Impact of financial liberalisation on South Africa Seeraj Mohamed IDEAS Conference Chennai, 25 January 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of financial liberalisation on South Africa Seeraj Mohamed IDEAS Conference Chennai, 25 January 2010

Introduction Democracy provided opportunity for addressing legacy of apartheid & weak industrial structure dominated by mining and minerals industry Inadequate regulation of finance has –Obstructed governments attempts to redress socio- economic problems inherited from apartheid past –Led to massive misallocation of capital –Supported deindustrialisation and made the economy more dependent on mining & minerals –Supported the wrong type of growth based on speculation and debt-driven consumption –Increased financial fragility and dependence on short- term capital flows

Credit extension to Private sector increased about 22% from BUT Private business investment increased by only 5%

Growth in household consumption

Increased use of derivatives: increase financial systemic risks in SA

Allocation of capital by private sector: - mostly for credit cards, car finance &mortgages; - mostly for short-term and collaterised debt

And, even fixed investment is misallocated

Services Employment

Manufacturing Employment

Dependence on MEC sectors intensifies from 1990s Chart: Value added, (Source: Quantec)

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