How to get the Future of Tourism out of Today’s Consumer Surveys - Prospects for Senior and Kids Travel in Germany - Martin Lohmann & Johanna Danielsson This document is part of a presentation and not complete without the oral explanations. © with the authors, Lüneburg/Arjeplog, 2004 Dept. of Business Psychology University of Applied Sciences Wilschenbrucher Weg 84 a D Lüneburg research+development Pipudden 2 S Arjeplog

► Demographic trends and their impact on tourism demand ► The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) travel survey ► Holiday trips of seniors ► Holiday trips with children ► Conclusion Agenda

Demographic Trends ► People are getting older. ► Number of children is declining; Dissolution of traditional family patterns. ? How will demographic changes influence consumer behaviour?  Tourism consumer surveys can provide appropriate data.

The “Reiseanalyse” ► The “Reiseanalyse” (RA) is a yearly (since 1970) representative survey, ► covering holiday travel behaviour, intentions and attitudes of Germans, ► conducted every year with a comparable set of questions and based on a random sample of 7,500 face-to-face interviews. ► Users: tour operators, hotel chains, regional, national and international tourism organisations / ministries and other companies in the tourism industry. F.U.R

Demographic Trends Tourism consumer surveys can be helpful in providing data on: ► the importance a segment has, ► the specific behaviour patterns of a segment, ► the direction and degree of change. Two examples …

Holiday trips of seniors First Example: Senior Travellers

Holiday trips of seniors Growing number of senior citizens = major marketing challenge Research questions: ► What structural changes are to expect in the “tourist society”? ► Less trips due to a lower travel propensity of elderly people? ► Will future seniors travel differently?

Holiday trips of seniors Change of holiday travel propensity 1972 / 2003 Holiday travel propensityChange age group /2003 <29 years % % % % 70+ years % All % Figures for German population aged 14 years or older; in % of age groups Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA

Holiday trips of seniors Change of holiday travel propensity 1972 / 2003 Holiday travel propensityChange age group /2003 <29 years % % % % 70+ years % All % Figures for German population aged 14 years or older; in % of age groups Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA Old people travel less

Holiday trips of seniors Change of holiday travel propensity 1972 / 2003 Holiday travel propensityChange age group /2003 <29 years % % % % 70+ years % All % Figures for German population aged 14 years or older; in % of age groups Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA Old people travel less ≠ people travel less when getting older

Holiday trips of seniors ► Necessity of a longitudinal study for monitoring travel patterns throughout life-cycles.  We have re-analyzed 33 years of RA data, by following the cohorts (= ascending series of age groups) during their life cycle and looking at basic indicators for their holiday travel behaviour.

Holiday trips of seniors Holiday Travel Propensity for two German generations over time Year population travel propensity (%) cohort 25 to 55 years age travel propensity cohort 45 to 75 years age travel propensity Figures for West-Germany; % of age groups Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA

Holiday trips of seniors Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA % Holiday Travel Propensity for two German generations over time 25 yrs. 55 yrs. 45 yrs. 75 yrs.

Holiday trips of seniors Travel behaviour of future German senior generations 75-year-olds in Total in the age group in mn Travel propensity in % Travellers in mn Destination of main holiday trip in % Domestic Abroad Note: All figures for West-Germany only; 75-year-olds = years of age at a certain year. Figures for 2008 and 2018 are estimations based on the rates of the age groups and today (2003). Own calculations based on F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2004 and pop. predictions for Germany

Holiday trips of seniors Lessons learned: ► People (cohorts) stick to their travel behaviour when getting older. ► Future senior travellers will behave differently than today’s. ► But this change is within limits foreseeable: more senior trips with different preferences (reasons: demographic change + different behaviour patterns of cohorts + rigidity). ► Presented approach is a useful tool for tourism marketing.

Holiday trips of seniors Second Example: Trips with children Holiday trips with children

Research questions: ► Will new segments replace the old- fashioned family trip? ► Are tailor-made offers for single parents profitable for the tourism industry? ► Do one-kid-families need more attention? ► Will holiday trips for seniors travelling with (grand-)children meet a growing demand?

Holiday trips with children Methodological approach: Segmentation ► Volume of segments in society and in tourism demand?: How many? ► Development of segments?: demographic trends? ► Tourist consumer behaviour of segments?: Anything specific?

Holiday trips with children trips without kids 78% trips with kids > 13 yrs. 22% n = 8,067; all holiday trips German Holiday Trips 2003 ► 66 mn trips, 14 mn with kids = 22%; share has been stable for more than a decade ► Trend in society: - 8% less children , rising share of 1 kid households ► In tourism: - 8% ≈ 13 mn trips, but actual decrease will be less Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2004:

Holiday trips with children 4% 9% 59% Segmentation of Holiday Trips 2002 Data source: F.U.R, Reiseanalyse RA 2003 %

Holiday trips with children Single parent holiday with kids: ► Less than 4% of all kids-trips (0.5 mn trips); mostly don’t travel as single parents; even with the share of single parents in society rising (+12%) small volume in tourism (0.6 mn trips) Seniors + kids ► Relevant share (2003: 12%); growing interest & possibilities; specific behaviour. One-kid-trips ► Already the standard (59%); further increase to be expected; specific behaviour.

► Will new segments replace the old- fashioned family trip?: No ► Are tailor-made offers for single parents profitable for the tourism industry?: No ► Do one-kid-families need more attention?: Yes! ► Will holiday trips for seniors travelling with (grand-)children meet a growing demand?: Yes! Holiday trips with children

Conclusion ► Consumer survey data can be useful in determining trends in tourism, their size, speed and relevance. ► It thus allows for a realistic view of the actual situation and enables us to draw appropriate conclusions for the future.

Conclusion This way of consumer survey data based trend research in tourism helps to understand the dynamics and “mechanics” within the segments.

Thank you for listening