SoE 2011 – Atmosphere Chapter - Overview This presentation is one of a series of Australia State of the Environment 2011 (SoE 2011) presentations given by the SoE Committee members and departmental staff following the release of the SoE This material is provided as an overview and the full report should be referred to for understanding the context of this information. For more information please refer to: Or contact the SoE team via

New cover page Presentation on SoE 2011 Atmosphere Chapter Photo: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft

State of the Environment reporting A report on the Australian environment must be tabled in Parliament every five years No current regulations regarding scope, content or process All reports so far written by independent committees

Purpose of SoE 2011 Provide relevant and useful information on environmental issues to the public and decision- makers... … to raise awareness and support more informed environmental management decisions … … leading to more sustainable use and effective conservation of environmental assets.

State of the Environment 2011 Committee Chair Tom Hatton (Director, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country) Members Steven Cork (research ecologist and futurist) Peter Harper (Deputy Australian Statistician) Rob Joy (School of Global Studies, Social Science & Planning, RMIT) Peter Kanowski (Fenner School of Environment & Society, ANU) Richard Mackay (heritage specialist, Godden Mackay Logan) Neil McKenzie (Chief, CSIRO Land and Water) Trevor Ward (marine and fisheries ecologist) Barbara Wienecke – ex officio (Australian Antarctic Division, DSEWPaC)

What’s new in 2011? Improved relevance to decision makers More detailed information Discussion of the major drivers of change Wide range of credible resources used in the analyses Report-card style assessments of condition, pressures and management effectiveness Discussions of current resilience and future risks Outlooks

Quality and credibility Independence – written by an independent committee with relevant expertise, tasked with advocating for ‘accurate, robust and meaningful environmental reporting and identification of policy issues, but not for any particular policy position’ Authors sought best available evidence from credible sources Extensive consultation Workshops to determine consensus in expert opinion where evidence low Transparency about quality of evidence and level of consensus Peer reviewed (47+ reviewers of chapters and supplementary materials)

SoE 2011 Products Full report – hard copy and online Summary with 17 headlines Nine theme chapters – each with key findings Report cards In-Brief – hard copy and online 50 page summary of full report Additional online materials Commissioned reports Workshop reports Additional tables and figures Peer review information

Assessment summaries in the report

Drivers chapter – context for rest of SoE How are a changing climate, population growth and economic growth creating pressures on our environment?

SoE 2011 Headlines 17 headlines in summary chapter give a high level overview of the big issues

Key Findings (in theme chapters) ‘key findings’ give an overview of more specific conclusions for each theme

What is the general state of the environment? Much of Australia is in good condition shape or improving  Wind erosion has decreased  Some major threats to vegetation cover are lessening  Water consumption has fallen considerably in recent years  Many urban air pollutants are on the decline  Use of public transport is on the rise Other parts are in poor condition or deteriorating  The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing billions of tonnes of ice a year  Soil acidification and pests and weeds are affecting large areas of the continent  Our natural and cultural heritage continues to be threatened

Drivers of environmental change The principal drivers of pressures on Australia’s environment—and its future condition—are climate variability and change, population growth and economic growth It is likely that we are already seeing the effects of climate change in Australia The Australian economy is projected to grow by 2.7% per year until 2050 Under the base scenario, Australia’s population of 22.2 million people in 2010 is projected to grow to 35.9 million by 2050 We have opportunities to decouple population and economic growth from pressure on our environment

Persistent pressures on our environment Past decisions and practices have left ongoing impacts on our environment  Introduction of feral animals and weeds  Land clearing  Pollution  Unsustainable water resource management  Intense harvest of fish stocks  Lack of integrated and supported management Our changing climate, and growing population and economy, are now confronting us with new challenges

About the atmosphere chapter in SoE 2011: What it is: a two part report, the first looking at the state of climate and climate change, and the second at ambient air quality and other atmospheric issues A 122 page assessment of state and trends, pressures, risks and resilience, management effectiveness and outlooks for Australia’s atmosphere Includes over 65 figures, tables and images, 11 summary assessment tables, and more than 200 references

Key findings Earth is warming Large step-changes in climate may occur It is likely we are already seeing changes in Australia’s variable climate Major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed nationally and internationally We will need both a national approach and approaches at the state and territory level to mitigate and adapt to climate change

Key findings continued... Despite the success of the Montreal Protocol in controlling ozone depleting substances (ODSs), depletion of stratospheric ozone will continue for some decades. Ambient air quality in Australia’s major urban centres is generally good, but the impact of air quality on health is still a matter of serious concern.

Earth is warming

State of Australia’s climate: temperature changes 1970–2010

State of Australia’s climate: rainfall changes 1970–2010

The millennium drought: rainfall deficiencies 1 April 1997–31 March 2010

the drought breaks: rainfall from 1 March 2010 to 28 February 2011

Pressures affecting Australia’s climate “Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2006

Pressures affecting Australia’s climate: GHGs

Greenhouse gas emissions per person

Fuel mix contributing to total primary energy supply, 2008

Effects of climate change on human health

Vulnerability to climate change aggregated for key sectors in the Australia and New Zealand region, allowing for current coping range and adaptive capacity

Assessment summary — pressures affecting Australia’s climate

Assessment summary — effectiveness of climate change management

Resilience of Australia’s climate Significant global climate change has typically occurred over thousands of years, rather than over decades or centuries The scale of human activities is now challenging Earth’s short- term resilience and driving change in the global climate at rates unprecedented in recent geological history In the context of its highly developed economy and robust system of governance, Australia is well placed to adapt to climate change BUT Australia is significantly vulnerable at relatively low levels of temperature rise in key areas

Risks to Australia’s climate Warmer and drier conditions over much of southern Australia are likely to lead to reduced soil moisture Extreme events, such as floods, droughts, heatwaves and fires, are likely to increase in frequency and/or severity

Current and emerging risks to Australia’s climate

Australia’s capacity to adapt Our capacity to adapt to a changing climate will depend on:  the rate of change  the degree of exposure to the effects of change, which will vary geographically and from sector to sector, and between different groups in society  the strength and diversity of the economy  our capacity to innovate and to change our behaviour  our ability to expand our knowledge base and apply that knowledge in planning and decision-making  a willingness to accept uncertainty and not to use it as a reason for postponing necessary action.

Ambient air quality and other atmospheric issues Part two of the atmosphere chapter deals with aspects other than climate:  stratospheric ozone  ambient air quality  indoor air quality

Stratospheric ozone: state and trends “..the atmospheric abundances of nearly all major Ozone Depleting Substances that were initially controlled under the Montreal Protocol are declining. Nevertheless, ozone depletion will continue for many more decades because several key ODSs last a long time in the atmosphere after emissions end” (World Meteorological Organisation Scientific assessment of Ozone depletion, 2010)

Effect of the Montreal Protocol on levels of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere

Depth of the stratospheric ozone layer: the ozone hole over Antarctica

State and trends of Australia’s atmosphere – ambient air quality The main focus of public concern over air pollution is its short- term and long-term effects on human health Urban air pollution is a significant cause of death and illness in the community (one estimate of close to 3000 deaths due to urban air pollution in 2003) Two-thirds of these deaths were attributable to long-term exposure to air pollutants, with the elderly most affected. A range of adverse health effects is associated with air pollution

Causes of approx 3000 deaths attributed to long-term exposure to urban air pollution, 2003

Health effects and populations at risk from air pollutants

National air quality standards In 1998, the Australian and state and territory governments adopted a set of national air quality standards—the National Environment Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure (AAQ NEPM). Standards cover the six most common air pollutants (‘criteria pollutants’)—carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ozone, lead and particulate matter smaller than 10 micrometres (PM 10 ), which can be inhaled directly into the lungs (since expanded to include fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM 2.5 )

The air quality index

Applying a graded report-card approach to Australia’s urban air quality (example)

Pressures affecting stratospheric ozone, ambient air quality and indoor air quality: an assessment

Management effectiveness: stratospheric ozone Good understanding of the issues. Management considered very effective. Trend Planning, inputs and processes to manage ozone depleting substances all rated very effective. Trend Outputs and outcomes of management to control ODSs considered very effective. Trend

Management effectiveness: pollution Management of industrial point sources, diffuse motor vehicular sources is rated very effective Management of diffuse commercial and domestic sources is rated effective Management of indoor air quality and of diffuse pollution from planned burning is considered partially effective, planning around indoor air quality is rated ineffective Recent trends for management of atmospheric pollution are all rated stable or improving

Resilience of Australia’s atmosphere Our urban airsheds are highly resilient, air quality returning to normal as local conditions change BUT Human resilience to the effects of prolonged or recurring exposure to air pollutants is limited

Current and emerging risks to Australia’s atmosphere for stratospheric ozone, ambient and indoor air quality

Outlook for Australia’s atmosphere: direct effects of pressures on climate By 2030, projections show average temperatures rising by 0.6–1.5ºC, additional to the existing rise of around 0.7ºC since 1960 By 2070, if growth in GHG emissions continues in line with past trends, projected warming will be in the range of 2.2– 5.0ºC Southern Australia is likely to experience reduced winter rain, and spring rainfall declines in southern and eastern areas. In south-west Western Australia, reductions in autumn rainfall are likely, together with the existing decline in winter rain. Northern Australia is likely to experience an increase in annual and summer rainfall

Outlook for Australia’s atmosphere: stratospheric ozone, ambient and indoor air quality Thanks to the Montreal Protocol’s influence in controlling ozone depleting substances, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover to 1980 benchmark levels by around mid-century The outlook for Australia’s urban air quality is generally good There are limited Australian data on which to assess the outlook for indoor air quality, but some grounds for suggesting an improving trend

Other SoE 2011 content related to Atmosphere Atmosphere and climate have links to all other themes in SoE 2011, but climate change in particular is recognised as a principle driver of Australia’s environment

Intentions and impacts of SoE Based on available information and expert opinion drawn from sources that are referenced in the report Was designed to raise awareness and assist decision-makers Highlights current issues that will require management responses to influence projected trends Provides critical information, but can support change only if decision-makers consider and use it

Photo: Aerial view of the Pilbara, by Andrew Griffiths, Lensaloft For more information To order copies phone: or read it online: