The SEAPLANE Project 3. November 2005, Bergamo Dr Benedikt Mandel MKmetric Gesellschaft für Systemplanung mbH, Karlsruhe Activity 3 Airport passenger market analysis Realisation of suggested Routes Further opportunities for airports

Tasks MKmetric November 2005  Establishing the simulation framework  Ex post Simulation of air passenger market potential - Computation - Analysis - Reference year 2000  Ex ante Simulation of air passenger market potential - Computation - Analysis - Forecast horizon 2006  Development of an Action Plan for inauguration of flights

Input MKmetric November 2005  Socio-economy data (e.g. population, economic structure)  Consideration of urbanisation and land use, infrastructure and motorization  Consideration of political constraints and transport policy in all countries  Consideration of competing transport modes in all countries  Data on the NUTS 3 level for EU and according to the distance from EU with growing country agglomerations

Methodology MKmetric November 2005 Socio- economy Ground-based Transport Travel Surveys Reference Status System Approach - Generation - Distribution - Modal Split - Route choice - Assignment Statistics, link counts Workshop input, report & action Plan Matrix Bounding Ex anteEx post Transport Policy

Methodology MKmetric October 2005 i, j  C n Logit Cross elasticity Point elasticity

Specific assumptions MKmetric November 2005 Set up of scenario definitions for ex ante analysis (forecast)  socio-economy, according to workshop and regional partners  infrastructure update to 2004 including indications of regional partners  network assumptions according to schedule summer 2004 ex VXO-CPH  regionalisation incl. update for UK and split up of Møre og Romsdal area Forecast is for 2006 (perspective for inauguration of new routes) Economic limitations for inaugurating a new route  annual demand > 50 tsd. “weighted” passengers (5000 for charter)  business pax are counted twice,  transfer pax count 50% when travelling for private reasons  for charter and low cost flights no transfer passengers are counted  for charter flights no business travellers are counted  no double count for business travellers on low cost flights

Output I MKmetric November 2005  Airports:  Oostende - OST, BE  Hannover - HAJ, DE  Bremen - BRE, DE  Groningen - GRQ, NL  Aalesund - AES, NO  Kristiansand - KRS, NO  Stavanger - SVG, NO  Inverness - INV, UK  Kristianstad - KID, SE  Växjö - VXO, SE  Time horizon - Scenario:  Ex post  Ex ante  Promotion:  European Commission  Workshop  Via partner regions and partner airports  Action plan:  Content - airport, region, routes  Lay out - two pages per route

Output II MKmetric November 2005 Analysis by airport:total number of passengers p.a., conditional aircraft movements, catchment and traffic information, technical and commercial key figures. Analysis by route:new routes, total number of passengers p.a., structure of the demand, type and structure of service, catchment and sheaf of the route, market penetration figures. Analysis by region:socio-economic data in total and relative to the catchment, changes in accessibility by air transport, transport key figures.

Improvement of Accessibility by new Routes ____________________________________________________________________________________ MKmetric GmbH November 2005

Action Plans ____________________________________________________________________________________ MKmetric GmbH November 2005 description of the airport and the region incl. status quo catchment with socio-economic data for each feasible new route  total demand by business / leisure, O&D / transfer passengers  route sheaf for transfer passengers  route specific catchment  suggestions for aircraft / airline / schedule  summary of relevant technical aspects demand forecast for the airport incl. the new routes key figures concerning additional passenger & a/c mileage, fuel consumption, passenger hours saved improvement of accessibility

Action Plan Improvement ____________________________________________________________________________________ MKmetric GmbH November 2005 The Action Plans were presented at the Hannover workshop in The Action Plan issued for Hannover airport has been used as material for the latest ROUTES conference. A review meeting at Hannover will take place in 11/2005 Numerous routes suggested within the project have been set into service. Various responses to the Action Plans lead to an improvement of this form of presenting results, enriched with additional information, to be used within the forthcoming EUROPLANE project, now called Implementation Folder

New Routes inaugurated MKmetric November 2005  1 year ago, more than 90 routes were identified for 2006, 22 of them are or will be in service already 2005:

8 New Routes Inverness MKmetric November 2005

5 New Routes Hannover MKmetric November 2005

5 New Routes Scandinavia MKmetric November 2005

4 New Routes other MKmetric November 2005

Results for Bremen ____________________________________________________________________________________ MKmetric GmbH November 2005

Consultation in Bremen MKmetric November 2005  From 13 suggested routes just 1 is for scheduled service, while all other focus on holiday destinations.  Only 1 of the suggested holiday routes was implemented. In addition the tour operator owing Hapagfly, home base charter carrier at BRE, reorganised its network, meaning a serious reduction of holiday destinations ex BRE in 2006 (and from other airports in.de although high loads)  network carrier reduced their presence at Bremen (outsourcing of hub connections, or give up routes)  new answers have to be found to such challenges: * development of options for new or modified services

Further Options for Routes MKmetric November 2005  Implementation of suggested routes by LCC instead of charter or network carrier, with or without a variation of suggested airport: The suggested flights HAJ - RJK for charter, are actually run by Hapag-Lloyd Express (with medium sized a/c, up to 3 times a week)  New LC services to additional airports in cities already connected to a SEAPLANE airport,like the new flights from Bremen to London Luton by easyJet  Implementation or take over of existing routes by low cost or regional carrier instead of network or charter carrier, with or without code-share / interlining tariffs,...  New routes beyond given limit (50’000 pax) with small a/c ...

Thank you for your attention. MKmetric November 2005