How We Estimated The CFS Out-of-Scope Sectors Felix Ammah-Tagoe, Ph.D. Senior Research Consultant/Project Manager MacroSys Research and BTS-Research and Innovative Technology Administration, USDOT Talking Freight Seminar February 15, 2006

Sector Coverage Sectors in CFS ManufacturingMining Wholesale tradeSelected Retail trade Sectors not in CFS ImportsPublishingFarm based ConstructionLoggingServices FisheriesRetailCrude Petroleum Municipal solid wasteNatural gas Sectors partially in CFS Exports Petroleum products Other sectors Household & office goods movesIn-transit Total composite national estimates Serve as benchmark for the FHWA Freight Analysis Framework II

Retail Trade CFS attempted to partially cover this sector but coverage was not as expected New estimates cover retail companies, including motor vehicle and parts dealers; furniture, home goods, electronic and appliance, building materials, clothing, etc. stores; and general merchandise stores. Data drawn from the VIUS, Economic Census, mileage data from the CFS, and input-output from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Retail Trade (cont.) Data sources and method of estimation –Values = Based on sales receipts of retail trade industries (from 2002 Economic Census) –Tons = Values * Weight-value ratios (from 2002 CFS) –Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per shipment (from 2002 VIUS) Remaining Issues –Need to provide estimates by mode

Construction CFS excludes shipments originating in the construction sector. The new joint estimates cover shipments of companies engaged in construction of residential and commercial buildings, utility systems, road and bridge construction, and specialty trade contractors. Estimates based on the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS), the Economic Census, and average miles per shipment information by commodity from the 1997 CFS.

Construction (cont.) Data sources and method of estimation –Ton-miles = Truck payload weight * Truck loaded miles (from 2002 VIUS) –Tons = Ton-miles / Miles per shipment (from 2002 VIUS) –Values = Tons * Value-weight ratios (from 2002 CFS) Remaining Issues –Shipments by truck only (other modes are not covered)

Services CFS excludes shipments originating in the service sector. New estimates covers shipments from service sector companies engaged in, for example, accommodation and food, rental and leasing, repair and maintenance, and scientific and technical services. Estimates based on the VIUS, the Economic Census, and average miles per shipment information by commodity from the 1997 CFS.

Services (cont.) Data sources and method of estimation –Ton-miles = Truck payload weight * Truck loaded miles (from 2002 VIUS) –Tons = Ton-miles / Miles per shipment (from 2002 VIUS) –Values = Tons * Value-weight ratios (from 2002 CFS) Remaining Issues –Shipments by truck only (other modes are not covered)

Logging Sector CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS –Logging changed from in-scope manufacturing under SIC code to out-of-scope agriculture under NAICS –The data gap includes logs and other wood in rough New estimates based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Statistics, the Rail Waybill Sample, and the Waterborne Commerce of United States

Logging (cont.) CFS excludes logging due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS Data sources and method of estimation –Tons = 1997 tons (from 1997 CFS) * growth of logs output (2002/1997) (from the Census of Agriculture) –Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per ton ratio (from 1997 CFS) –Values = Tons * Value-ton ratio (from 1997 CFS)

Publishing CFS does not cover publishing due to the switch from SIC to NAICS in the 2002 CFS. –Publishing changed from in-scope manufacturing under SIC code to out-of-scope information under NAICS –Commodities missing include printed products New estimates based on data from the Economic Census and average miles per shipment information from the 1997 CFS.

Publishing (cont.) Data Sources and method of estimation –Values = Sales receipts of NAICS 5111 and industries (from 2002 Economic Census) –Tons = Value * Value-ton ratio (from 2002 CFS) –Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per ton (from 2002 CFS)

Imports CFS excludes imports because CFS is shipper-based and covers domestic business only Estimates covers official U.S. merchandise imports trade by mode and commodity. Value and weight information derived from trade data. Ton-miles derived as sum of tonnage multiplied by estimated shipment travel distance for each mode.

Imports (cont.) Data source and method of estimation –Values = Based on data from Census Bureau –Tons = Based on data from the Transborder dataset, & Census Bureau’s Trade Statistics –Ton-miles = Tons * average length of haul (from Rail Waybill, BTS, US Army Corps of Engineers, 2002 CFS, & Association of Oil Pipelines) Remaining Issues –Double counting of some imports already covered by CFS

Exports While the CFS includes export, it partially covers all export shipments Our estimates represents the net difference between official U.S. merchandise exports and the exports measured in the CFS by mode and commodity.

Exports (cont.) Analysis indicates that CFS underestimates export shipments, and misclassifies modal distributions Data sources and method of estimation –Values = Values.T (from U.S. trade data) – 2002 CFS exports values –Tons = [Values.S * Weight-value ratios of imports (surface modes from official trade data)] + [Tons for air & water from official trade data] – [2002 CFS exports tons] –Ton-miles = [Tons.T * Miles per ton (from CFS export data)] – [2002 CFS exports ton-miles]

Household and Office Goods As a “shipper” survey the CFS does not cover these shipments Our estimates covers movement of household goods and used institutional or commercial furniture and equipment. Data from the Economic Census and the American Moving and Storage Association.

Household and Office Goods (cont.) –Principal commodities include electronics, furniture & mixed freight Data sources and method of estimation –Values = Sales receipt of NAICS (from 2002 Economic Census) –Tons = Values * Value per ton ratio (from American Moving and Storage Association) –Ton-miles = Tons * Miles per ton (from 2002 CFS)

Major Findings Released in Freight in America report Over $19 billion tons of freight valued at $13 trillion was carried over 4.4 trillion ton-miles in 2002 Typical day in Approx. 53 million tons of goods valued at about $36 billion moved nearly 12 billion ton-miles on the national multimodal transportation network

Major Findings Value (billion $) Tons (million) Ton–miles (billion) All Modes 1 13,052 19,487 4,409 Single modes 11,599 18,894 4,073 Truck 2 9,075 11,712 1,515 Rail 392 1,979 1,372 Water 673 1, Air (incl. truck and air) Pipeline , Multiple modes 1, Parcel, postal, or courier 1, Truck and rail Other multiple modes Unknown modes

Major Findings Trucking remains the mode of choice and is increasing in market share Nearly 1.7 billion tons of merchandise moved in and out of the US, accounting for over 9 percent of total tonnage

Comparison with 2002 CFS According to the composite estimates, more freight moves than reported in the CFS By value, 36 percent of the freight moved nationally were non-CFS shipments –About 40% by tonnage –About 29% by ton-miles

Comparison with 2002 CFS CFSNon-CFSTotal Value (billion $) 8,397 4,655 13,052 Tons (million) 11,668 7,819 19,487 Ton-miles (billion) 3,138 1,271 4,409 Percent share Value Tons Ton-Miles

Summary A large proportion of the freight shipments of the United States is not covered by CFS Possible to use surrogate data sources to reliably estimate out-of-score sectors Further research needed to, for example: –Estimate construction, services, and retail shipments by other modes besides trucks

Follow-Up Questions? Felix Ammah-Tagoe 202/