Just how much delinquency is going on? Defining/Measuring Juvenile Crime Trends in Juvenile Delinquency, and Abuse/Neglect The Danger of Misusing Data

Measure of Interest for Juveniles Non-Delinquent Activity (Status Offenses) Hard to get reliable information Self-report probably most accurate Delinquent Activity (“Crime” for adults) Same sources of information as for adults, but how to tease out age? Abuse/Neglect Cases Official Data very suspect

Uniform Crime Reports Best for Serious Offenses/Crime Trends Offenses Known to police (useless for JD) Arrests/Crimes Cleared by Arrest Keep information for <18 years Bias = police discretion& practices, reporting Serious crimes <bias (discretion, reporting) Murder most reliable Downside = only most serious offenders included

National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) National household victimization survey For juveniles, cannot assess property crime National Trends for Juvenile Violent Crime can be estimated Aggravated Assault, Robbery, Forcible Rape (Not Murder) Upside = dark figure Downside = know age of offender?

Self-Report Surveys No government sponsored annual national level survey (not used for “trends”) Many different researchers with national surveys, some longitudinal: National Youth Survey (NYS) National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) Monitoring the Future Survey Best Uses = Correlates of Delinquency Especial for theory testing, but also race and gender differences

Self-Report II The Good The Bad Measure all kinds of correlates Not subject to “official bias” The Bad Difficult to measure serious crime (rare event) Difficult to get/retain chronic offenders Therefore, SR surveys tend to measure minor forms of delinquency Various survey biases (people lie, can’t remember, etc.)

What do we know? Current Levels of Delinquency 2001 UCR Arrest Information (<18 years) 2.3 million arrests Arrests peaked in 1994, and declined thereafter (NCVS follow similar pattern) Violent Crime Index declined for 7th straight year Murder rate from 1993-2001 down 70% Self-Report: 20% of 12th Graders report using an illicit drug in past 30 days.

Self-Report Example MTF: Use of Pot in Past 30 Days Percent Using in Past 30 Days

What does the NCVS say? Confined to Violent Crime Unsurprising much violent juvenile offending unreported to police Average Crime Rate—1980 to 1998 UCR: 5/100,000 NCVS: 44-75/100,000 Why? (From victim survey) Only 20% reported to police Of those, only 50% lead to arrest

NCVS Crime Trends The Broad Trend in UCR Violent Crime Index is similar to NCVS (Violent Crimes) Both decrease in early 1980s, followed by increase from mid-1980s to mid 1990s Both show substantial drop after mid 1990s Differences? NCVS offending drops more (60%) in late 1990s than UCR (27%)

Why has juvenile crime declined? Juveniles have declined in the population? NO: The proportion of juveniles has been increasing in the 1990s (echo boomers are coming) Poverty, Economy, Public Policy? No clear indications of This Best Argument I’ve Seen? Crack Epidemic Produced most of the violence in…now the drug markets have stabilized

“Super Predators”: Ideology and A Fools Errand John DiIulio et al. Body Count (1996) Super Predators Thesis Juvenile crime rates will continue to spiral out of control By 2010, some 270,000 “SP’s” will wreck havoc on society TIME Magazine (1996): “Ticking Time Bomb” Advocated unsealing juvenile records, mandatory minimums, waiver…”get tough” Legislation Follows (G.W. in Texas)

Debate Tips Come prepared Outline major points Do a timed “practice run” Prepare handout or slide show Prepare closing statement

Paper Tips ORGANIZE, ORGANIZE, ORGANIZE Use “sub-headings” DON’T simply cut and paste three papers together Address issues raised during the debate Acknowledge/refute opposite position