Land Use Scenarios Status

Encompass 2040 Scenarios Scenario 1: Continues similar development patterns of the past with no new zoning initiatives Scenario 2: Encourages infill and downtown development in each community Scenario 3: Outward expansion with clustered, mixed-use development 123 Scenarios Present

Allocation Land Suitability Analysis* Build-Out Analysis Constraint Analysis *Land Suitability Analysis Model only used for Scenario 2 and Scenario 3

Constraint Analysis Areas where development cannot occur Not a stand-alone tool Determines land available for development Used in Build-Out Analysis ComponentScenario 1 Floodways Parks Road Rights-of-Way Wildlife Management Areas Prime Farmland*

Constraint Analysis Development Constraints  Rights-of-way  Protected areas  Parks  Water bodies  Floodways  Open space  Wetlands  Farmland* Areas not available for development Constrained Area Map Areas available for development Build-Out Analysis Legend Analysis Tool Model Input Data Reference Map Model Output Next Model

Comparing CommunityViz to GAM Growth Allocation Model (GAM) Used by ACOG since 1985 Allocates future growth based on attraction and capacity Trend Continued CommunityViz More detailed analysis Allows for multiple growth scenarios Proximity analysis Assessment of scenarios GAM as calibration for CommunityViz

Development Capacity GAM Calculation Acreage available for future Land Use CommunityViz Build-Out Analysis Uses available land determined in Constraint Analysis Numeric and Spatial 8-10 hours to run

Build-Out Analysis Development Characteristics  Developable areas  Base data  Max density per city  Community & Place Types  Form & Pattern Table Site Efficiency Factor Areas of potential future development Potential Development Map Allocation Legend Analysis Tool Model Input Data Model Assumptions Model Output Reference Map Next Model

Attractiveness GAM Factors influencing development Rates for each Weighted based on correlation CommunityViz Land Suitability Analysis Rates (same as for GAM) Variable weight assumptions ComponentScenario 1 Schools Current Trends Downtowns Redevelopment Areas Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) Utilizes Existing Service Area Boundary

Land Suitability Analysis Attraction Factors  Current trend areas  Schools  Income  Density  Redevelopment areas  TODs  Service area boundaries Assign weights to attraction factors Calculate attraction score Land Suitability Map Allocation Legend Analysis Tool Model Input Data Dynamic Calculation Model Assumption Reference Map Next Model

GAMCommunityViz

Growth Allocation GAM Future development capacity Weighted attraction scores CommunityViz Future development capacity Constrained land Development characteristics Land Suitability Analysis attraction scores

Allocation Allocation Factors  Weighted attraction score (LSA)  Potential development areas (Build-Out)  Control totals Allocation Type Future year allocation Future Allocation Map Scenario Indicators Legend Analysis Tool Model Input Data Model Output Model Assumption Reference Map Scenario Evaluation

GAMCommunityViz

Progress of Scenario 1  Data Collection  Model Inputs  Constraint Analysis  Land Suitability Analysis  Build-Out Analysis  Refine: Community Types and development characteristics  Growth Allocation  Control totals  Scenario 1 Employment Scenario 1 Open Space Low Density Development Medium Density Development Open Space Low Intensity Development Medium Intensity Development High Intensity Development Town Center Metropolitan Center

Questions? Jennifer Sebesta (405)