SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN A TIME OF RENOVATION Huy LuongQuang Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

Outline Assessment from 1995 – 2003 in Giao Thuy, a coastal district in the north of Vietnam, Discussion on the limitations and dissatisfactions on the findings, On-going development of a new approach.

Giao Thuy – social vulnerability ? Objectives  to assess social vulnerability and resilience under the effects of economic renovation and the implications for local society coping with the impacts of climate and weather extremes.

Figure 1. Research site - Giao Thuy district, 2000/01

Figure 2. Research site - Giao Thuy district, 2000/01

Giao Thuy district Agriculture Aquaculture

Why Giao Thuy? is selected on the basis of statistical and social representativeness that provides a typical account of the social structure  is a resource-dependent community affected significantly by institutional changes.  annual climate and weather extremes are given special considerations in local policy making.  impacts of institutional changes under economic renovation and climatic related events have altered the social structure and local adaptive capacity. allows a theoretical, analytical and descriptive basis to obtain a high level of insights and thoroughness.

Questions asked!  What are the changes of local society under the effects of economic renovation and consequences from these changes? And how is the local society responding to the consequences?  What are the impacts of climate and weather extremes on social livelihoods? And how are these livelihoods recovering from the impacts?  How is the level of social vulnerability and resilience revealed and varied since the economic renovation?  How effective are the chosen indicators in addressing understanding the processes that influence level of vulnerability?

Indicators tested

Identification of new introduced livelihoods since economic renovation Analyses of inequality & inequalising effects of different social livelihoods Identification of the immediate responses to welfare inequality Assessment of the effects of economic renovation on social structure Estimations of economic value of household income, loss caused by climate extremes, and reinvestment. Analyses of the effects of migration & changed labour and their future trends Identifications of the changes in social vulnerability and resilience Policy implication Identification of climatic extreme events in the region in the last decade ECONOMIC RENOVATIONCLIMATE AND WEATHER EXTREMES Analyses of the correlation between household incomes, the losses caused by climate extremes, reinvestment & labour involved recovery Analyses on recovery from the climate extremes of different social groups.

Institutional changes

Economic growth

Figure 3. Lorenz curves for measurement and decomposition of inequality in Giao Thuy, 2000/01 But who benefits from that growth?

Migration as a newly introduced livelihoods Formal – Governmental Organised Migration and Resettlement programmes  North-North resettlement programme – New Economic Zone,  Post-war Migration and Resettlement ( s)  Population redistribution policies involving both deurbanisation and resettlement in NEZs - North-South migration, Informal  Spontaneous migration (both North-North and North-South),  Population growth, land limitation,  Employment opportunity,  Social networks and structures.

Effects of migration on the social structure Changing gender roles - women more responsible to manage agricultural land. Some loss of skills in agricultural workforce. Weakening family structure because older members of the family are absent. Loss of social capital as members of community are absent. BUT increase remittance income.

Decomposition of per-capita income inequality by different components of income Note: ***Inequality effect (+)Income source contributes more to inequality than share of income (-)Income source contributes less to inequality than share of income

Aquaculture and migration Aquacultural development means the rich become richer and the poor become relatively poorer. The community as the whole does become richer because of aquaculture but the important point is who benefits? The trend toward inequality amplifies the pressure on poorer households caused by population growth / land limitation, the rising cost of living and other factors such as loss of jobs caused by agricultural mechanisation. The response of many households is spontaneous migration, only possible since the start of the economic renovation. Source: Adger et al., 2000

Changes in formal policies towards habitat protection Ramsar designation (local level only)

Changes in access to natural resources

Labour force allocation in relationship with spontaneous migration. Note: Data collected in in Giao Thuy district

Effects of migration and changes in labour force on the level of social vulnerability Remittance income has a complex and often opposing effects on the resilience of the poorer members of the community. Limit the loss of resilience caused by aquaculture development and other trends but it is not enhancing resilience by diversifying livelihoods in the local community - it is being invested in existing agricultural activities. Because of effects on gender roles, skills in the agricultural workforce, etc, it has negative effects on resilience. However, migration livelihoods are less dependent on the environment, there is increased resilience to current environmental stress and long-term global environmental change compared to local livelihoods such as agriculture and fishing. It is important to separate out these different effects rather than simply saying migration or aquaculture is good or bad.

Climate extremes and local response examine the aquacultural, non-aquacultural, migrant and non-migrant communities coped with typhoon strikes, cover the income from different sources at household level, loss caused by the extremes, reinvestment (recovering expenses) and the workforce available and involved to recover from the extreme events. most recent and serious typhoon strikes occurred in the region in 1992, 1996 and 1998.

INCOME breakdown by different categories during Note: income data of the 1992 & 1996 have been converted to 1998 price using inflation rate by IMF (1999)

Climate–related loss during Note: income data of the 1992 & 1996 have been converted to 1998 price using inflation rate by IMF (1999)

How big / significant is the loss?

Implications from testing indicators 1. Changes in institutions have had good effects on both agriculture and aquaculture, the implications showed an increase in the level of social resilience in both the aquaculture and the non-aquaculture groups. 2. Testing financial and inequality indicators showed that the whole community got better off  reduce social vulnerability but pressures on the rest of the population. Non-aquacultural groups still face a loss of social resilience caused by the development of aquaculture. 3. Two different trends, labour reallocation and spontaneous migration, both closely related to each other. Migration, with remittance income, has limited the loss of resilience but it is not improving coping capacity by diversifying livelihoods in the local community as remittance income is simply being invested in traditional activities or saved. Migration caused loss of skills in the rural society and changed the gender role on agricultural works, leading to further loss of social resilience. 4. Coping with the extreme events, typhoon strikes. Aquacultural community remains most sensitive and dependent economic sector but adaptability has enhanced considerably by the improved financial and human capacities. Non- aquaculture group, though less dependent on the environment than aquaculture, but is the most vulnerable to the climate and weather extremes.

Implications from testing indicators

Limitations and dissatisfactions Communication skills  the ability to ask relevant questions  open to the knowledge and competence of the local community and are prepared to admit their own ignorance of the local situation  the researchers and the local community have to be prepared to give up their preconceived ideas  interpretation / translation Power issues  information provided by different members of the local community, depending on their positions in the society can reflect their own view of the subject under discussion Gender issues  Gender differences define how, in a specific social and cultural context, women and men interact and what is considered appropriate for each to do, thus determining their development options and constraints Location and time  Information is gathered from the perspective of the inhabitants of one village while other groups of other locations and their perspectives are excluded, especially if different ethnic groups or even in different countries are concerned.

Superficial data  stop at describing the activities and physical surroundings of a community and often fail to investigate deeper to understand strategic decisions that underlie the observed patterns of activities or to see how these strategies have evolved over time Uncertain quality of data  Principles of crosschecking information by seeking different sources and using different methods to obtain information about the same thing are not always undertaken. Imposition of new concepts  Tools and techniques used in the field maybe absolutely alien to the local community, abuse of these techniques and tools will give wrong, even converse data and information Extractive and empowering application of the approach  Most approaches and techniques tend to extract information, some empower the local community to obtain data and information. Interactive process is neglected. Weaknesses in follow-up  What can we do for the community afterwards? Limitations and dissatisfactions (cont.)

More questions asked! How to establish an effective, interactive and continuous link between the local community and the authority, which should include scientific community? What can be used to give the local community a means to employ their knowledge to assist the authority and scientific community in developing an adaptation strategy which works?

Thank you for your attention! Huy LuongQuang Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK