Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 16 March 2006

Norges Bank 2 Growth projections GDP growth. Per cent Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 3 CPI/HICP core 1) 12-month change. January 2002 – January 2006 US Japan Euro area UK Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy, Japan: CPI excl. fresh food Euro area and UK: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Sweden;: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Sweden

Norges Bank 4 Actual and expected key rates 1) Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 14 March January 2006 Sweden UK 1) Not adjusted for credit risk

Norges Bank 5 Yields on 10-year government bonds. 2 January 2004 –14 March 2006 Germany US Japan Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin Norway

Norges Bank 6 Developments on stock markets internationally 2 January 2002 = January 2002 –14 March 2006 Source: EcoWin

Norges Bank 7 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 –14 March March 2006 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 27 October IR 3/05

Norges Bank 8 Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude. 3 January 2004 –14 March 2006 Delivery in 6 years Delivery in 1 month Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

Norges Bank 9 US commercial crude oil stocks In million barrels Highest and lowest values Source: EIA Strategic reserves Full capacity

Norges Bank 10 Natural gas prices USD per 1000 Sm 3. Monthly and quarterly figures. January 2003 – February 2006 Sources: EcoWin, ICE, NYMEX, Statistics Norway, Statoil, Norsk Hydro and Norges Bank Norwegian export price USA UK Average Statoil and Hydro

Norges Bank 11 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2008 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank I-44 2), (right-hand scale) Weighted 3- month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 14 March January October ) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate 2) The last observation is the average for March 2006.

Norges Bank 12 CPI-ATE 1) Total and by supplier sector 2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 3/ month change. Per cent. January February 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1) A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January ) Norges Bank's calculations

Norges Bank 13 Indicators of underlying inflation 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – February 2006 Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median CPI-ATE 1) Trimmed mean 1) A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January CPI

Norges Bank 14 Number of unemployed (LFS), registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes In thousands. Seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour

Norges Bank 15 Annual wage growth Per cent – 2005 Source: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements Commercial and savings banks Manufacturing white collar workers Construction Manufacturing employees Hotel and restaurant

Norges Bank 16 Total Source: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank Household trend indicator Unadjusted figures. 99 Q1 – 06 Q1 Own financial situation Norwegian economy

Norges Bank 17 House prices Percentage change on same month previous year. January 1998 – February 2006 Source: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)

Norges Bank 18 Housing starts Area in 1000 m². Seasonally adjusted and trend. January 2000 – January 2006 Source: Statistics Norway Seasonally adjusted Trend

Norges Bank 19 Commercial building starts Area in 1000 m ². January 2001 – December 2005 Source: Statistics Norway Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving average

Norges Bank 20 Credit growth Total debt mainland Norway (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2). 12-month growth. Per cent Source: Norges Bank Households (C2) Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3) Total debt mainland Norway (C3)

Norges Bank 21 Capacity utilisation Share of Norges Bank's regional network reporting that they have some or considerable problems in accommodating an increase in demand Source: Norges Bank

Norges Bank 22 Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market expectations regarding the sight deposit rate 1) Per cent. 06 Q1 – 09 Q4 1) Derived from estimated forward rates. The sight deposit rate was reduced by a credit risk premium and technical difference of 0.20 percentage point. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 27 Feb – 10 Mar 06. Source: Norges Bank Baseline scenario Market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate

Norges Bank 23 Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 1/06 Import- weighted exchange rate CPI-ATE Output gap Sight deposit rate Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank