The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency UI Overview and Forecasts Employment.

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Presentation transcript:

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency UI Overview and Forecasts Employment Security Council October 8, 2014 David Schmidt Research & Analysis Bureau

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency National Perspective: Trending Toward Solvency 2

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency National Perspective: Trending Toward Solvency 3

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada’s Trust Fund: Contribution Rates and Benefit Costs 4

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada’s Trust Fund: Total Employers Costs 5

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada’s Trust Fund: Rebuilding Trust Fund Reserves 6

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada’s Trust Fund: Rebuilding Trust Fund Reserves 7

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency Nevada’s Trust Fund: Benefit Cost Rate Trends

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2014 Trends: Slowing Decline in Initial Claims 9

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2014 Trends: Stabilizing Benefit Eligibility 10

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2014 Trends: Rebounding Weekly Benefits 11

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2014 Trends: Declining Benefit Use 12

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2014 Trends: End of Federal Benefits 13

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2014 Trends: Stabilizing Benefit Payments 14

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Review of Forecast for

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Review of Forecast for

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Review of Forecast for

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Historical Solvency Review 18

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: State Solvency Measure 19

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: AHCM Solvency Measure 20

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Potential 2015 Tax Rates 21

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Long Term Effect of Different Rates 22  Average time from end of one recession to start of the next during the last 50 years: 5.4 years (December 2014)  Longest time from end of one recession to start of the next during the last 50 years: 10 years (June 2019)

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Potential 2015 Rates vs. BCR 23

The Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation is a proactive workforce & rehabilitation agency 2015 Forecast: Other Considerations  When will a future recession hit?  5.4 years = December 2014 (average recovery)  10 years = June 2019 (longest recovery)  National projections for a long, slow recovery.  National and International Economic Concerns  Federal Reserve Ending QE  Europe, China, South America  Middle East Instability and Oil Prices  Bringing Stability to Employers  1.95% average rate leaves Regular UI rates flat  2.00% average rate most closely matches