PISA: Behind the headlines and past the rankings Sue Thomson Director, Educational Monitoring and Research, ACER National Project Manager PISA National Research Coordinator TIMSS, PIRLS

Australia has developed a high quality, world-class schooling system, which performs strongly against other countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In international benchmarking of educational outcomes for 15-year-olds in the 2006 OECD Programme for International Student Assessment, Australia ranked among the top 10 countries across all three education domains assessed. Over the next decade Australia should aspire to improve outcomes for all young Australians to become second to none amongst the world’s best school systems. Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs (MCEETYA) (2008). Melbourne Declaration on Educational Goals for Young Australians. Carlton: Curriculum Corporation. National goal

Melbourne Declaration released just prior to release of results from PISA 2006 (December 2008) PISA 2003 data showed that Australia ranked:  equal 5 th in maths;  equal 2 nd in reading  equal 4 th in science Data for this presentation focussed on mathematical literacy as this was the major domain for PISA 2003 and PISA 2012, allowing comparisons over time to be made Context / timing

2003 Hong Kong Korea Netherlands Finland Australia Macao China Japan Liechtenstein Switzerland Canada Belgium Ireland Austria France Germany Poland Sig. higher than Australia Not sig. higher to Australia Sig. lower than Australia THE RANKINGS …

2003 Hong Kong Korea Netherlands Finland 2012 Australia Macao China Japan Liechtenstein Switzerland Canada Belgium Sig. higher than Australia Not sig. different to Australia Australia Ireland Austria France Ireland Austria France Germany Poland Hong Kong Korea Netherlands Finland Macao China Japan Liechtenstein Switzerland Canada Belgium Germany Poland

What is the real story?

Was this the case for all students?

In terms of proficiency levels? Low - Level 1: Students can answer questions involving familiar contexts where all relevant information is present and the questions are clearly defined. They are able to identify information and carry out routine procedures according to direct instructions in explicit situations. They can perform actions that are almost always obvious and follow immediately from the given stimuli High -Level 6: Students can conceptualise, generalise and use information based on their investigations and modelling of complex problem situations, and can use their knowledge in relatively non-standard contexts. Students at this level are capable of advanced mathematical thinking and reasoning… Students at this level can reflect on their actions, and can formulate and precisely communicate their actions and reflections regarding their findings, interpretations and arguments, and can explain why they were applied to the original situation

High and low achievers

So, that’s who’s to blame! Girls! Is this the case, and is it the whole story?

Gender differences Australia one of SIX countries in the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 1994/95 with no gender differences in Year 8 maths One of the few countries with no gender differences in ADVANCED maths at year 12 No gender difference in PISA 2003 Both males and females’ scores significantly higher than OECD average in 2003

but between 2003 and

where is the decline in scores?

Difference in scores between males and females

Percentage of high and low achievers

So we have learned: the overall decline in Australia’s score is a reflection of a decline by both males AND females, but more of a decline by females score for females now not significantly different to the OECD average Much of the decline for females has been at the lower end of achievement Gender gap at highest percentile of achievement DECREASED between 2003 and 2012 For both males and females, there are a larger proportion of students failing to achieve the minimum benchmark of Proficiency level 2, and fewer achieving the higher Proficiency levels.

Past the rankings: attitudes and beliefs Intrinsic motivation Instrumental motivation Self-concept Self-efficacy Maths anxiety

Intrinsic motivation Intrinsic motivation: the amount of interest or enjoyment in maths. “I am interested in the things I learn in maths” 46% of females agreed with this statement compared to 61% of males in Australia, and 53% of students on average across the OECD. On average females scored more negatively than the OECD average, males more positively.

Instrumental motivation As well as being motivated by enjoyment, students are also influenced to study subjects they perceive will be useful for them in their future. Measured by items such as “Mathematics is an important subject for me because I need it for what I want to study later on” 80% of Australian males agreed compared to 67% of females. Both higher than the OECD average but for males this belief was substantially stronger than for females

Self- concept Self-concept: how confident is the student in general in maths? “I learn maths quickly” 62 per cent of males and 46 per cent of females agree with this, compared to the OECD average of 52 per cent. The average self-concept in mathematics of Australian females was significantly more negative than both the male students and the OECD on average.

Self- efficacy Self-efficacy: How confident am I on this particular task? “Calculating the petrol consumption rate of a car”, for example. This item showed the most difference in confidence levels of males and females in Australia, with 41 per cent of females saying they were confident or very confident of being able to calculate this, compared to 66 per cent of males and 54 per cent of students on average across the OECD.

Maths anxiety Maths anxiety is the worry or tension felt when confronted with mathematical tasks. It can have a negative impact on students’ ability to demonstrate their potential in a subject. In PISA 2003 and PISA 2012 anxiety was measured by asking students their level of agreement with five statements:  I often worry that it will be difficult for me in mathematics classes  I get very tense when I have to do mathematics homework  I get very nervous doing mathematics problems  I feel helpless when doing mathematics problems  I worry that I will get poor grades in mathematics.

Which girls? All girls…

Change over time

Implications and consequences In economic terms, Hanucheck and Woessman have calculated that if all students in Australia were to achieve the minimum OECD proficiency, Proficiency Level 1, there would be a possible 16 per cent increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Imagine if all students were to achieve Level 2, not just in terms of GDP, but also in terms of having a better life. Too many Australian students are not achieving their potential in mathematics. Gender differences matter. Lack of engagement by female students in mathematics translates into many of them dropping mathematics as soon as they are able, cutting out many further courses of study and careers.

Looking to the adult population Unlike reading literacy, in which males catch up to females in adulthood, the gap in mathematical literacy remains into adulthood. This is borne out by findings from the most recent Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC):

What does this all mean for policy? Curriculum? What about for classroom teaching?