William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville The Economy:As Optimistic as an Economist Can.

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Presentation transcript:

William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville The Economy:As Optimistic as an Economist Can Be, Tax Revenues not so Positive

 National Economic Outlook  Tennessee Economy  Tennessee’s Fiscal Outlook William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 2

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Occupational Employment and Wages

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8 *

June 2014 William F. Fox, Center for Business and Economic Research, 9

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 10 *Sales-taxing states only.

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NONAG JOB LOSSES AND GAINS

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 21 Greater than 2.8% --26— High: ND = 18.6% 1.4% to 2.8% % to 1.4% --10— U.S. = 2.8% TN = 1.4% Less than 0.0% --7— Low: AK = -41.7%

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 22 Tax Revenues (in millions)

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 23

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William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 25 Source: State Tax Notes, Mikesell..

Tennessee Sales Tax Collections as a Percent of Personal Income, William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research

27 Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 28

 Normal government cost growth ◦ Pension – biannual adjustment ◦ BEP ◦ Higher Ed ◦ Debt Service ◦ Health Insurance ◦ Salary Increase  TennCare ◦ Medicaid expansion ◦ Woodwork effect  Total $580 million William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 29

 Gift tax  Inheritance tax  Lower rate for food  Larger exemption for the Hall Income Tax William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research 30

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 5 percentage points more likely to graduate high school than matched control students  20 percentage points more likely to enroll at any college  29 percentage points more likely to enroll in a community college  9.5 percentage points less likely to enroll in a four-year institution  Two-thirds of effect on community college enrollment came from students who would not have gone to college William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research