GOVST meeting – 8-10 june 2009, Toulouse Mercator-Ocean : French contribution to GODAE OceanView annual report Nicolas Ferry, with the help from E. Dombrowsky, Y. Drillet, L. parent, M. Drevillon, G. Garric, CE Testut, B. Tranchant, JM Lellouche, E. Rémy, E. Greiner, S

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Outline - System & services overview - Progresses since GODAE final symposium - In the near future…

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june System & services overview - Progresses since GODAE final symposium - In the near future

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Introduction (1/2) Mercator Océan : Legal entity owned by CNES, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, Météo-France and SHOM Mercator Océan is an operational, global, real-time ocean forecast service provider Its activity follows 3 main axes: Exploit and maintain real-time numerical ocean forecast systems Ensure service level as required by its users, and promotes the development of downstream services at the Global scale Prepare service evolutions to maintain service quality close to the state of the art

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 System suite developed and operated North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving (routine) Global eddy permitting (routine) and low resolution (routine)  Global eddy resolving (demo in April 2008) Methodology defined, and tools implemented for assessment and validation GoDAE Metrics Links with data centers developed CORIOLIS for the In Situ observing system SSALTO/DUACS for the altimetry Météo-France for the SST (to evolve within MyOcean) and Forcing Connection with other operational oceanography centers established Within EU-GMES : MyOcean project started 1st April 2009 UKMO, NERSC, INGV, DMI, DFO… Bilateral collaborations MOON (Med sea), GOAPP (DFO/EC Canada), … International GoDAE, EuroGOOS, … Introduction (2/2)

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 The model configurations 1 code : NEMO (OPA9+LIM) 1 grid : all the configurations are on the same ORCA (tripolar) grid One single input dataset : initialization and forcing interpolated inline Some of these configurations are shared with the scientific and operational community ORCA025: Drakkar and GLORYS Project, Barnier et al. UKMO, CMCC, ECMWF, DFO, … ORCA025 1 point sur 12 ORCA12 ATL12 NEATL36

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009  T,  S ΨΨ  U,  V  U geo,  V geo  U bar,  V bar + Model initialisation  Baroclinic  Hbar SAM2 kernel Modal Space (Reduced Space) Control Space SEEK Analysis  T(k)  S(k) Barotropic  U(k)  V(k) The assimilation scheme: SAM2 (Kalman Filter type) 3D modes acting on 3D space SAM2v1: SEEK filter using multivariate 3D error modes

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Several model configurations operated for several uses Regional eddy resolving (2002  ) North Atlantic + Mediterranean operational: 5-7 km, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti. T/S and SST From April 2008: 1/12° (6.5 km at 45°N), NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST, daily fcst Target: mesoscale upper ocean, downscaling to smaller regional and coastal regions, … Global eddy permitting (09/2005  ) operational: ¼°, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti only From April 2008: ¼°, NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST Has been operated in demo mode during Mersea TOP2: April  Sept 2007 Target: global ocean climate monitoring, biology, sea ice, reanalysis, … Global low resolution (05/2004  ) Today: 2°, OPA8, SEEK assim of alti, T/S and SST Target: oceanic initial conditions for coupled seasonal prediction, reanalysis Global eddy resolving (to be operational at the end of MyOcean) NEMO/LIM+SEEK 1/12° Has been demonstrated in April 2008 Target: Global Marine Core Service and downscaling to European regions Northeastern Atlantic high resolution (to be operational at the end of MyOcean) NEMO 1/36° +SEEK + Tidal free surface Target: IBIROOS Marine Core Service  Boundary data to coastal systems

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 System performance: SLA Global 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) Nov 07Apr 08Nov 07Apr 08 ~ = + +

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 System performance: T and S RMSDIF Global 1/4° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) Temperature Salinity Temperature Salinity 0.5° 0.1 Psu 0.5° 0.1 Psu

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 T/S Global (1/4°) overall performances 1-year average (2007). Left: Bias, Right: RMSdiff 600m +/- 0.1 Psu +/- 0.5°C 600m 0.5 °C 0.1 Psu Temp Sal Temp Sal BIAS RMSdiff

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Mercator 1/12° April Mercator 1/4 April OSTIA April

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 SERVICES: Delineated eddies and fronts French Navy product based on Mercator Front and eddies with potential acoustic impact detected by Navy forecasters and delivered to Navy headquarters for operations at sea

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 > 0 means degradation in % 0 is the baseline (3 sats) < 0 means improvement in % RMS(Obs-Expi)-RMS(Obs-Baseline) RMS(Obs) Shown here diags from innovation: Obs (not yet assimilated) - Forecast Full domain POMME region Cape Verde region Assim of: In situ T/S + RTG SST + No alt Jason Jason + Envisat Jason + Envisat + GFO (baseline) Jason + Envisat + GFO + T/P Progressive loss ( ) SERVICES: Observing systems impact studies: Impact of altimeter data coverage Benkiran, 2008

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Bulletin Input -Displacement from (1ON: 130E) towards (40N:120E) Ocean bulletin: -significant intensification in the next 48 hr -significant weakening north of 20°N Guess cyclone fate from Ocean near surface heat content Buarque, 2008 D26°C SLA SST SERVICES : Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Example: RAMASSUN (May 2008)

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 SERVICES: Ocean Indicators

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june System overview - Present capacity and services - Progresses since GODAE final symposium - Future plans

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Progresses since GODAE final symposium GLORYS-1V1 : global ocean reanalysis at ¼° produced and available - GLORYS : French initiative supported by GMMC (Mercator- Coriolis) - Involves French oceanography labs (LEGI, LPO, LOS, CNRM,LOCEAN) and Mercator + Coriolis - European level: MyOcean project, - International level: contribution to CLIVAR GSOP - OBJECTIVE : obtain an eddy permitting (1/4°) realistic 4D description of the ocean history:

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 GLORYS-1 GLORYS-2 GLORYS-3 Stream1: “ARGO” Stream2: “Altimetry” Stream3: ERA-40 T/S prof.: 800< SST: 1°x1° or coarser SLA: NO DATA T/S prof.: ~1000 SST:1°x1° SLA: 12000~50000 T/S prof.: 2000~4500 SST: 0,5°x0,5°  0,1°x0,1° SLA: ~75000 Obs. / 7 days Time schedule: 2008: Stream1 2009: Stream Stream3 GLORYS: different Streams

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Overview of GLORYS reanalysis system Reanalysis system :  Based on the current global operational forecasting system + customization - Use NEMO: ocean model with ORCA025 grid + LIM2_EVP sea-ice model - Data assimilation engine : Based on SEEK filter (Pham et al., 1998) - Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) approach  continuous time solution Assimilated Observations: - Altimetry : along track SLA data SSALTO/DUACS (T/P, Envisat, GFO, Jason1) - SST: NCEP RTG 0.5° product - In situ T, S: CORA-02 Q.C. data base provided by CORIOLIS

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Rms misfit ~ 8cm Results: Nov April 2008 comparison with assimilated data Rms misfit Mean misfit TEMPERATURE Obs-Fcst SLA Obs-Fcst 0 1°C

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Example of SST patterns in the Gulf Stream region for 9th April 2008: OSTIA SST: used in verification mode ODYSSEA SST 0.05° 0.1° GLORYS SST 0.25° RTG NCEP SST: assimilated data 0.5° Reynolds ¼° AVHRR-AMSR OIv2

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 SLA Std. Dev. Aviso Altimetry GLORYS – 2007

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 GLORYS : Global Ocean Heat Budget Global mean equivalent Heat Flux W/m HEAT CHANGE INDUCED BY DATA ASSIMILATION TOTAL OCEAN HEAT CHANGE SURFACE HEAT FLUX

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 SSH budget: baroclinic and barotropic contributions baroclinic barotropic SSH

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Water Mass budget: Global Mean SSH – dynamic height Estimation based on GRACE data Water Mass Budget seasonal signal: ~15 mm amplitude maximum in autumn GRACE data GLORYS1V1 J. Famiglietti et al., 2008

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Sea Ice Sea ice extent monthly anomalies Arctic Correlation: 0.8 GLORYS with LIM2_EVP CERSAT DATA

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june System & services overview - Present capacity and services - Progresses since GODAE final symposium - In the near Future

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 In the near future (1/2) o MyOcean project has started (April April 2012)  MyOcean will strongly drive Mercator activity next 3 years main challenge for Mercator (& other MyOcean oceanography centers) : improve the quality of operational systems, i.e: - Keep as close as possible to the state-of-the-art in an operational context - Ensure continuity of service with strongly evolving systems - Meet users expectations in terms of product quality o New operational systems are planned : - Global eddy resolving (1/12°) : demo mode in december High resolution (1/36°) in the Iberian Biscay Irish region (IBIROOS)  2011 o Real Time: - Weekly assimilation and medium range forecast O(2 weeks) - Daily forecast cycle O(1 week) GLO1/4°+NATL1/12°

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 In the near future (2/2) o Reanalysis activity: - GLORYS1V2 : Version 2 of Stream 1 ( )  improved data assimilation engine (covariances, bias correction…)  produced end GLORYS: 15-year reanalysis ( ) within MyOcean  2010 o R&D: - data assimilation of Ice drift / concentration - HR SST data assimilation - Biogeochemical global analyses

Nereus Project, réunion Océano, Toulouse, 30/09/2008 GOVST meeting, 8-10 june 2009 Thank you