Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 Review & Future Directions Ron Johnston IPTS

[Paper title] Some Interesting Quotes Prediction is difficult, especially when it concerns the future In the good old days, the future was better A strange thing about foresight is that you rarely hear anything about the future We keep assuming that decision-making is rational To be rid of our illusions, if it does not break our courage, is a liberating experience

[Paper title] Contradictions, Conflicts and Weaknesses The first author has given us a fine roadmap, whilst the second and third authors provide a picture of dynamic traffic lights, which are not always in the same place and the colour red, amber and green can vary, in both order and wavelength. However we all know that ignoring or misinterpreting traffic lights can be fatal. So ignore them at your peril.

[Paper title] Foresight is.... A social technology A set of methods, not a methodology Infrastructure of the knowledge economy A combination of TA, TF, SPI, Evaluation, Socio-Technical Systems, Participative Ubiquitous, we just cant identify it Impossible

[Paper title] From 35 Countries we get many different perspectives on FTA Technocratic versus Radical Modernist versus Post-modernist Science versus Wisdom Influential versus Independent

[Paper title] Impact on Policy- and Decision-Making Key Advances 1.Significant advances in the variety and sophistication in methods (the Heinz competition) 2.A great variety of adaptation and fine-tuning of methods to fit particular contexts and clients “FTA is custom-made” 3.Substantial advances in thinking and understanding the policy- and decision-making process 4.Significant move towards evaluation

[Paper title] FTA is being put to work in a lot of new ways Innovation Urban development Business planning Brand and image development Cluster formation and operation Regulation Policy for the Elderly Occupational Health and Safety Transport and Energy Sustainability Teleworking Priority-setting Universities Futurewatch Self Rule PET

[Paper title] Future Perspectives? The ‘White Knight’ model is wearing thin Adaptive or/and Proactive? FTA as just one of many knowledge/information constituencies competing for space, resources attention, and perhaps a little love Influencing policy- and decision-making requires addressing the murky world of the relationship of knowledge to power Some generic rules of influence: speak the right language, in sort sentences, at the right time, raising issues which are only just ahead of the mainstream, and which, once revealed, are totally bloody obvious

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