Transitioning Mature Satellite Products into CDRs and CIRs: NOAA’s CDR Project Jeffrey L. Privette, NOAA Acknowledgments: John Bates, Tom Karl, Ed Kearns and The Joint Agency Study Team on the Climate Impacts of the Nunn-McCurdy NPOESS Certification (incl. NASA, USGS)

2 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Outline  Motivation for Climate Data Records (CDRs)  NOAA’s New Start  Stakeholder-driven Development & Production

Long Term Records are Needed to Determine True IPCC Projection  IPCC model projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea ice vary greatly  Mitigation and adaptation strategies depend critically on identifying which models are best  Only high quality, sustained CDRs can validate climate model projections into the decades ahead *Resolution scale in Panel 1 is notional only. *

4 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Aqua AVHRR MODIS VIIRS N07N09N11N14N16N17N09 Polar-orbiting Satellite Record Can Reveal Climate Change Information NPP NPOESS 20 th Century 21 st Century ~ year Record From 2-3 Sensor Types 1:30 PM orbit

5 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor EDRs from NOAA Operational Satellites  Due to the independence of individual HIRS instrument ’ s calibration, biases exist from satellite to satellite.  These intersatellite biases have become a common source of uncertainty faced by long-term studies. Start of HIRS/3 HIRS/ S - 30N N06 N07 N08 N09 N10 N11 N12 N14 N15 N16 N17 Year

6 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Intersatellite Calibration and Correction Provides FCDR  Biases minimized.  Temperature dependent biases accounted for.  Similar overall variances between HIRS/2 and HIRS/3.  Time series can be extended as variance preserved. Pairs N06-N07N07-N08N09-N10N10-N11N11-N12N12-N14N14-N15N15-N16N16-N17 Ave Diff

7 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Solar Insolation From Research Satellites  Original data (EDRs) cover several decades  Multiple data sources  Work Needed for CDR: –Sensor models to explain differences –Development of homogeneous data set versions –Estimation of detectable variability and trends

8 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Climate Data Records (CDRs) Provide Long-term, Defensible Climate Benchmarks  Climate signatures tend to be small, but persistent, relative to normal environmental variability. Detection/analysis often requires long-term analysis  CDR is “… a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change” (NRC, 2004) NAS, 2004 Characteristics : o Long-term (multi-decadal) o Multi-satellite/multi-sensor (possibly ‘fused’ data sources) o Seamless, unified and coherent Normalized (minimal observatory and sampling artifacts) o Peer-reviewed, “best practice” or “community” algorithms o Validated (uncertainty well-characterized) o Well documented (incl. peer-reviewed literature) o Comprehensive metadata and QA information o Active data stewardship (reprocessings, refreshed storage media)

9 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Asheville, North Carolina  NCDC is the steward of the Nation’s in-situ and satellite data and information. Mission To provide access and stewardship to the Nation’s resource of global climate and weather related data and information, and assess and monitor climate variation and change.

10 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC A Mandated Responsibility Monitor and Describe the Climate 2007 Anomalies over Land and Sea NOAA/NCDC 7

11 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Example CDR Prioritization (Sort By IPCC, Algorithm Investment, Launch) CDR BundleCandidate Climate Data Records TEMPERTURE PROFILES Lower Stratospheric Temperature Profile, Lower Tropospheric Temperature Profile, Upper Tropospheric Temperature Profile, Surface Air Temperature REFLECTANCE PRODUCTS Surface Reflectance (BRF; NBAR), Blue Sky Albedo (instantaneous), Black/White Sky Albedo,Vegetation Index WATER VAPOR PROFILES Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor Profile, Lower Tropospheric Water Vapor Profile, Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor Profile, Total Column Water Vapor, Surface Water Vapor LAND/LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE Land Surface Temperature, Land Surface Emissivity (TIR), Lake Surface Temperature RADIATION BUDGET Top-of-Atmosphere Outgoing Long Wave & Short Wave Radiation, Surface Up/Down Long Wave & Short Wave Radiation GLACIERS/ICE CAPS Glacier Extent, Ice Sheet Extent OZONE Ozone Stratospheric Profile, Tropospheric Ozone, Total Column Ozone, Coarse Ozone Profile SEA PROPERTIES Sea Surface Temperature CLOUD PROPERTIES Cloud Column Water, Cloud Optical Thickness,Particle Phase, Particle Size, Cloud Top Pressure, Cloud Top Temperature, Cloud Top Emissivity, Cloud Column Water Vapor SNOW Snow Areal Extent AEROSOLS Aerosol Particle Size, Aerosol Optical Thickness, Aerosol Refractive Index SEA ICE (TEMPERATURE) Ice Surface Temperature CLOUD PROPERTIES Cloud Cover, Cloud Type FIRES (ENERGY) Active Fire Area, Active Fire Occurrence, Active Fire Temperature, Fire Radiative Power (FRP) TRACE GASES Tropospheric Column of CO, Tropospheric Column of CH4, Stratospheric CH4, Stratospheric CO2, Tropospheric Column of CO2, Lower Tropospheric CO2, Tropospheric N2O LAND COVER (THEMATIC) Land Cover Map (Thematic) IRRADIANCE Downwelling Total Solar Radiation at Top-of-Atmosphere, Downwelling Spectral Solar Radiation at Top-of-Atmosphere FIRES (BURNED AREA) Burned Area PRECIPITATION Rain Rate BIOPHYSICAL PRODUCTS Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR), Leaf Area Index OCEAN WINDS Global Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW), Coastal Ocean Surface Vector Winds (OSVW) OCEAN COLOR PRODUCTS Calcite Concentration, Fluorescence, Chlorophyll A Concentration, Total Suspended Matter LAKES Lake Area Extent LAND COVER (Cont. Fields) Fractional Tree/Grass Cover SEA LEVEL Basic Sea Level Geophysical Data Record (GDR), Significant Wave Height SNOW DEPTH Snow Water Equivalent, Snow Depth

12 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC Much Work Remains 12

13 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC CDR Prioritization Example etc. (28 CDR bundles in total) CDR bundle is costing convenience to group CDRs typically produced from the same or similar algorithm(s). Primary sensor is a costing convenience to associate each CDR with one and only one NPOESS era sensor. It is recognized that data from multiple satellite sensors, and in situ data, are often used to determine a CDR. Significance to Global Change follows from a review of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007). In development: Based on NASA ROSES ’06 A.15 and NOAA SDS 2007 selections. First launch considers only NPP/NPOESS era launches per the mandate of the NPOESS Climate Recovery activity. State and Forcing variable bundles, as defined by CCSP Strategic Plan Chapter 12, are prioritized at a 1:1 ratio.

14 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC CDR Production Occurs Within An End-to-End Program

15 NOAA’s SDS Project NPOESS Science Advisory Team Meeting, Asheville, NC  CDRs provide high quality, consistent long term satellite records appropriate for climate change detection and characterization  climate modeling environments, assimilation, model validation  Currently any satellite-derived CDRs are ad hoc research efforts  NOAA-NASA developed blueprint for migration of successful research satellite products into operational CDRs  President’s FY09 budget includes new NOAA funding for CDR program  AO for grant proposals on streets  NOAA Project will require understanding stakeholder priorities and extensive stakeholder shake-out/feedback on CDRs Summary