What will it cost to achieve MDG-1 Michiel A. Keyzer Centre for World Food Studies (SOW-VU) Amsterdam

Background Millennium declaration, September 2000 MDGs to be reached in 2015 Financial requirements within reach of donors: “can do” message good for public support Well-defined list of targets helps donor coordination Total ODA Increase over commitments485074

Questions How realistic are the estimates? Are the necessary mechanism in place to monitor their achievements? Do proposed measures promote sustainable growth?

(1) Estimates: procedure 1. Define “shopping list of targets” 2. Apply costing of targets for selected countries 3. Derive per capita totals (US$ 77.5 in 2006; US$ in 2015) 4. Add estimated financing needs for middle- income countries and global actions 5. Calculate total financing needs 6. Assume share of domestic financing 7. Calculate required ODA in billions of US$

(1) Estimates: what is overlooked Actual budgeting omits many items Health Malaria (US$ 0.1–9 per patient depending on resistance) Leprosy (US$ per patient) Infrastructure Telecommunications Security along transport routes Upgrading ports, secondary roads, storage facilities Irrigation schemes Education buildings, materials Upscaling of number of teachers

(1) Estimates: general comments Constancy of prices neglects upward push from intensified use of scarce resources Engineers Teachers to “teach the teachers” Interconnections are ignored Expansion of rural health system requires expansion rural infrastructure Universal education requires buildings and infrastructure Optimistic view on quality of governance Explicit exclusion of countries that have “unwilling” government Investment in local governments not explivitly included in budgets

(2) Measurement of achievement Indicators for MDG-1 Proportion of population below $1 (PPP) per day Poverty gap ratio [incidence x depth of poverty] Share of poorest quintile in national consumption Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption

(2) Case: number of undernourished people in Sub-Saharan Africa

(3) MDGs and sustainable development Shopping list approach ignores lessons from Asia Growth solution to poverty 15 years too short to see full results Growth starts in growth poles: strong urban areas Spreading through migration and relocation of production Government which is crucial for growth as well as for provision of social safety nets, not part of the costs Governance is important but cannot be scaled up at will

(3) MDGs and sustainable development (cont’d) Governance and donor involvement Insist of respect of human rights and fight corruption But stop treating governance as a simple moral entity measured as an index on the scale from bad to good Take it seriously as a field with definite technological relationships, to the understanding of which research can contribute Use this knowledge in development policy Focus on strength, economic as well as institutional Do not fight bad governance everywhere Stay in the background: Give maximum exposure to local leaders, both in success and in failure MDG realization will primarily depend on their capacities to govern Governance needs non-tradable inputs, such as the authority and respect for local leaders, that have to accumulate locally on the basis of own success and cannot accumulate at will

Summing up Clear list of targets may be effective in mobilizing public support However: Shopping list approach has danger of omissions of items and of interrelations Lessons from Asia, rapidly growing from near- hopeless situation 30 years ago, are ignored Aid could undermine rather than promote good governance

Asian drama 30 years ago… …and present