1 Dominoes or Pick-Up Sticks: Philanthropy, Evaluation & Social Change Council on Foundations Family Philanthropy Conference February 14, 2012 John Bare The Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation

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4 4. Segment. Segment. Segment. Adapted from HopeLab segmentation report, “To Move Me, First You’ve Got to Understand Me.”

5 5. Pay attention to the arrows, not the boxes. On what assumptions does the logical connection rest? Risk Analysis: What is most likely to go wrong? What would be the consequences? What is the contingency plan?

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10 Unintended Consequences of Accountability Movement

11 Unintended Consequences of Accountability Movement

12 Fit the evaluation to the system. Simple, Complicated and Complex Problems SIMPLE Following a Recipe COMPLICATED Sending a Rocket to the Moon COMPLEX Raising a Child Adapted from Getting to Maybe, Westley, Zimmerman, Patton (2006, Random House Canada)

13 Fit the evaluation to the system. Simple, Complicated and Complex Problems SIMPLE Following a Recipe COMPLICATED Sending a Rocket to the Moon COMPLEX Raising a Child The recipe is essentialFormulae are critical and necessary Formulae have a limited application Recipes are tested to assure easy replication Sending one rocket increases assurance that the next will be OK Raising one child provides experience but no assurance of success with the next No particular expertise is required. But cooking expertise increases success rate High levels of expertise in a variety of fields are necessary for success Expertise can contribute but is neither necessary nor sufficient to assure success Recipes produce standardized products Rockets are similar in critical ways Every child is unique and must be understood as an individual The best recipes give good results every time There is a high degree of certainty of outcome Uncertainty of outcome remains Notes the quantity and nature of “parts” needed Separate into parts and then reassemble and co-ordinate Can’t separate the parts from the whole; essence exists “in the between” in the relationship between elements. Adapted from Getting to Maybe, Westley, Zimmerman, Patton (2006, Random House Canada)

14 Re-Imagine Impact: Change the flow of power, influence and knowledge

15 “The Apple Pushers” (Mary Mazzio, 2011) Bankers Street Food Coalition College Students Neighborhood Grocers Elected Officials Foundations

16 8. Model social change. Change = Dissatisfaction * Vision * Process or C = D * V * P Adapted from Bob Bontempo, Columbia University Business School