for a destructive local tsunami Local Tsunami Watch 7.6 to 7.8 Potential for a destructive regional tsunami Regional Tsunami Watch ≥ 7.9Potential for a destructive ocean-wide tsunami Ocean-wide Tsunami Watch Inland 6.5No tsunami potentialInformation Bulletin ≥ 100 km All Locations ≥ 6.5No tsunami potentialInformation Bulletin

PTWC Global Seismic Network

P-WAVE TRAVEL TIMES FOR 12/26/04 EARTHQUAKE

INTERACTIVE TOOL TO DETERMINE M wp MOMENT MAGNITUDE

PERFORMANCE OF PTWC Mwp M wp (PTWC) Mw (Harvard)

ISSUE TIME OF PTWC INITIAL BULLETINS FOR PACIFIC TELESEISMIC EARTHQUAKES

Sea Level Stations currently contributing data to PTWC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0117Z 11 APR 2005 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN... THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES NORTH 97.5 EAST LOCATION - NORTHERN SUMATERA INDONESIA MAGNITUDE Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin

EVALUATION A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA. HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT. Sample Tsunami Information Bulletin (cont’d)

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0354Z 11 APR 2005 THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.... A LOCAL TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT... A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDONESIA FOR OTHER AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION, THIS MESSAGE IS AN ADVISORY ONLY. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME Z 11 APR 2005 COORDINATES NORTH 97.5 EAST LOCATION - NORTHERN SUMATERA INDONESIA MAGNITUDE Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER MALE 4.2N 73.5E 0448Z 0.19M 14MIN COLOMBO 6.9N 79.8E 0345Z 0.15M 22MIN TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT AMPL - AMPLITUDE IN METERS FROM MIDDLE TO CREST OR MIDDLE TO TROUGH OR HALF OF THE CREST TO TROUGH PER - PERIOD OF TIME FROM ONE WAVE CREST TO THE NEXT EVALUATION SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES. NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL SEA LEVEL CHANGES. DUE TO ONLY LIMITED SEA LEVEL DATA FROM THE REGION IT IS NOT POSSIBLE FOR THIS CENTER TO RAPIDLY NOR ACCURATELY EVALUATE THE THE STRENGTH OF A TSUNAMI IF ONE HAS BEEN GENERATED. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (con’d)

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE TSUNAMI WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR. LOCATION COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME INDONESIA SIMEULUE 2.5N 96.0E 0134Z 11 APR SIBERUT 1.5S 98.7E 0144Z 11 APR PADANG 0.9S 100.1E 0214Z 11 APR BANDA ACEH 5.5N 95.1E 0223Z 11 APR BENGKULU 3.9S 102.0E 0238Z 11 APR BANDAR LAMPUNG 6.0S 105.5E 0338Z 11 APR CILACAP 7.8S 108.9E 0351Z 11 APR BALI 9.0S 115.5E 0433Z 11 APR BELAWAN 3.8N 98.8E 0544Z 11 APR KUPANG 10.0S 123.4E 0549Z 11 APR THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT. Sample Local Tsunami Watch Supplement (cont’d)

PTWC Preliminary Forecast Points

FORECAST POINTS USED TO DETERMINE IF AN AREA IS IN A WATCHUSED TO DETERMINE IF AN AREA IS IN A WATCH TSUNAMI ETA’S FOR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN IN BULLETINS IF AREA IS IN A WATCHTSUNAMI ETA’S FOR FORECAST POINTS GIVEN IN BULLETINS IF AREA IS IN A WATCH PRELIMINARY ONES TAKEN FROM ATLAS – NEEDS REVIEW BY MEMBER STATESPRELIMINARY ONES TAKEN FROM ATLAS – NEEDS REVIEW BY MEMBER STATES SHOULD BE RECOGNIZABLE PLACESSHOULD BE RECOGNIZABLE PLACES NEED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF COASTS - ONE EVERY FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERSNEED ADEQUATE COVERAGE OF COASTS - ONE EVERY FEW HUNDRED KILOMETERS NOT TOO MANY OR BULLETINS TOO LONGNOT TOO MANY OR BULLETINS TOO LONG

Bulletin TypeWMO IdentifierPurpose Tsunami Information WEIO23 PHEBAdvise Government Agencies Tsunami WatchWEIO21 PHEBAdvise Government Agencies Tsunami InformationWEIO33 PHEB (ready but not used) Advise the Public and Media Tsunami WatchWEIO31 PHEB (ready but not used) Advise the Public and Media Earthquake Information SEIO61 PHEB (ready but not used) Exchange of initial earthquake params WMO (GTS) PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS FOR PTWC PRODUCTS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

COMMUNICATIONS PLAN for the INTERIM TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION SERVICE GENERAL REFERENCE MANUAL FOR THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION SERVICEGENERAL REFERENCE MANUAL FOR THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION SERVICE DESCRIPTION OF WARNING CENTERS’ PROCEDURES FOR ISSUING BULLETINSDESCRIPTION OF WARNING CENTERS’ PROCEDURES FOR ISSUING BULLETINS DESCRIPTION OF BULLETINS AND THEIR MEANINGDESCRIPTION OF BULLETINS AND THEIR MEANING DESCRIPTION OF COMMUNICATION METHODS FOR MESSAGE DISSEMINATIONDESCRIPTION OF COMMUNICATION METHODS FOR MESSAGE DISSEMINATION REFERENCE FOR DESIGNATED CONTACT POINTS OF EACH COUNTRYREFERENCE FOR DESIGNATED CONTACT POINTS OF EACH COUNTRY

COMMUNICATIONS METHODS FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN KEEP IT SIMPLER THAN IN THE PACIFICKEEP IT SIMPLER THAN IN THE PACIFIC GTS AS THE BACKBONE SYSTEMGTS AS THE BACKBONE SYSTEM TELEFAX AND AS ALTERNATE METHODSTELEFAX AND AS ALTERNATE METHODS CONFIRMATION OF RECEIPT?CONFIRMATION OF RECEIPT? PERSON-TO-PERSON TELEPHONE CONTACT SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED, BUT MAY BE USEDPERSON-TO-PERSON TELEPHONE CONTACT SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED, BUT MAY BE USED

MEDIA NOTIFICATION MEDIA CAN AND WILL SUBSCRIBE TO PRODUCTS AND REPORT ON THEMMEDIA CAN AND WILL SUBSCRIBE TO PRODUCTS AND REPORT ON THEM MEDIA CAN BE PARTNER TO QUICKLY ALERT PUBLICMEDIA CAN BE PARTNER TO QUICKLY ALERT PUBLIC ACTIVATE PUBLIC / MEDIA PRODUCTS?ACTIVATE PUBLIC / MEDIA PRODUCTS? CONTROL OF PUBLIC / MEDIA MESSAGECONTROL OF PUBLIC / MEDIA MESSAGE WHAT WOULD BE THE MESSAGE?WHAT WOULD BE THE MESSAGE?

MONTHLY COMMUNICATION TESTS IDENTIFY THE MOST EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION METHODSIDENTIFY THE MOST EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION METHODS VERIFY MESSAGE CIRCUITS WORKING (PRIMARY AND SECONDARY)VERIFY MESSAGE CIRCUITS WORKING (PRIMARY AND SECONDARY) EXERCISE THE SYSTEMEXERCISE THE SYSTEM MAINTAIN AWARENESS OF THE HAZARDMAINTAIN AWARENESS OF THE HAZARD

TEST...TSUNAMI DUMMY – COMMUNICATIONS TEST...TEST PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 0315Z 11 APR 2005 FROM: PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN EWA BEACH HAWAII TO: TSUNAMI CONTACT POINTS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTRIES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION AUSTRALIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT BANGLADESH – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT FRANCE – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT INDIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT INDONESIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT IRAN – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT KENYA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MADAGASCAR – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MALAYSIA – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MALDIVES – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT MAURITIUS – NAME OF DESIGNATED CONTACT POINT. --- ALL OTHERS PLEASE DISREGARD --- Sample Communication Test

SUBJECT: TSUNAMI DUMMY (COMMUNICATION TEST). THIS IS A TEST TO VERIFY COMMUNICATION LINKS AND DETERMINE TRANSMISSION TIMES INVOLVED IN DISSEMINATION OF TSUNAMI ADVISORY INFORMATION TO THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION. RECIPIENTS ARE REQUESTED TO PLEASE RESPOND BACK TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER. THE RESPONSE SHOULD INCLUDE 1 - NAME OF OFFICE THAT RECEIVED THIS TEST 2 - METHOD OR METHODS BY WHICH OFFICE RECEIVED THIS TEST 3 - INCLUDE ADDRESS OR FAX NUMBER OF EACH METHOD 3 - TIME OF RECEIPT OF THIS TEST BY EACH METHOD PLEASE RESPOND VIA ONE OF THE FOLLOWING - TELEFAX THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THIS COMMUNICATION TEST. Sample Communication Test (cont’d)

7. Tsunami Watch Information on M8.5 Sumatra Earthquake on 28 Mar. TSUNAMI WATCH INFOMATION NUMBER 001 ISSUED BY SEISMOLOGICAL AND VOLCANOLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (JMA) ISSUED AT MAR 2005 (UTC) 1. EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION ORIGIN TIME : MAR 2005 (UTC) COORDINATES : 2.3 NORTH 97.1 EAST LOCATION : NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA MAGNITUDE : POSSIBILITY TSUNAMI GENERATION THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN-WIDE DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI IN THE INDIAN OCEAN Earthquake Information Possibility of Tsunami Generation * Tsunami Watch Information is considered subordinate to the Tsunami Warning in terms of both accuracy and timeliness 7 Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April 2005

3. ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME ONE HOUR OR LESS INDIA: ALL COASTS OF ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS INDONESIA: INDIAN OCEAN COAST OF SUMATRA ONE HOUR TO THREE HOURS INDIA: BENGAL BAY COAST SRI LANKA: ALL COASTS THAILAND: MALACCA COAST AUSTRALIA: COCOS ISLANDS --- *snip* --- *TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME IS ESTIMATED ONLY FROM EARTHQUAKE DATA AND INDICATES THE TIME LAPSE BETWEEN ORIGIN TIME AND TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME *THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS. 9. Tsunami Watch Information on M8.5 Sumatra Earthquake on 28 Mar (continuation) Estimated Tsunami Travel Time 9

11. Reception of the Tsunami Watch Information -Registration Designated governmental organization(s) /department(s) /officer(s) - Available means of communication 1. Internet mail 2. Global Telecommunication System (GTS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 3. Facsimile transmission - Test Message Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April

TSUNAMI WATCH INFOMATION NUMBER 001 ISSUED BY SEISMOLOGICAL AND VOLCANOLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (JMA) ISSUED AT APR 2005 (UTC) 1.EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION ORIGIN TIME : APR 2005 (UTC) COORDINATES : 1.1 SOUTH 99.4 EAST LOCATION : SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA MAGNITUDE : EVALUATION THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DESTRUCTIVE LOCAL TSUNAMI IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. *THIS WILL BE THE FINAL INFORMATION UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ESTIMATED TSUNAMI TRAVEL TIME BY RE-EVALUATION OF THE EARTHQUAKE OR THERE ARE REPORTS ON TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS. ************************************************************ ***** RECIPIENTS ARE INVITED TO CHECK THE MARCH 2005 ISSUE OF THE WORLD WEATHER WATCH OPERATIONAL NEWSLETTER FOR THE OBJECTIVES OF TWI. ************************************************************ ***** 12. Tsunami Watch Information for the M 6.8 Sumatra Earthquake on 10th APR 2005 Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April

is expected to be issued with a target of less than 20 to 30 minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake, depending on the traffic condition of communication and the availability of seismic data. The Tsunami Watch Information will be made as amendments and/or updates in consideration of newly available seismic data and reports on actual sea-level observations Subsequent Issues 13.Timing of issuance of Tsunami Watch Information 13 Japan Meteorological Agency 14 April 2005