Population and Migration Where is Global Labor going to be in the 21 st century Illegal Migrants entering Greece The Past 1Demographics and Migration

Objectives 2Demographics and Migration Review major points on Malthus Where is the World’s Population today and Why? Where will the World’s labor be concentrated in the 21 st Century and Why. Migration model and impacts

Malthus Hypothesis: In a nutshell food increases arithmetically but population increases geometrically Result: Eventually food supply drops below demand 3Demographics and Migration

Malthus What will happen/can be done? –Positive checks – later marriage, contraception –Negative checks -- Starvation East India Company College Malthus' position as professor at the British East India Company training college gave his theories considerable influence over Britain's administration of India … The most significant result was that the official response to India's periodic famines, The famines were regarded as necessary to keep the "excess" population in check. In some cases even private efforts to transport food into famine-stricken areas were forbidden. famines 4 Demographics and Migration

Malthus’s Errors 1.Industrial Revolution resulted in growth of food output exceeding population growth 2.Mid-latitude grass lands offer great expanses of new fertile agriculture land 3.Births not controlled by genes, controlled by social factors –Industrial Revolution results in Demographic Transition – Population growth declines 5Demographics and Migration

Neo-Malthusians In the long run Malthus will be correct It is not just too many bodies (supply) It is also consumption (demand) – resources will be exhausted Club of Rome – Limits to Growth – doomsday model predicting collapse of global environment within decades 6Demographics and Migration Dr Blackmore declared: "For the planet's sake, I hope we have bird flu or some other thing that will reduce the population, because otherwise we're doomed.“ Nightwaves, BBC Radio 3, Nov. 5, 2008.

Neo-Malthusians Will the world collapse? 1.Doomsdayer’s continue to predict immanent collapse Lester Brown among most prominent The Washington Post called Lester Brown "one of the world's most influential thinkers." The Telegraph of Calcutta refers to him as "the guru of the environmental movement." In 1986, the Library of Congress requested his personal papers noting that his writings "have already strongly affected thinking about problems of world population and resources." 7Demographics and Migration

Where are we headed? Demographics and Migration8

Where has World Population been Centered (Big 4 plus 1) Five major world concentration Asia –1.East Asia –2. South Asia –Southeast Asia Europe –3. Western Europe North America –4. East Coast US and Canada 9Demographics and Migration

World Population Centers - - Today 10Demographics and Migration

11Demographics and Migration

Class Exercise What are the causes of today’s 4 major population centers in the world Where might the World’s Migration Streams (origins & destinations) be centered in the 2025? Why? What will the impacts be to labor markets, environment, consumption…? 12Demographics and Migration

Why such centers? Environmental Factors –Climate –Topography –Quality of Land Resources –Water Human Factors –Industrial Development Demographic Transition 13Demographics and Migration

World Land Use Patterns How does this affect population concentrations??? 14 Note that Manufacturing is concentrated in 4 of the 5 centers

Demographics and Migration15

Population Density --Global Pattern vs. Dryland Pattern 16Demographics and Migration Of the 5 major concentrations only parts of two of them occur in part in semi-arid regions

Note Location of 2002 Famines in Africa and Crude Death Rates Crude Death Rate (deaths/1,000 population) 17Demographics and Migration

US Population Density 18Demographics and Migration What is the cause of low density here?

19Demographics and Migration Note growth and decline in arid west

Changes in World Population Distribution 20Demographics and Migration

Where are future migrants coming from??? Demographics and Migration21

Demographics and Migration22 How this effects the environment, the world, and us Note the 4 Major impacts on the First World

Migration Demographics and Migration23

Demographics and Migration24 A geographer by trade, most of Ravenstein’s published works on migration came after his retirement in He spent his career in the Topographical and Statistical Department of the War Office of England after moving there from Germany in While in their employ he produced numerous publications and maps primarily dealing with Africa. His migration research, especially his two papers on the “laws of migration” were very influential on later work dealing with the structure and process of migration. Although his work focused on current migrations and he was not an archaeologist; Ravenstein had a major impact on migration studies across many disciplines. E.G. (Ernest George) Ravenstein ( )

Demographics and Migration Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration 25 1) DISTANCE DECAY: Most migrants only proceed a short distance, and toward centers of absorption. 2) BACK FILLING: As migrants move toward absorption centers, they leave "gaps" that are filled up by migrants from more remote districts, creating migration flows that reach to "the most remote corner of the kingdom." 3) ABSORPTION: The process of dispersion is inverse to that of absorption. 4) COUNTER CURRENT: Each main current of migration produces a compensating counter-current. 5) URBAN CENTER PULL: Migrants proceeding long distances generally go by preference to one of the great centers of commerce or industry. 6) RURAL PUSH The natives of towns are less migratory than those of the rural parts of the country. 7) GENDER SELECTIVE: Females are more migratory than males.

26Demographics and Migration Prehistoric Migration of humans

Migration in Action Demographics and Migration27

28Demographics and Migration Migration: Impacts on Wages

Demographics and Migration29 Take time to dissect Fig. 3.34

Fig 3.34 Shows 1.Supply of Labor increases in MDC decreases in LDC due to migration 2. “Average” Wages in MDC drop, Wages in LDC increase due to migration 3.For the work force modeled average Standard of Living increases in LDC decreases in MDC (???) Depends also on how goods and services are impacted by lower labor cost – expect trade gains Demographics and Migration30

Fig 3.34 Shows Demographics and Migration31 4.However, historical experience has shown trade and productivity gains thus Quality of Life could increases in both places 5.However, what if surplus labor in LDC over- whelms the market (internal migrants) wages don’t rise, but under/un- employment drops still a great benefit in LDC 6.Use rural to urban migration in China as a demonstration of pent-up labor demand

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The West 33Demographics and Migration

Pro Immigration Canada 34Demographics and Migration

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How about Guest Workers? Demographics and Migration36

UK reaction to Poles Demographics and Migration37