National or local matter? Demographic challenges in Hungary Dr. Péter Szaló Deputy State Secretary Ministry of Internal Affairs Effects of demographic change on urban structures EUKN Annual Conference Budapest, September 2010.

Structure of the presentation 1.Demographic trends in Hungary 2.Prognosis and policy recommendations 3.Priorities and programs of the Hungarian EU Presidency - concerning urban demography

Demographic trends in Hungary After the WW2 ‘Ratkó-era’ - prohibition of abortion - natural population increase After the WW2 ‘Ratkó-era’ - prohibition of abortion - natural population increase In the 1960 HU among the lowest fertility rates In the 1960 HU among the lowest fertility rates In the 1970s a supportive social policy pack and the productivity of the Ratkó-children generated natural increase In the 1970s a supportive social policy pack and the productivity of the Ratkó-children generated natural increase From the 1980s population decline From the 1980s population decline After 1990 immigration diminshed natural population decrease, but still a negative balance After 1990 immigration diminshed natural population decrease, but still a negative balance After 1990 metropolises effected by urban sprawl and suburbanisation, but the funcional urban areas are still stagnating or increasing After 1990 metropolises effected by urban sprawl and suburbanisation, but the funcional urban areas are still stagnating or increasing

Population change in Hungary between Source:

Recent trends

Population change 2007/2001

Population decline of the Hungarian cities between Rank by absolut population decline Rank by relative population decline % 1Budapest Dunaújváros83,3 2Miskolc-25346Budapest84,4 3Pécs-13375Kazincbarcika84,6 4Dunaújváros-9845Salgótarján85,7 5Székesfehérvár-7203Nagyatád85,8 6Debrecen-7151Kunszentmárton85,9 7Salgótarján-6852Sátoraljaújhely86,5 8Szombathely-6317Miskolc87,1 9Kazincbarcika-5507Ózd87,5 10Eger-5435Orosháza87,9 11Ózd-5184Túrkeve88,6 12Kaposvár-4324Ajka88,7 13Orosháza-4170Mezőtúr88,8 14Tatabánya-3889Gyomaendrőd89,0 15Hódmezővásárhely-3884Csongrád89,4

Natural increase/decrease

Natural increase /decrease , by settlement size

Average age of the mother, when she gives birth for the first time and Proportion of families with 3 or more children, by settlement size, 2001.

Balance of internal migration

Main challenges of Hungarian cities Aging and depopulation, natural decrease Aging and depopulation, natural decrease Suburbanisation, urban sprawl Suburbanisation, urban sprawl Increasing segregation – Roma population Increasing segregation – Roma population Provision of public and social services adaptively to the demographic change Provision of public and social services adaptively to the demographic change

What can be expected?

Population change 2021/2007, forecast

Change of the proportion of 60< , forecast

Challenges and recommendations Strengthening integrative and inclusive policies to ‘replace’ population decline by internal immigration Strengthening integrative and inclusive policies to ‘replace’ population decline by internal immigration Family- and child-friendly social policies to encourage natural population increase Family- and child-friendly social policies to encourage natural population increase Rise of economic productivity, a more flexible employment of women Rise of economic productivity, a more flexible employment of women Integrative spatial development policies and finance system to avoid territorial polarisation, and social marginalisation of peripheral, disadvantaged status areas Integrative spatial development policies and finance system to avoid territorial polarisation, and social marginalisation of peripheral, disadvantaged status areas

Priorities and programs of the Hungarian EU Presidency

Priorities of the HU PRES 1.Urban dimension of combating climate change 2.Urban aspects of demographic change/migration

1. Urban dimension of combating climate change The Hungarian Presidency will issue a practical handbook („Climate-friendly cities and towns”) issue a practical handbook („Climate-friendly cities and towns”) present in UDG meeting in February and in DG meeting in April present in UDG meeting in February and in DG meeting in April

2. Urban aspects of demographic change/migration The Hungarian Presidency will prepare a background report on different policy reactions on demographic changes by urban and regional governments prepare a background report on different policy reactions on demographic changes by urban and regional governments organize a one-day high-level seminar to discuss the possibilities and constraints of urban policies related to the expected demographic shock organize a one-day high-level seminar to discuss the possibilities and constraints of urban policies related to the expected demographic shock

About the background report Analysis of the three major trends in Europe: Analysis of the three major trends in Europe:  Decrease of fertility rates  Ageing of the population  Increase of migration Migration (especially migrants from third countries) can only alleviate population loss, not fully compensate it Migration (especially migrants from third countries) can only alleviate population loss, not fully compensate it The present welfare systems in most countries will face unprecedented fiscal shock and are unsustainable The present welfare systems in most countries will face unprecedented fiscal shock and are unsustainable The economic gap between the western and eastern parts of Europe will be deepened by the demographic gap The economic gap between the western and eastern parts of Europe will be deepened by the demographic gap

About the high-level seminar main target: to show differences and variations of urban policies related to the demographic and economic position of the cities (or/and regions) main target: to show differences and variations of urban policies related to the demographic and economic position of the cities (or/and regions) potentially small workshop in November 2010 (with the participation of researchers dealing with regional/urban responses to the demographic challenges) potentially small workshop in November 2010 (with the participation of researchers dealing with regional/urban responses to the demographic challenges) other ideas: an ‘Advisory Board’ could be set up other ideas: an ‘Advisory Board’ could be set up –meeting could be in early 2011, to discuss the background report and the planned program, exact topics, speakers etc. of the seminar

Planned timetable Background study Meetings Concept paper (June ) Collection of case studies (June 18 - October ) Typology of urban policies (November ) Workshop for researchers (middle of November 2010) Finalisation of background study (December ) Meeting of ‘Advisory Board’ (January or February 2011) One-day High Level Seminar (April 2011)

Please provide us information about -problem-analysis -concrete projects -policies carried out by local or regional governments/municipalities related to the aspects of demographic change. Contact person at Metropolitan Research Institute: Mr. Iván Tosics /115) - before the middle of October

Thank you for your attention!