Real World Applications of USGS EQ Science: Stacy Bartoletti Degenkolb Engineers Structural Engineers Association of Washington Cascadia Region Earthquake Workgroup

EERI Seattle Fault EQ Scenario Project Conceived in 1996 – Real Work Since 2001 Volunteer Team of Seismologists, Geologists, Engineers, Planners, Emergency Managers, and Social Scientists

Key Statistics Economic Loss Due to Damage - $33B Deaths > 1,600 and Injuries > 24,000 Buildings Destroyed – 9,700 and Unsafe to Occupy – 29,000 Recovery Period – Several Years

USGS Science – Ground Motions Magnitude 6.7 EQ Real Event – Seattle Fault has had 4 similar or greater events in past 3,000 years Fault Runs Through Major Areas of Seattle and Bellevue Peak Ground Acceleration Magnitude 6.7 Modeled fault I Major Discoveries in Past 10 to 20 Years Using Latest Science

USGS Science Ground Motions % gravity 0 75 Seattle Olympia

Ground Failure Fault Rupture Liquefaction Landsliding Lateral Spreading

Life Lines Water and Wastewater Liquid Fuel and Nat Gas Electrical Power Communications

Transportation Systems Roads and Bridges Rail Airports Ports and Ferries

Buildings Unreinforced Masonry Pre 1970 Tilt Up Commercial Buildings with Extensive Damage 50,000+ Households Displaced

Essential Facilities Schools Hospitals Fire Stations Police Stations

Priority Recommendations Independent State Seismic Safety Commission or Board Implement Risk Reduction Plans for Critical Facilities Retrofit High Risk Buildings Protect the Transportation Infrastructure

CREW – Cascadia Scenario M9.0 Earthquake Scenario January 26, 1700 Last Rupture Geologic Evidence for Return Periods of About 200 to 1000 Years

Key Subduction Zone Issues Strong Shaking for Several Minutes Long Period Ground Motions Destructive Tsunami Will Hit Coast Potential for Significant Aftershocks

Impacts to Various Regions Coast – High Ground Motions, Significant Damage, Tsunami I5 – Moderate Ground Motions, Tall Blds, Old Blds, NS Damage East of Cascades – Minimal Ground Motions, Little Damage, Source of Recovery

Conclusions/Recommendations Continue to Develop Understanding of Seismic Hazard Assess Earthquake Impacts on Built Environment and Communities Work to Reduce Earthquake Impacts on Built Environment and Communities Expand Education and Public Outreach

Degenkolb Engineers