Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate change and tourism Norwegian vulnerability and the case of winter tourism in Voss Guro Aandahl 12th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality Research, 3rd October 2003, Stavanger

Global average temperature since 1850 Source: Climatic Research Unit og UK Met Office/Hadley Centre

Map of Europe in a global climate model

Datapoints in a downscaled model and Norwegian municipalitites

What can we expect (RegClim) The larger picture is more robust than local climatic variations Different models give very different results for the patterns of atmospheric circulation, which is important for local patterns of wind and precipitation The models give quite similar results for decadal temperature increase in Scandinavia Most robust scenario: Increased precipitation in late autumn and winter, and increased tempteratures in winter source: Hanssen-Bauer, RegClim

CICERO’s vulnerability mapping To develop indicators of vulnerability in Norwegian municipalitites and map these using a GIS Sectors: Agriculture, winter tourism and forestry Discussed the maps and indicators with focus groups in selected municipalities

Voss inhabitants Tourism employs ca 7 % directly (in hotels and restaurants) Varied local climate, from coastal to inland Topographic variation, from 50 m.a.s to ca 1000 m.a.s

Relevant climate parametres for winter toursim Duration of winter season Snow depth, absolute change Snow depth, relative change

RegClim’s downscaled climate scenario for Norway A regionally downscaled climate model We compare mean values for the years to mean values for the years

Change in duration of winter (days/year <0˚C)

Snow depth change (average Jan, Feb and March, in cm and %)

Combined index of exposure to climate change

Voss vs competing destinations

Climate change in Voss NB. Results from one model. Not a weather forecast! Duration of winter: - 19 days Snow depth, absolute change: - 85 cm Snow depth, relative change: - 49 %

Changes in precipitation, Voss (RegClim)

Changes in wind force, Voss (RegClim)

Adaptation ”Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær.”

Adaptive capacity and vulnerability Vulnerability = the risk of being exposed to a stress and lack of ability to cope with such a stress without suffering damaging loss

Indicators of adaptive capacity in Norwegian municipalities Sensitivity –Employment in hotels and restaurants Demographic factors –Age composition of working population (55-66 yrs as % of 20-66) –Migration (trend the last 10 yrs) –Dependency rate (children/teenagers and elderly as % of population) Economic factors –Tax income per capita –Government transfers per capita –Employment prognosis

Climate sensitivity: Employment in Hotels and restaurants

Demographic and economic factors

Adaptive capacity winter tourism – composite index

Exposure and adaptive capacity – a comparison

Input and conclusions from focus group interview 1970s: Voss biggest winter sports destination in Norway 1988  : the winter disappeared  End of 1990s: steady decline 1999/2000: Investment in Snow machines, mill NOK (Govt contribution 7,5)

Input and conclusions from focus group interview Climate in competing destinations Climate in main markets (Bergen etc) Winter vs summer –Tour operators want both seasons

Climate and place identity From