Violence Finishing Off our Model

A “general theory” of political violence Psychological Pre-Conditions Socio-Biological Factors Economic Structures & Preconditions Scope Intensity Types of Political Violence Social Conditions Political Variables

Political variables: Leaders Short term A strong response that is firm but fair tends to be most effective. Repressive response against one group or faction to “make an example” will work about 15% of the time, but lead to worse violence about 85% of the time. A solution? Sketch out substance and style of new long term policies with legitimacy and you can deter most of the violence, especially if some short term rewards are available and dispensed. Long term Will succeed if they are mindful of the post-conflict phase that is multi-track in its challenges. Avoid the conflict trap economically and the “hate” & “scapegoating” trap socially. There need to be institutions which assist and support peace processes and which redress grievances. Ultimately this involves a substantial dose of “the rule of law”.

Political variables: Insurgents Short term SURVIVE!! Provoke illegitimate, i.e. overly repressive, response by government – suffer! Gain legitimacy from outsiders and population via actions & by declining government support. Show yourself as a viable alternative institution. Long term Take and hold areas & provide services and security which government cannot provide. Promote conditions which show government that it cannot win. Have demands or a plan that looks increasingly plausible, if not desirable, to the population.

Types of political violence to be explained: Assassination, kidnapping Terrorism State violence - Gross violations of human rights thru genocide Turmoil and unrest Group Insurgency Civil war

Making generalizations…. Or in the language of social science, how we sketch out or formulate hypotheses – which essentially are probabilistic claims about social phenomenon…

A “general theory” of political violence Psychological Pre-Conditions Socio-Biological Factors Economic Structures & Preconditions Scope Intensity Types of Political Violence Social Conditions Political Variables

What else to keep in mind?

Where Collier is coming from: The “greed vs. grievance” debate. The political economy of post-conflict economies The further analysis of the complexities and impacts of greed…which ultimately makes crime and corruption a key peace issue

Why read Collier? Questions to explore: What are his causal dynamics? Besides causes, what also operates for him and his colleagues? What generalizations might we make about civil war? What works to deal with this conflict trap problem?