New Ways to Communicate & Collaborate within the Weather & Climate Enterprise Veronica Johnson – AMS Board on Enterprise Communication NBC 4 Washington, DC & Eve Gruntfest - AMS Board on Societal Impacts University of Colorado-Colorado Springs, Session 1: Communicating & Connecting Reports on Exciting Projects that Integrate Meteorology & Social Science AUGUST 11, 2008

Societal Impacts Program Jeff Lazo NCAR

... improve the societal gains from weather forecasting by infusing social science and economic research, methods, and capabilities into the planning, execution, and analysis of weather information, applications, and research directions. Societal Impacts Program Private sector Academics US Government International Research Organizations Weather Enterprise

Societal Impacts Program Community Development and Support American Meteorological Society National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Research Council World Meteorological Organization National Science Foundation Information Resources Weather and Society Watch Extreme Weather Sourcebook Weather and Society Discussion Group Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Primary Research Overall US Sector Sensitivity Assessment Communicating Uncertainty Sources, Perceptions, Uses, and Values Hurricane Warning Communication and Valuation Storm Data

Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Eve Gruntfest and Julie Demuth AMS Summer Community Meeting, Boulder, CO August 11, 2008 AMS Summer Community Meeting, Boulder, CO August 11, 2008

WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues –I don’t know how, and… –I don’t know anyone else who does this kind of work” “I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT…

WAS*IS Vision To change the weather enterprise by comprehensively & sustainably integrating social science into meteorological research & practice

WAS*IS Mission 1.Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders — from the grassroots up — who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science Capacity building -- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support!

2.Provide opportunities to learn and examine ideas, methods, and examples related to integrated weather-society work Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods Concepts – problem definition, speaking the same language, end-to-end-to-end process Topics – risk perception, vulnerability, resilience WAS*IS Mission

The WAS*IS Adventure Began as 1 workshop … now 6 (so far)! Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006) Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) Summer WAS*IS (July 2006) Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007) Summer WAS * IS (July 2007) 2008 Summer WAS*IS is in progress As of August 15, 2008, 171 WAS*ISers!......

Some of the WAS*IS accomplishments? TEACHING - New course offerings in Weather & Society U North Carolina Asheville U of Oklahoma U of Colorado Denver RESEARCH Grants Publications Presentations at professional meetings NEW JOBS WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS STARTING TO CHANGE DIALOGUES WITHIN & BETWEEN AGENCIES – sensitivity to societal impacts Chris Godfrey Sam Ng

Questions relevant to the Enterprise  How do people use forecast and warning information to make decisions?  What weather forecast and warning information do people want?  How can we better understand varying levels of impacts caused by weather events?  How are people affected differently by the same weather events due to their varying vulnerabilities and abilities to take action?  How can we more effectively communicate weather forecast uncertainty information?  How do we provide good weather forecast and warning information given the proliferation of information (sources, media, modes)?

WAS*Is CULTURE CHANGE IS UNDERWAY Today’s presenters will show you some of the WAS*Isers’ work

WAS*ISers are changing the culture to integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways

Thanks for the opportunities to develop WAS*IS concept & workshops Most support from The National Center for Atmospheric Research The Societal Impacts Program (SIP) US Weather Research Program National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Additional funding from University of Oklahoma, & Monash University Sustainability Institute, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Emergency Management Australia & others

Social science woven into Meteorology (SSWIM) New The National Weather Center – Norman, OK May 1, April 30, 2011

Funding ~50% NOAA & 50% U of Oklahoma Three main goals 1. To recognize & develop the existing social science activities in Norman 2. To build a strong integrated community of practitioners, researchers, & others with particularly early career folks to coordinate new projects & proposals that weave social science into the fabric of the National Weather Center 3.To assess the viability & interest in a new interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at the University of Oklahoma focused on the societal impacts of weather & climate change Focus on the willing – no one being dragged into these new projects

3 year effort - personnel Dr. Eve Gruntfest geographer with 30 years experience as social scientist working with meteorologists -.25 time 2 Ph.D. students working on interdisciplinary degrees - Dedicated to integrating social science into National Weather Center 1 full time Post-doc - Poised to take leadership of integrated social science activities

Heather Lazrus Environmental anthropologist Extensive experience with NOAA Fisheries – conducting interviews in Alaska & Pacific Northwest How climate change & new policies affecting livelihoods & outlooks Dissertation research 10 months living on TUVALU, small island nation in South Pacific – how are THEY dealing with sea level rise?

Kim Klockow Interdisciplinary Ph.D. - Meteorology & Economics Master’s work Interviewing farmers about how they value weather information from the Oklahoma mesonet Ph.D. to focus on new ways to verify warnings

Gina Eosco Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication Master’s work Interviewing forecasters & government officials about their interpretation, objective, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool

Projects that Integrate Social Science and Meteorology (8 min each) Kevin Barjenbruch - NWS/SLC WFO: WAS*IS Partnership Initiative Rebecca Morss - NCAR/MMM: Importance of Engaging Users and Understanding Their Needs Julie Demuth - NCAR Societal Impacts Program: Results from the Communication of Uncertainty Survey Sheldon Drobot - University of Colorado: Sea Ice Forecasting Gina Eosco - AMS Policy Program: Meaning of the Hurricane Cone of Uncertainty

WAS*IS Partnership Initiative Kevin Barjenbruch NOAA’s National Weather Service Melissa Tuttle Carr The Weather Channel

Key Messages: Partnership Initiative Improved communication and collaboration within the weather enterprise will lead to improved products and services, and better and more understandable weather information. This ultimately benefits the public as they receive the best, most useful weather information so they can take action and protect life and property.

Our role in the weather enterprise Partnership Initiative Start (and continue) the partnership conversation within and between sectors. Introduce people with similar partnership interests. Act as an interface between those we talk to and larger partnership-related projects. Work on partnership-specific projects, such as the NWS CAP Team and Partners Meeting enhancements.

Visits/Presentations 2006/2007 NWS Partners Meetings NWS Western, Central, and Eastern Region Headquarters NWS National Headquarters The Weather Channel AMS ITS/Surface Transportation Committee Meeting th AMS Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA NWS Partners Meeting People in attendance from the government and private sectors, academia, and other groups Projects and Progress

Partners Meeting Enhancements Working with NWS Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services on enhancements to NWS Partners Meetings Inclusion of private sector on agenda; more interactive format Projects and Progress

NWS Partners Website Launch of Partners Website Concept was suggested based on illustration of need at our NWS Headquarters meeting Projects and Progress

NWS CAP Team Advocate use of CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) for NWS Watch, Warning and Advisory products NWS-lead, cross-sector CAP Team formed in April 2007, continues work on initiatives Projects and Progress

Continue presentations and conversations Emphasis on societal impacts in daily work of weather enterprise Understand how partners/customers use and disseminate data and products Understand how the public uses products and data; ensure they are served in the best way; give them information they understand and will fully utilize Ensure all levels of organizations are educated with this information The Future

Continue participation in projects Broader, more meaningful work on partnerships Understand how partners/customers use data and products and learn how to provide support accordingly Keep lines of communication open Good Examples: CAP Team Early engagement on winter changes Learning Opportunity: Western Region SVR/FFW combination The Future

Wrap Up Melissa Tuttle Carr Kevin Barjenbruch Thank you!

Engaging Users and Understanding Their Needs Rebecca Morss NCAR

Why engage users and understand their needs? A major goal of the weather and climate enterprise is to provide useful information To provide useful information, we need to understand who will use the information, how Engaging users helps them buy in Users must be involved from the beginning of projects -- incorporating their needs at the middle or end is usually too late

Research Application User

ResearchApplication Users

ResearchApplication Users Problem-oriented research

How to engage users and incorporate their needs into projects? Example mechanisms (adapted from Morss, Lazo, et al., BAMS, 2008) Examining how users incorporate forecast information into their decisions Improving communication of forecast information by understanding users’ information needs Developing user-relevant verification measures Estimating value of forecasts to users Developing decision support tools

Providing Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information to the Public Julie Demuth, Rebecca Morss, & Jeff Lazo NCAR Societal Impacts Program USWRP AMS Summer Community Meeting, Boulder, CO August 11, 2008 AMS Summer Community Meeting, Boulder, CO August 11, 2008

The forecast high temperature for Boulder tomorrow is 88ºF. a) 88ºF b) 87-89ºF c) 86-90ºF d) 83-93ºF e) 78-98ºF What do you think the actual high temp will be?

Methodology Nationwide controlled-access web survey of public Analysis based on N=1465 completed responses Uncertainty-related research questions: How much confidence do people have in different types of weather forecasts? Do people infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts and, if so, how much? How do people interpret a type of uncertainty forecast that is already commonly available and familiar: PoP? To what extent do people prefer to receive forecasts that are deterministic versus those that express uncertainty? What formats do people prefer for receiving forecast uncertainty information?

Suppose the forecast high temperature for tomorrow for your area is 75°F. What do you think the actual high temperature will be? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 75°F74-76°F (± 1°F) 73-77°F (± 2°F) 70-80°F (± 5°F) 65-85°F (± 10°F) Other Percent of Respondents N=1465

0%10%20%30%40%50% Prefer Channel A (deterministic) Prefer Channel B (uncertainty) Like both channels Like neither channel I don't know Percent of Respondents Suppose you are watching the local evening news … The Channel A weather forecaster says the high temperature will be 76°F tomorrow The Channel B weather forecaster says the high temperature will be between 74°F and 78°F tomorrow. N=1465

Broader implications Interest in providing uncertainty information… …but limited understanding of how to do this Empirical knowledge about what weather forecast information people get, want, use, etc. is critical Provide people information that they actually want and use rather than what we think they do (or should) want and use So much from social sciences (ideas, methodologies, theoretical frameworks, etc.) to integrate!

Sea Ice Forecasting Sheldon Drobot University of Colorado

Changes in the ice Age 1 Age 2 Age 3 Age 4 Age 5 Age

Some sea-ice societal impacts Possibilities for new shipping routes Wildlife management Changes in weather patterns Decadal Trend (%100)

A 30-day forecast Sea-ice concentration (%100)

A Study of Visual Communication: Cyclones, Cones and Confusion Gina Eosco AMS Policy Program University of Oklahoma

Slide Title Level 1 Level 2 Study Goals  Original Goal: What is wrong with the cone of uncertainty?  Current Goal: Phase 1 of answering, how does scientific intent translate through a graphic to evoke public understanding of science and risk assessment Forecasters Public 1 2 Evacuate? Stay home? It won’t hit me.

Message Objectives  Scientific Uncertainty  “Bottom line the answer to your question is whether we’ll be able to give the public an idea of the uncertainty to provide the real detailed information, well how to use it to decision makers at the local and state level to help them with their tough calls.”  Risk (Impacts)  “If you were close enough to that track … then know you should expect damage within 50 miles of landfall.”  Confidence (certainty)  “It [the cone] represents where we expect the center of circulation to be, within the next so many days, and we have timelines on there every 12 hours. It represents the certainty of where we expect the center of circulation to be, only the circulation, not the impacts.”

Mapping the Objective Messages

Behavioral Objectives  Beginning of Hurricane Season……………Prepare now!  Formation…………………………………………….Keep Listening  5-day Cone…………………………………………..Prepare for a possible hurricane  …………………………………..…..Start listening to your emergency managers (EMs)/local decision makers  3-day Cone…………………………………………..Begin to Implement Hurricane plan/Listen to EMs  Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch………..Listen to EMs/Implement Your Plan!  Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning……..Implement Your Plan!!

Mapping the Behavioral Messages

What does all of this mean?  Visuals may have a complex relationship between its design and its verbal/written objectives.  How do these variables interact? And with what effect?  Visual framing may help scientists create visuals that achieve high visual validity, that is, the public may take away the intended message.  Can we create guidelines for visual framing?  What other factors play into achieving visual validity?

I’ll leave you with this …

Discussion questions What are the opportunities to extend the collaborations across sectors & across disciplines to improve forecast effectiveness & broader understanding of weather and climate science? What innovative strategies can we recommend for increasing beneficial communication, collaborations, & coordination within all aspects of the enterprise, & among all sectors of the weather and climate community?

Questions relevant to the Enterprise  How do people use forecast and warning information to make decisions?  What weather forecast and warning information do people want?  How can we better understand varying levels of impacts caused by weather events?  How are people affected differently by the same weather events due to their varying vulnerabilities and abilities to take action?  How can we more effectively communicate weather forecast uncertainty information?  How do we provide good weather forecast and warning information given the proliferation of information (sources, media, modes)?