Considering risk-based regulation from energy services bottom-up approach towards Net Zero Energy House Hang Dao, Carlos Silva Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon, Portugal Aalto University, Finland The Technology, Management and Policy Graduate Consortium 2014 Meeting

What is NZEH? |weighted energy supply| − |weighted energy demand| = 0

Energy consumption in buildings Total annual final energy use – residential and commercial building 31% of global final energy demand 1/3 of energy-related CO2 emissions 25–33% of black carbon emissions 31% of global final energy demand 1/3 of energy-related CO2 emissions 25–33% of black carbon emissions

NZEH in Portugal? How far Portugal can go for NZEH under the current residential context? EU Directive 2010 : “requires all member states ensure that by 2020 all new buildings are nearly zero-energy buildings”

Residential energy services in Portugal Residential energy service: A description of energy end-uses Heating & Cooling Water heating Lighting Media appliances Cooking Calculation Portuguese regulation for low-energy performance housing The Portugal national residential energy consumption survey The monitoring project by smart-meter in Lisbon

Residential energy services in Portugal Better energy class are not the ones that consume less energy Best energy class is not the best energy efficiency house

Residential energy services in Portugal Results The final energy consumption is lower than the maximum admissible consumption described in the regulation Regulation might overestimate the duration using heating system in the real weather condition of Portugal (Energy use for space heating and hot water are only 5% and 22% of the nominal values obtained from the regulation)

Energy-related consumption model in residential

Risk-based regulation and stratergies in residential energy consumption How could NZEH improve or encourage consumers on energy saving or to be more energy efficient? Handle with the extreme variation of household energy consumption Deal with uncertainties regarding consumer behavior intervention while shifting to NZEH

Recommendations Foster more robust bottom-up approach for energy- related behavior in residential sector Empower people to participate in the regulation making process Acquire what consumers need not from regulators Structure the frame work assessment for different level of risk

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