A Personal View of the Future of Space Weather Dr. Keith T. Strong SP Systems at NASA GSFC Assessment Example: Long-term Forecasting Cost Effective & Innovative Approaches Example: MagCon What Must be Done

Forecast Assessment: Adequate (-) Space Weather Type of Warning Example Methodology Reliability Solar Cycle Next cycle Empirical or numerical models Very Poor Current Cycle Trend analysis against average Poor <1 year Trend analysis on activity Adequate Solar Flares >1 day before event Statistical probability Very Poor <1 day before event Magnetic complexity Poor All clear for up to 24h Solar activity levels Very Good CMEs >1 day before event Statistical probability Very Poor <1 day before event Filament / AR dynamics Very Poor Arrival time at Earth Dynamics after launch Good All clear for up to 24h Solar Activity levels Good Solar Wind High or low speed Models based on magnetic and coronal data Good Geomagnetic Storms >3 days before event Relies on flare, CME and solar wind data Very Poor <3 days before event Observed CME launch Adequate <1 hour Upstream monitors Good Now cast: effects Magnetospheric models Very Good All clear for up to 3 d Solar Activity levels Very Good Atmospheric Heating Advanced warning Flare intensity and likelihood Very Poor Now cast Atmospheric models and drag data Adequate Ionospheric Disturbances Advanced Warning Flare intensity and likelihood Poor Nowcast Solar activity levels Good All clear for up to 24h Solar activity levels Good

Cycle 23 is the Best Observed in History……. SolarHeliosphereGeospace Yohkoh Voyager 1 & 2 POES/DMSP GOESUlyssesGOES SOHOWindUARS TRACESOHOGEOTAIL SORCEACEPOLAR RHESSIFAST STEREOCluster HINODEIMAGE TIMED STS-5 AIM + ground-based assets THEMIS But Have We Been Observing the Right Things in the Right Way?

…… But For How Much of the Cycle? SolarHeliosphereGeospace Yohkoh Voyager 1 & 2 POES/DMSP GOESUlyssesGOES SOHOWindUARS TRACESOHOGEOTAIL SORCEACEPOLAR RHESSIFAST STEREOCluster HINODEIMAGE TIMED STS-5 AIM THEMIS Must Resort to Statistical Studies

…. But Cycle 24 May Be More Sparsely Observed SolarHeliosphereGeospace Yohkoh Voyager 1 & 2 POES/DMSP GOESUlyssesGOES SOHOWindUARS TRACESOHOGEOTAIL SORCEACEPOLAR RHESSIIBEXFAST STEREO Solar Probe Cluster HINODE Solar Orbiter IMAGE SDOSentinelsTIMED TRIANA????STS-5 AIM THEMIS CINDI MMS NPOESS RBSP Mag Con KEY: No Longer Functional Working but Past Sell-by Date Fully Operational To be Launched Soon Planned

Long-Term Forecasting Seems to be our Biggest Problem Area To address any forecast requirements longer than 3 days, we must go back to the Sun:To address any forecast requirements longer than 3 days, we must go back to the Sun: –Solar Cycle Prediction Impacts mission planning (e.g., S/C design, replacement rates, refurbishment timing, fuel allocation, parts selection) Exploration of the Moon/Mars or any human deep space mission –Advanced Warning of Energetic Flares and CMEs Impacts early warning of geomagnetic storms EVA planning –Predicting the Characteristics of Filaments and Coronal Holes Spacecraft charging CME s

Long-term Forecast Requirements Solar Cycle (Large-scale B) Flares & CMEs (Strong B) Coronal Holes & Filaments (Weak B) Helioseismology√?? Magnetic Field (LOS) √√√ Magnetic Field (Vector) Х√? Coronal Imaging (X- ray/EUV) √√√ CoronagraphX√Х Modeling√√√ √ - Needed ? – TBD X – Not Needed Cost Benefit Analysis Needed?

Which is the Most Cost Effective Problem to Tackle? Solar Cycle (Large-scale B) Flares & CMEs (Strong B) Coronal Holes & Filaments (Weak B) Helioseismology√?? Magnetic Field (LOS) √√ √ (I.R.) Magnetic Field (Vector) Х√ ? (I.R.) Coronal Imaging (X- ray/EUV) √√√ CoronagraphХ√Х Modeling√√√ Mature Technology / Understanding Technology Development / Understanding Needed √ - Needed ? – TBD X – Not Needed

So It Comes Down to Minimizing Costs Space Science is no longer cheapSpace Science is no longer cheap –Science is more complex and involved ….. –Technology and engineering requires specialist teams …….. –But We have put in place huge barriers to doing things cost effectively Unnecessary Reviews Intrusive oversight Financial hurdles (reserves management) Additional layers of management –E.g., TRACE would be impossible to do today –PI rules would mean that many of today’s PIs would not have become PIs!

Have We Become Too Afraid of Innovation? Prevailing View: Innovation = RISKPrevailing View: Innovation = RISK Here is where commercial businesses can make a contributionHere is where commercial businesses can make a contribution –Particularly the small ones (once the basic technology is developed) –They are not afraid to look at completely different concepts –They are not afraid to look at completely different concepts Space tourism Low-cost Commercial launches

An Example: Two Ways of Looking At MagCon Current ConceptCurrent Concept –Huge, expensive launcher –Multiple S/C and instrument builds Set up and then decommission a costly production line –Your Program schedule will be slave to the slowest, most troublesome one. –Constellation degrades or eventually becomes obsolete –Managing and safely operating an “instant” constellation What if you got the science requirements wrong? –No recovery

Who Said There was no Such Thing as a Free Launch? Use the spare launch capacity (ballast) on current launches - Saves >$100MUse the spare launch capacity (ballast) on current launches - Saves >$100M Spreads out production costs, eliminating the need for mass production, calibration, etcSpreads out production costs, eliminating the need for mass production, calibration, etc Populates a larger volume of spacePopulates a larger volume of space Allows for ongoing innovation, new instrumentationAllows for ongoing innovation, new instrumentation Constellation continuously enhanced and can be perpetuatedConstellation continuously enhanced and can be perpetuated Constellation size can be scaled on a cost effective basisConstellation size can be scaled on a cost effective basis Operations grow more complex slowlyOperations grow more complex slowly What if you got the science requirements wrong? –Adjust as you build the constellation Secondary Payload Ring Populated by 6 microsats replaces some of the ballast

What We Should Do A rigorous and on-going assessment of:A rigorous and on-going assessment of: –Our ability to predict SWx phenomena A forecasting challenge? –The current and future user needs (value) –Technology readiness to meet those requirements SWx Instrument incubator program Missions funding should be based on utility not on some arbitrary clockMissions funding should be based on utility not on some arbitrary clock Look at innovative (cost effective) solutionsLook at innovative (cost effective) solutions –Small businesses can be more agile More flexible designs such that we can improve data as the new technologies emergeMore flexible designs such that we can improve data as the new technologies emerge

THANKS!