Automated Vehicles and the Built Environment: Scenario Exercises Caroline Rodier, Ph.D. Associate Director, Urban Land Use and Transportation Center Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis and Research Associate Mineta Transportation Institute, San Jose State University 24 July 2015

Exercise Overview Diverse expert workshop participants will break out into groups of 8 to 10 people to re-imagine and re-design a specific local geographic site in Ann Arbor and Detroit given a specified automated vehicle transportation system in the year 2040.

Exercise Overview You Have Been Provided with Handouts that Describe: 1.Built Environment Sites 2.Two Future Automation Systems (or Scenarios) 3.Future Socio-economic Trends 4.Automated Vehicle Pathways by Mode (Resource) Your Task: 1.Select and Apply System(s) and Trend(s) to Site(s) 2.Re-Imagine and Re-Design Site 3.Present Your Findings

List of Sites Two downtowns (Ann Arbor and Mid-Town Detroit) Traditional residential urban neighborhood (Burns Park, Ann Arbor) More modern suburban neighborhood (Angell, Ann Arbor) Business park-like area (North Campus, Ann Arbor) Strip Mall (Arborland, Ann Arbor) Two freight oriented sites (Ambassador Bridge and CPG, Detroit)

List of Sites You have been provided with text descriptions, pictures, and maps of the sites. Please review these and make your selections. These materials are also to be used as resources as you re-design and re-imagine the site.

Future Automated Vehicle Scenarios Two scenarios: ownership and shared Not predictions, but relatively extreme contexts in which to stimulate re-imaging and re-design. All assume level-four automation in 2040  Interact safely with pedestrian and cyclists  Platooning, noise, and safety benefits. Eight critical features of each scenario: payment model, transit, non-passenger travel, vehicle size, fleet size, costs, congestion, and parking  Describe each of these later in my presentation.

Assignments For the non-freight sites, each group will: 1.Specify who will live and work in the site. 2.Identify their needs, values, and preferences. 3.Describe a day in the life of typical individuals, households, and businesses. 4.Discuss resulting demands made on the space. 5.Redesign the space to meet the needs and preferences of those occupying the space given the selected automated transportation system and any specific economic and demographic trends.

Assignments For the freight sites, each group will: What entities supplying and demanding freight? What are the key origin and destination locations? How might automated truck travel be introduced into the regional transportation network? What are the barriers to implementing truck platoons with passenger vehicles? How might these barriers be overcome? What impact will automated truck travel have on the roadway network and the specific physical sites? May use a nearer term time horizon (2025) in which trucks are fully automated and the personal vehicle fleet includes automated and non-automated vehicles.

DESCRIPTION OF AUTOMATED VEHICLE SCENARIOS FOR 2040

   Home Work Shop Ownership: AM Peak

  Home Work Ownership: AM Peak Choices Mode ChoicePick-Up/Drop-Off Time Off-Peak Peak

  Home Shop School  OR Ownership: School Drop-Off and Mid-Morning Activity

   Home Work Shop Shared -Taxi: AM Peak

  Home Work Shared-Taxi: AM Peak Choices Service ChoicePick-Up/Drop-Off Time Off-Peak Peak

  Home Shop School  Shared-Taxi: School Drop-Off and Mid-Morning Activity

OwnershipShared-Taxi Higher levels of auto travel and congestion Lower levels of auto travel and congestion Higher quality vehicle travel at a price Significantly reduced cost of travel for all; Travelers pay more for greater travel distances, solo use, and larger vehicles New low-density land development in outlying areas of the region New higher density development in central areas of the region; Some sprawl for very high income Less proximate commercial parking and on-street parking Huge reductions in parking space: no on-street, residential and proximate commercial parking New off-street non-residential parking minimizes land costs and relocation travel

DESCRIPTION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS

Automation Automation: job losses, income in-equality, lower cost of living, and more leisure time. Job losses: transport, manufacturing, food production, retail, office, administrative, and logistics Raw materials and agricultural products remain valuable, but labor less valuable than attention and judgment. Many remaining jobs may be shared and “microjobs” or project oriented jobs that are offered on internet platforms ( 3-D printing (machines construct complex objects from digital designs) democratize means of mass production. New local industries focused on craftsmanship and artistry; “makerspaces” are common and the art scene flourishes.

Local Trends Falling population density, decentralized development patterns (or sprawl), and deterioration of the “first-ring suburbs,” but trend may be reversing, in walkable urban cores and close-in suburbs:  Growth in population (especially, college educated in 20s), economic, and property values.  Population is aging in these areas because younger people are priced out and are moving the drivable suburbs.  Lack of housing supply means that more people must live elsewhere and commute into Ann Arbor.