Welcome

Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) P.Batima, PI of the project, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop Bangkok, March 2002

Climate change studies in Mongolia Climate change studies in Mongolia Project objectives Project objectives Institutional Involvement Institutional Involvement Methodology Methodology Results Results Contents:

Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia

The first climate change study carried out under the US Country Studies Program (USCSP), in which prepared the first GHG inventory for 1990 and conducted preliminary assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia

In 1999 Mongolia has developed its National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) with assistance from the Government of the Netherlands. The programme comprises an overview of impact assessment, possible adaptation measures, GHGs emission inventory and its projections, GHGs mitigation measures, and response measures’ implementation strategies. Mongolia has submitted the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in Climate Changes Studies in Mongolia

Project Development Implement NAPCC Contribute to second NC

Project Objectives

The ministry most closely involved in climate change and environmental problem is the Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE). The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology is the administrating institution for the project implementation. The institute conducts climate change studies since Other important organizations, which are involving in the project activities, the JEMR Co.LTD, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, International Institute for Study of Nomadic Civilization, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Information and Computer Center, Institute of Geography, SATU Co.LTD, Mongolian National University, University of Agriculture and others. Private sectors and NGOs are also involving in climate change activities. Institutional Involvement

Stakeholder ConsultantsExpertsWorkshop

Field survey ++ Participatory involvement survey + Training The analytical approaches are based on review and evaluation of past studies and learning from the evaluation. The ecosystem model “CENTURY”, The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight and Basin Conceptual model Remote sensing and GIS technologies are using for data gathering, thematic processing of attributes, maps and images Methodologies

Work plan Past and present climate change impact Past and present climate change impact Vulnerability and Future CC impact Vulnerability and Future CC impact Integrated and Adaptation Assessment Integrated and Adaptation Assessment

Trend analysis Temperature (annual, seasonal, heath and Temperature (annual, seasonal, heath and cold wave) cold wave) Precipitation (annual, seasonal, percentile) Precipitation (annual, seasonal, percentile) Responses to climate change Natural resources (water, snow cover, soil) Natural resources (water, snow cover, soil) Pasture (productivity, capacity, phenology) Pasture (productivity, capacity, phenology) Animal husbandry (weight, productivity) Field study Natural disaster

Trend analysis

World air temperature C for last 100 years Annual mean temperature 1.66 o C of Mongolia Winter temperature 3.61 o C Spring 1.5 o C Summer 0 o C Changes in Temperature

Changes in Precipitation

Responses to climate change

26-IX 1-X 6-X 11-X 16-X 21-X 26-X 31-X 5-XI Water Resources

Ìèæèääîðæ, ªëçèéñàéõàí Snow Cover

Æèí / êã Áàÿðáààòàð Animal Husbandry

Natural disaster

Drought and wind storm

Field survey

Past and present CC Impacts Identify more vulnerable areas and sectors Assess potential impacts Identify adaptation options Examine constrains Formulate alternative strategies Develop implementation strategies Steps

Based on the results of the Impact and V&A assessment on key socio-economic and environmental sectors, the following documents, consistent with Mongolia National Action Program on Climate Change, will be prepared and submitted to the Government Report of Climate Change Impact and V&A Assessment for socio-economic development. The report will include vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems and pastoral systems to climate change (warming, variability and extremes) and land use intensity identified through integrated impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, using long-term climate and plant records, RS sensing data (AVHRR and TM), ecosystem model CENTURY and field survey. Recommendations of the economically effective and culturally acceptable adaptation measures in pasture management and livestock development to support national sustainable development strategies will be suggested. Implementation strategies of the most promising adaptation measures in vulnerable region will be recommended. Climate mitigation options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated, and potential adaptation strategies for policymaking will be developed for each land use type regions, with particular emphasis on the most vulnerable coupled environment-human systems. Several peer-reviewed papers and “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem and Pastoral System to Climate Change in Mongolia” book will be written as a result of this project. Outputs