2018 CO 2 Emission Projections for the SESARM States Prepared by: Byeong-Uk Kim, Jim Boylan, and Keith Bentley GA EPD – Air Protection Branch October 22, 2013

Background The President’s climate action plan in June 2013 reiterated his 2009 goal of a 17% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020 from a 2005 baseline. EGU emissions trending downward due to: – Lower natural gas prices – Closure of older inefficient units – Compliance with CAIR and MATS – Compliance with state rules – Increases in renewable energy and nuclear EPA seeking state input on how 111(d) requirements should be implemented Need reference point as starting point for discussions 2

Approach Extracted 2018 heat input values by fuel type (coal, oil, gas) from ERTAC EGU projection tool. – 2011 CAMD heat input data was used as the starting point for the projections – Applied ERTAC growth factors by fuel type from the AEO 2013 Report – Applied emission controls submitted by the states Applied CO2 emission factors (TPY CO2/MMBTU) to projected 2018 heat inputs for each fuel type. – State specific CO2 emission factors (EFs) derived from 2005 CAMD data for coal, oil, and gas – National CO2 emission factors for coal, oil, and gas Compared 2005 and 2011 CO2 emissions with 2018 projected CO2 emissions. 3

Methodology Heat Input (MMBTU) CAMD HI Data ERTAC EGU Projection Tool CO2 Emissions: Method 1 (TPY) CAMD CO2 Data State derived CO2 EFs from 2005 CAMD CO2 Emissions: Method 2 (TPY) CAMD CO2 Data National CO2 EFs -- Coal (0.103) -- Gas (0.058) -- Oil (0.087) CO2 Emissions: Method 3 (TPY) National CO2 EFs -- Coal (0.103) -- Gas (0.058) -- Oil (0.087) National CO2 EFs -- Coal (0.103) -- Gas (0.058) -- Oil (0.087) National CO2 EFs -- Coal (0.103) -- Gas (0.058) -- Oil (0.087) 4

State Derived CO2 Emission Factors *Due to 2005 and 2011 CAMD data issues with WV Oil, SEMAP Oil CO2 Emission Factor was based on data from nine states. 5

Heat Input Trends 6

Alabama Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal828,291,079616,122,474534,955,657 Gas108,847,282347,976,893451,625,412 Oil--- Total937,138,361964,099,366986,581,069 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal84,982,81463,752,491/-25.0%54,886,547/-35.4% Gas6,489,15020,662,970/218.4%26,924,560/314.9% Oil--- Total91,471,96584,415,460/-7.7%81,811,107/-10.6% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal84,982,81463,752,491/-25.0%55,100,433/-35.2% Gas6,489,15020,662,970/218.4%26,194,274/303.7% Oil--- Total91,471,96584,415,460/-7.7%81,294,707/-11.1% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal85,313,98163,460,615/-25.6%55,100,433/-35.4% Gas6,313,14220,182,660/219.7%26,194,274/314.9% Oil--- Total91,627,12383,643,275/-8.7%81,294,707/-11.3% 7

Florida Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal697,012,879584,530,821565,464,091 Gas721,732,2131,005,249,552821,830,715 Oil218,691,91572,513,60010,482,780 Total1,637,437,0061,662,293,9731,397,777,587 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal71,627,48259,943,898/-16.3%58,109,069/-18.9% Gas46,833,32460,427,651/29.0%53,328,733/13.9% Oil18,036,3224,664,553/-74.1%864,553/-95.2% Total136,497,129125,036,102/-8.4%112,302,355/-17.7% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal71,627,48259,943,898/-16.3%58,242,801/-18.7% Gas46,833,32460,427,651/29.0%47,666,181/1.8% Oil18,036,3224,664,553/-74.1%912,002/-94.9% Total136,497,129125,036,102/-8.4%106,820,985/-21.7% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal71,792,32760,206,675/-16.1%58,242,801/-18.9% Gas41,860,46858,304,474/39.3%47,666,181/13.9% Oil19,026,1976,308,683/-66.8%912,002/-95.2% Total132,678,991124,819,832/-5.9%106,820,985/-19.5% 8

Georgia Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal871,637,658643,524,001563,321,215 Gas76,409,203191,888,663409,682,226 Oil1,393,349200,59240,910 Total949,440,210835,613,256973,044,351 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal89,426,90866,131,631/-26.0%57,794,743/-35.4% Gas4,548,09111,440,769/151.6%24,385,440/436.2% Oil126,0187,024/-94.4%3,700/-97.1% Total94,101,01777,579,424/-17.6%82,183,883/-12.7% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal89,426,90866,131,631/-26.0%58,022,085/-35.1% Gas4,548,09111,440,769/151.6%23,761,569/422.5% Oil126,0187,024/-94.4%3,559/-97.2% Total94,101,01777,579,424/-17.6%81,787,213/-13.1% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal89,778,67966,282,972/-26.2%58,022,085/-35.4% Gas4,431,73411,129,542/151.1%23,761,569/436.2% Oil121,22117,452/-85.6%3,559/-97.1% Total94,331,63477,429,966/-17.9%81,787,213/-13.3% 9

Kentucky Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal970,338,844972,285,834773,081,021 Gas18,621,08715,585,28742,049,262 Oil132,207183,7876,963,377 Total989,092,139988,054,907822,093,660 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal99,145,763100,038,631/0.9%78,990,662/-20.3% Gas1,023,071866,382/-15.3%2,310,252/125.8% Oil5,53511,628/110.1%291,534/5167.0% Total100,174,369100,916,640/0.7%81,592,448/-18.5% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal99,145,763100,038,631/0.9%79,627,345/-19.7% Gas1,023,071866,382/-15.3%2,438,857/138.4% Oil5,53511,628/110.1%605,814/ % Total100,174,369100,916,640/0.7%82,672,016/-17.5% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal99,944,901100,145,441/0.2%79,627,345/-20.3% Gas1,080,023903,947/-16.3%2,438,857/125.8% Oil11,50215,989/39.0%605,814/5167.0% Total101,036,426101,065,377/0.0%82,672,016/-18.2% 10

Mississippi Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal187,195,918109,524,648107,861,249 Gas122,337,079220,736,118294,690,677 Oil11,497,22116,978,8894,612,520 Total321,030,217347,239,655407,164,446 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal19,430,41811,371,537/-41.5%11,195,699/-42.4% Gas7,424,27413,122,388/76.7%17,883,902/140.9% Oil857,3631,004,947/17.2%343,962/-59.9% Total27,712,05525,498,873/-8.0%29,423,563/6.2% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal19,430,41811,371,537/-41.5%11,109,709/-42.8% Gas7,424,27413,122,388/76.7%17,092,059/130.2% Oil857,3631,004,947/17.2%401,289/-53.2% Total27,712,05525,498,873/-8.0%28,603,057/3.2% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal19,281,18011,281,039/-41.5%11,109,709/-42.4% Gas7,095,55112,802,695/80.4%17,092,059/140.9% Oil1,000,2581,477,163/47.7%401,289/-59.9% Total27,376,98825,560,897/-6.6%28,603,057/4.5% 11

North Carolina Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal745,002,851587,466,422522,077,996 Gas28,747,59087,388,365134,776,426 Oil1,322,0112,187,160309,991 Total775,072,452677,041,947657,164,413 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal73,841,68260,151,522/-18.5%51,746,268/-29.9% Gas1,647,8665,200,008/215.6%7,725,641/368.8% Oil91,632138,940/51.6%21,486/-76.6% Total75,581,18065,490,469/-13.4%59,493,395/-21.3% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal73,841,68260,151,522/-18.5%53,774,034/-27.2% Gas1,647,8665,200,008/215.6%7,817,033/374.4% Oil91,632138,940/51.6%26,969/-70.6% Total75,581,18065,490,469/-13.4%61,618,036/-18.5% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal76,735,29460,509,041/-21.1%53,774,034/-29.9% Gas1,667,3605,068,525/204.0%7,817,033/368.8% Oil115,015190,283/65.4%26,969/-76.6% Total78,517,66965,767,850/-16.2%61,618,036/-21.5% 12

South Carolina Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal411,102,505350,400,650279,471,551 Gas51,019,92398,961,44164,510,228 Oil947,965147,702136,971 Total463,070,392449,509,793344,118,750 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal41,855,58535,635,068/-14.9%28,453,841/-32.0% Gas2,821,6055,781,263/104.9%3,567,673/26.4% Oil62,4448,504/-86.4%9,023/-85.6% Total44,739,63441,424,836/-7.4%32,030,536/-28.4% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal41,855,58535,635,068/-14.9%28,785,570/-31.2% Gas2,821,6055,781,263/104.9%3,741,593/32.6% Oil62,4448,504/-86.4%11,916/-80.9% Total44,739,63441,424,836/-7.4%32,539,079/-27.3% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal42,343,55836,091,267/-14.8%28,785,570/-32.0% Gas2,959,1565,739,764/94.0%3,741,593/26.4% Oil82,47312,850/-84.4%11,916/-85.6% Total45,385,18641,843,881/-7.8%32,539,079/-28.3% 13

Tennessee Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal586,334,326415,014,667361,310,742 Gas640,58618,897,90420,369,084 Oil6,064,8215,822,73110,645,069 Total593,039,733439,735,301392,324,895 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal60,157,91042,986,517/-28.5%37,070,487/-38.4% Gas9,9701,081,963/ %1,166,193*/ % Oil365,781385,024/5.3%642,025/75.5% Total60,533,66144,453,503/-26.6%38,878,704/-35.8% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal60,157,91042,986,517/-28.5%37,215,006/-38.1% Gas9,9701,081,963/ %1,181,407/ % Oil365,781385,024/5.3%926,121/153.2% Total60,533,66144,453,503/-26.6%39,322,534/-35.0% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal60,392,43642,746,511/-29.2%37,215,006/-38.4% Gas37,1541,096,078/2850.1%1,181,407/3079.8% Oil527,639506,578/-4.0%926,121/75.5% Total60,957,22944,349,167/-27.2%39,322,534/-35.5% *Due to limited data samples for TN Gas in the 2005 CAMD data, 2011 CAMD data was used to derive the TN CO2 Emission Factor for Gas. 14

Virginia Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal355,119,872219,131,170181,915,470 Gas70,540,896148,162,843244,061,356 Oil37,761,2583,364,8743,518,281 Total463,422,025370,658,887429,495,107 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal32,601,56621,980,330/-32.6%16,700,640/-48.8% Gas2,762,2676,886,409/149.3%9,557,046/246.0% Oil3,060,018270,278/-91.2%285,107/-90.7% Total38,423,85029,137,018/-24.2%26,542,793/-30.9% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal32,601,56621,980,330/-32.6%18,737,293/-42.5% Gas2,762,2676,886,409/149.3%14,155,559/412.5% Oil3,060,018270,278/-91.2%306,090/-90.0% Total38,423,85029,137,018/-24.2%33,198,942/-13.6% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal36,577,34722,570,510/-38.3%18,737,293/-48.8% Gas4,091,3728,593,445/110.0%14,155,559/246.0% Oil3,285,229292,744/-91.1%306,090/-90.7% Total43,953,94831,456,699/-28.4%33,198,942/-24.5% 15

West Virginia Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal868,127,778754,784,219759,200,805 Gas2,112,9472,405,5483,506,643 Oil89,818212,539- Total870,330,544757,402,307762,707,448 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal88,362,20677,730,188/-12.0%77,275,096/-12.5% Gas126,708145,031/14.5%210,285/66.0% Oil7,308*13,605*/86.2%- Total88,496,22277,888,825/-12.0%77,485,381/-12.4% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal88,362,20677,730,188/-12.0%78,197,683/-11.5% Gas126,708145,031/14.5%203,385/60.5% Oil7,814**18,491**/136.6%- Total88,496,72877,893,711/-12.0%78,401,068/-11.4% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal89,417,16177,742,775/-13.1%78,197,683/-12.5% Gas122,551139,522/13.8%203,385/66.0% Oil7,814**18,491**/136.6%- Total89,547,52677,900,787/-13.0%78,401,068/-12.4% *2005 and 2011 CAMD data for WV included heat input data for Oil, but no CO2 emissions. Therefore, 2005 and 2011 CO2 emissions for WV were back-calculated with the SEMAP CO2 Emission Factor. **2005 and 2011 CO2 emissions for WV were back-calculated with the National CO2 Emission Factor. 16

SEMAP Heat Input (MMBtu) FuelType Coal6,520,163,7085,252,784,9054,648,659,797 Gas1,201,008,8052,137,252,6132,487,102,031 Oil277,810,747101,611,87336,709,898 Total7,998,983,2607,491,649,3927,172,471,726 CO2 Emissions - Method 1 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal661,432,333539,721,812/-18.4%472,223,051/-28.6% Gas73,686,328125,614,835/70.5%147,059,723/99.6% Oil22,605,1146,504,503/-71.2%2,461,390/-89.1% Total757,723,774671,841,150/-11.3%621,744,165/-17.9% CO2 Emissions - Method 2 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal661,432,333539,721,812/-18.4%478,811,959/-27.6% Gas73,686,328125,614,835/70.5%144,251,918/95.8% Oil22,612,9286,509,389/-71.2%3,193,761/-85.9% Total757,731,588671,846,036/-11.3%626,257,638/-17.4% CO2 Emissions - Method 3 FuelType2005 (TPY) 2011 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) 2018 (TPY)/ Change from 2005 (%) Coal671,576,862541,036,845/-19.4%478,811,959/-28.7% Gas69,658,511123,960,652/78.0%144,251,918/107.1% Oil24,177,3498,840,233/-63.4%3,193,761/-86.8% Total765,412,722673,837,730/-12.0%626,257,638/-18.2% 17

Summary: Method 1 State CO2 Emissions (TPY)Change from 2005 (%) AL91,471,96584,415,46081,811, %-10.6% FL136,497,129125,036,102112,302, %-17.7% GA94,101,01777,579,42482,183, %-12.7% KY100,174,369100,916,64081,592,4480.7%-18.5% MS27,712,05525,498,87329,423, %6.2% NC75,581,18065,490,46959,493, %-21.3% SC44,739,63441,424,83632,030, %-28.4% TN60,533,66144,453,50338,878, %-35.8% VA38,423,85029,137,01826,542, %-30.9% WV88,496,22277,888,82577,485, %-12.4% SEMAP757,723,774671,841,150621,744, %-17.9% 18

Summary: Method 2 State CO2 Emissions (TPY)Change from 2005 (%) AL91,471,96584,415,46081,294, %-11.1% FL136,497,129125,036,102106,820, %-21.7% GA94,101,01777,579,42481,787, %-13.1% KY100,174,369100,916,64082,672,0160.7%-17.5% MS27,712,05525,498,87328,603, %3.2% NC75,581,18065,490,46961,618, %-18.5% SC44,739,63441,424,83632,539, %-27.3% TN60,533,66144,453,50339,322, %-35.0% VA38,423,85029,137,01833,198, %-13.6% WV88,496,72877,893,71178,401, %-11.4% SEMAP757,731,588671,846,036626,257, %-17.4% 19

Summary: Method 3 State CO2 Emissions (TPY)Change from 2005 (%) AL91,627,12383,643,27581,294, %-11.3% FL132,678,991124,819,832106,820, %-19.5% GA94,331,63477,429,96681,787, %-13.3% KY101,036,426101,065,37782,672,0160.0%-18.2% MS27,376,98825,560,89728,603, %4.5% NC78,517,66965,767,85061,618, %-21.5% SC45,385,18641,843,88132,539, %-28.3% TN60,957,22944,349,16739,322, %-35.5% VA43,953,94831,456,69933,198, %-24.5% WV89,547,52677,900,78778,401, %-12.4% SEMAP765,412,722673,837,730626,257, %-18.2% 20

Summary State Change from 2005 to 2011Change from 2005 to 2018 Method 1Method 2Method 3Method 1Method 2Method 3 AL-7.7% -8.7%-10.6%-11.1%-11.3% FL-8.4% -5.9%-17.7%-21.7%-19.5% GA-17.6% -17.9%-12.7%-13.1%-13.3% KY0.7% 0.0%-18.5%-17.5%-18.2% MS-8.0% -6.6%6.2%3.2%4.5% NC-13.4% -16.2%-21.3%-18.5%-21.5% SC-7.4% -7.8%-28.4%-27.3%-28.3% TN-26.6% -27.2%-35.8%-35.0%-35.5% VA-24.2% -28.4%-30.9%-13.6%-24.5% WV-12.0% -13.0%-12.4%-11.4%-12.4% SEMAP-11.3% -12.0%-17.9%-17.4%-18.2% 21

Conclusions Different methods give slightly different results Percent reduction varies between states Need closer examination of data and assumptions SEMAP states overall project 17-18% reduction from Some people are happier than others about the situation 22