Public Opinion

Gallup Poll: “How satisfied are you with the way democracy works in your country.”

70% Satisfied 30% Unsatisfied

What is Public Opinion? 1. The collective attitude of the citizens on a given issue or question. 2. Difficult to measure 3. Political Elites hold more weight  More knowledgeable, consistent  Influence policy by framing issues

Three Aspects of Public Opinion 1. It can legitimize political authority  Polls allow politicians to claim their policies are correct 2. It can make politicians more responsive to the public  Clinton used the word “education” 43 times in the 1996 debate 3. It can help candidates win campaigns.  Pollsters conduct polls that make them look more popular than they are  Push polling

How Polling Works Reasonable questions Worded fairly Random Samplings—stratification Sampling Errors Exit Polling Accurate since 1952

“The polls indicate we could end up with two candidates in November neither of whom can beat the other.”

“When you quote a Presidential candidate, Gorman, you do not—I repeat—do NOT roll your eyes.”

The Art of Public Polling

Market Testing 1. FDR was the first to use systematic polling 2. JFK was the first to hire a pollster 3. Today, politicians depend on polls  Public opinion can change quickly  In Clinton’s 1 st year in office he conducted more polling and focus group studies than in all 4 years of the Bush Administration Contract with America  Frank Luntz

Five Qualities of Public Opinion 1. Intensity/Saliency  An intense minority can win against a less intense majority  Problem: Polling can’t measure intensity 2. Stability/Fluidity 3. Latency  Don’t know/haven’t made up mind 4. Distribution  Opinion distributed over several positions  Can determine if compromise is an option 5. Opinion-Policy Congruence

Political Socialization 1. The way in which people acquire their sense of political culture and ideology 2. Takes place slowly 3. Starts at a young age

Political Socialization

Factors affecting Socialization 1. Family—children as young as 9 begin to be influenced  Direct  Indirect  91 % of seniors knew the presidential preference of their parents  71 % knew party identification  Only 9% identified with the opposite party  Red Diaper Babies—college radicals in the 1960s were often sons and daughters of radicals 2. Schooling  In school we learn cultural values, language, norms, beliefs, and traditions  These generally include Civility, Order, and Conformity  Nazi Germany; Japan  Higher education trends  Increased education led to increased political activity  Data on college students’ ideology is mixed  Favorable toward business, but not for small government???

3. The Mass Media  Average adult spends 30 hours per week  Children spend more time watching TV than in school  1996 Poll—25% of Americans learn about the candidates from Letterman or Leno 13% said they get most of their political news from MTV What does this tell us about modern politics? 4. Social Class— working class favor social programs Midterm elections—incomes of $29,000 or less supported Democrats; --those with incomes of $75,000 and above favored GOP --Class differences have declined sharply in the professions. --America has much less class consciousness than Europe

5. Religion Jewish voters favor social programs & civil rights, and are generally more liberal, favor Democrats; ’92 and ’96—they voted for Clinton around 80% Religion influences opinion on social issues, not so much other issues 6. Gender—the Gender Gap  Women favor: Social Welfare programs, environmental protection, affirmative action, education  Oppose—defense spending, death penalty  Gap is between 5-12%

The Party Identification of Men and Women:

7. Ethnicity  Since the New Deal, black voters have supported Democrats: 88% supported Democratic congressional candidates  Efficacy—Blacks distrust government more than whites  Narrowing in recent years among the youth 8. Region—South vs. North  South more conservative on issues such as abortion, marijuana, death penalty, school prayer, and rights of the accused  Much more Republican  Cross-cutting cleavages

Generational Gaps on the Issues

Liberals and Conservatives Economic policy: liberals favor jobs for all, subsidized medical care and education, increased taxation of the rich Civil rights: liberals favor strong federal action to desegregate schools, hiring opportunities for minorities, and strict enforcement of civil rights laws Public and political conduct: liberals are tolerant of protest demonstrations, favor legalization of marijuana, and emphasize protecting the rights of the accused

Similar to Socialism and Populism

Political Ideology A person’s beliefs about what role the government should play in our lives and what policies it should pursue

Liberalism Different from “classical liberalism” which stemmed from the 17 th and 18 th centuries. 1930’s FDR’s New Deal changed the definition of liberalism Today it means gov’t ought to be used positively to bring about justice and equality of results Emphasis on progress and equality 17% of population in 1994

Liberalism then and now… Shared Values of the Founders=Classical Liberalism Liberty — religious economic … Equality (Egalitarianism) Individualism Popular Consent Rule of Law Limited Government Thomas Jefferson: "government governs best when it governs least ”

Conservatism Since the 1950s, emphasis has been on smaller government and stronger state’s rights Reaction against FDR, big gov’t Hostility to taxes; Emphasis on morality in social issues Emphasis on liberty 28% of population in 1994

Conservatism then and now… Roots in 17th and 18th century Hamilton, Metternich, Bismarck Strong central government State sponsored religion Purpose of government: Order and safety Economy—regulated (mercantilism)

Liberals and Conservatives Economic policy: liberals favor jobs for all, subsidized medical care and education, increased taxation of the rich Civil rights: liberals favor strong federal action to desegregate schools, hiring opportunities for minorities, and strict enforcement of civil rights laws Public and political conduct: liberals are tolerant of protest demonstrations, favor legalization of marijuana, and emphasize protecting the rights of the accused

Libertarianism Socially liberal, fiscally conservative Government should not regulate personal conduct Repeal of drug, abortion, pornography, and prostitution laws 21% of population in 1994 Laissez faire capitalism

Populism Liberal on economic issues, conservative on social Gov’t should reduce economic inequality, control business Gov’t should regulate personal conduct, be tough on criminals Elimination of CIA, FBI; reduce military 24% of population in 1994

Other options? Socialism Public (collective) ownership of means of production The transitional stage between capitalism and communism Expanded role of government, nationalization of industries, and higher taxes on rich Anarcho-syndicalism Free association based on co-operative labor Abolition of wage system and private property

Ideological Self-Identification

How Liberals and Conservatives Differ

Liberals and Conservative Pure liberals: liberal on both economic and personal conduct issues Pure conservatives: conservative on both economic and personal conduct issues Libertarians: conservative on economic issues, liberal on personal conduct issues Populists: liberal on economic issues, conservative on personal conduct issues

Policy Preferences of Democratic and Republican Voters