Reconciliation of Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region Cooperative Forecasting Group April 5, 2005 Maryland Department of Planning Mark D. Goldstein

Components of Reconciliation Population by Age and Sex Population by Age and Sex Labor Force by Age and Sex Labor Force by Age and Sex Jobs by Place of Work Jobs by Place of Work Net Commutation Net Commutation

What Was Used Round 7 population for WashCog Jurisdictions Round 7 population for WashCog Jurisdictions MDP population by age distributions for MD jurisdictions MDP population by age distributions for MD jurisdictions VEC population by age distributions for WashCog VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C. VEC population by age distributions for WashCog VA Jurisdictions; U.S. Census Bureau for D.C. MDP projected LFPRs by age MDP projected LFPRs by age Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base for all jurisdictions Rnd 7 changes in jobs applied to BEA 2000 base for all jurisdictions

Population Change, Wash COG Region, Actual and RND 7 Projections Source: U.S. Census Bureau and local planning offices

Population Change in the WashCog Region by Major Age Cohorts, Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Labor Force Participation Rates by Age in the WashCOG Region, 2000 & 2030 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from U.S. Census Data

Projected Percentage Point Change in L.F.P.Rs in the Wash COG Region by Age, Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

LFPRs: MDP Projections WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+ Source: Maryland Department of Planning

LFPRs: MDP Projections vs. Constant 2000 LFPRs WashCog Region, Population Ages 16+ Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Total Labor Force and Job Growth in the WashCog Planning Region Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Washington Cog Region, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Reconciliation Process Given population, labor force and job projections and a constant jobs/employed persons ratio Given population, labor force and job projections and a constant jobs/employed persons ratio To balance: allow net commutation to fill in the gap between jobs and labor force totals To balance: allow net commutation to fill in the gap between jobs and labor force totals

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Washington, D.C., Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Washington, D.C. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 65,100 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Washington D.C., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Arlington Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Arlington Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 36,650 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Arlington Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Alexandria City, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Alexandria City Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 16,450 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Alexandria City, * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Net Commutation for Central Jurisdictions Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 118,250 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Central Jurisdictions Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Montgomery Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Montgomery Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 42,600 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Montgomery Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince George’s Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Prince George’s Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 123,650 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Prince George’s Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Fairfax Co, * Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices * Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church

Net Commutation for Fairfax Co.* Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 92,150 in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030 * Includes City of Fairfax and City of Falls Church

Net Commutation Rate for Fairfax Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Net Commutation for Inner Suburbs Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 258,350 turnaround in net commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for the Inner Suburbs, * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Loudoun Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Loudoun Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 48,150 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Loudoun Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Prince William Co, * Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices * Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park

Net Commutation for Prince William Co.* Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 31,900 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030 * Includes Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park

Net Commutation Rate for Prince William Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Calvert Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Calvert Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A modest increase in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Calvert Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Charles Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Charles Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 25,200 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Charles Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Frederick Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Frederick Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A decrease of 4,400 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Frederick Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in Stafford Co, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for Stafford Co. Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 8,000 in net OUT commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Stafford Co., * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Net Commutation for Outer Suburbs Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning An increase of 112,200 in net OUTcommutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for the Outer Suburbs, * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Net Commutation for the Washington COG Region Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 264,400 increase in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for Washington COG Region, * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

Net Commutation for the WashCog Region with Increasing LFPRs in 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

Net Commutation and Rates for the WashCog Region in 2030 Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning

Percent of Net Commuters into Washington COG Region in 2000 Source: The MNCPPC from U.S. Census,

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Baltimore Region, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for the Baltimore Region Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 157,300 “turnaround” between 2000 and 2030

Projected Population, Labor Force and Job Growth in the Baltimore & Wash COG Regions, Source: The Maryland Department of Planning and local planning offices

Net Commutation for the Baltimore & Washington COG Regions Source: U.S. Census, U.S. BEA and the Maryland Department of Planning A 421,650 increase in net in commutation between 2000 and 2030

Net Commutation Rate for the Baltimore & Washington COG Regions, * = net commutation divided by resident workforce= net commutation divided by resident workforce Source: Maryland Department of Planning

BMC Wash COG Rest of CMSA Adjacent Counties Spotsylvania Hampshire Fauquier Frederick Baltimore Harford Balto. City Howard Anne Arundel Calvert Montgomery Prince George’s Stafford Charles Loudoun Jefferson Clarke Warren Fairfax D.C. Prince William Carroll Cecil Washington St. Mary’s Caroline King George Franklin AdamsYork Lancaster Shenandoah Page Rappahannock Culpeper Orange Morgan Berkeley Queen Anne’s