Jamie Bridges Charles Baber John Abraham Abdel-Rahman Muhsen Dimantha De Silva Sudipta Sarkar Baltimore Metropolitan Council HBA Specto Incorporated
Planning in the Baltimore MD USA region Coordinate land use and transportation policy and investments Built and are using a spatial-economic planning analysis model based on the PECAS framework Three scenarios analyzed Base scenario Limited road infrastructure Restrictions on rural development
Random utility based Industry and household categories making decisions Spatial market clearing Goods, services, labour, space Short term equilibrium Prices ≠costs Fixed quantity of space
Random utility based Parcel-by-parcel microsimulation 1 million parcels in Baltimore Enough samples from random number generator to generate reasonable and repeatable pattern “Highest and best use” most probable Return on investment j*rent z *mod – amt(cost)
Base growth rate from Cooperative Forecast Group Approved transportation network Zoning based on generalization of six comprehensive plans
Forgo $6Billion in highway infrastructure
Households Industry
Disbenefit especially for high income households Disbenefit for some industries Household location changes small Not generally a “concentration” Model predicts commercial subcentres due to freeway construction Complex economy Even in older established medium sized city
No development outside of Priority Funding Areas
Households Industry
Disbenefit especially for high income households Benefit for industries Residential re-allocates fairly evenly in allowed areas Non-residential / production much less intuitive Mixed use development on military area Perhaps not realistic because of zoning, but a good idea? Complex economy
Freeway effect alone small Baltimore freeways should be combined with other supportive policies Forced densification through zoning unpopular with high income households But popular for employers Model shows complex economy and relationships Supports more sophisticated and holistic policy space search