Measuring Outcomes: Latinos and the 2008 Election Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 12 November 6, 2008

A Peaceful and Eloquent Transition of Power Each candidate (if not the audience in one case) hit the right notes “Yes we can” (Si se puede) now a part of the national political lexicon Origins – United Farm Workers and Caesar Chavez (1972) Obama used in his 2004 Senate race And throughout the 2008 race, particularly when reaching out to Latino audiences

Did Latinos Contribute to the Obama Coalition? Without question Latinos strongly supported Obama, as did other minority populations Had the electorate been made of up non- Hispanic whites, President-elect McCain would be preparing for the transition Of course, national data only tell small part of the story

2008 Vote, By Race/Ethnicity Obama %McCain % (Non-Hispanic) White 4355 Latino6731 African American954 Asian American6235 Source: CNN exit polls

Race/Ethnic Group Share of CNN Exit Poll Non Hispanic White74% Latino9% African American13% Asian American2% Other3% Note – these probably do not represent the race/ethnic group shares of actual electorate

What Don’t We Know About the National Latino Electorate? Latino share of the vote and total number of Latino voters Total electorate up 120 million ballots counted so far Total could reach 133 million / 62.5 percent of eligible adults 2004 – million voters / 60.3 percent turnout Turnout, nationally and in the states People will extrapolate from exit poll share (9 percent) Hard data on number of Latino voters will be available next summer (from the Current Population Survey)

What Can We Learn from the Obama Campaign? Truly a campaign on the cutting edge Use of new technologies To disseminate information To recruit volunteers Most importantly, to raise money Top-down, but decentralized Race/ethnicity was not a central message (while being a defining symbol) Likely destruction of public funding for future presidential races

Obama Campaign Lessons for Latino Outreach – Less Clear Until we know about Latino turnout, Can’t judge whether Obama mobilized Latinos who would not otherwise have participated Can’t get precise measures of influence The Obama campaign stuck to the “battleground” playbook which reduces Latino mobilization Promise of $20 million for Latino mobilization may have been met Clearly spent money on ads in battleground states (relied on Spanish) $20 million is a lot, but as share of total campaign spending may be less than Kerry/party/527 Latino outreach in 2004

And the McCain Campaign? Ultimately, McCain had a difficult road Low Bush popularity Ambivalent support from Republican base before Palin nomination (and elites after) National economic collapse Significant gains in Democratic registration McCain could not find a message that resonated with independent voters Except for post-Palin bump, he never controlled the debate

McCain Latino Outreach Strategy Poor Campaign focus on turning out the Republican base, which doesn’t include Latinos, rather than mobilizing new voters Some targeted advertising, but no comprehensive Latino outreach strategy Inability to tap potential strength with Latino community – immigration – for fear of alienating the Republican base Ultimately, a reprise of Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign

Latino Vote, by State 2008 –1 Obama %McCain % National6731 Arizona (16%)5641 California (18%)7423 Colorado (19%)6038 Florida (14%)5742 Illinois (7%)7227 Source: CNN exit poll Be cautious of these numbers

Latino Vote, by State 2008 –2 Obama %McCain % Nevada (15%)7622 New Jersey (9%)7821 New Mexico (41%)6930 New York (6%)NoData Pennsylvania (4%)7228 Texas (20%)6335 Virginia (5%)6534 Be cautious of these numbersSource: CNN exit poll

While Being Cautious, What Can We Learn from the Exit Polls? 1. Assertions of Latino move to the Republicans should disappear Variation across states remain Native-son effect also remains Changes in Florida perhaps most interesting, must include some Cuban American support for Obama 2. Assertions that Latinos will not support Black candidates also unsupported

Latinos and Other Races – Federal Offices Texas Senate Race John Cornyn (R- incumbent) 55 percent vs. Rick Noriega (D) 43 percent Latino vote – Cornyn 36 percent / Noriega 61 percent African American vote – Cornyn 8 percent / Noriega 89 percent U.S. Congress NM 3 – Ben Lujan (D) – 57 percent vs. Daniel East (R) – 30 percent Three South Florida Congressional races – All Latino incumbents (Republicans) won Louisiana 2 – Helena Moreno (D) – 43 percent vs. William Jefferson (D – incumbent) – 57 percent

Latinos and Other State Races California Proposition 11 – “Voters First Act” Yes – 51 percentNo – 49 percent Governor has declared victory Colorado Amendment 46 – “Colorado Civil Rights Initiative” Yes – 50 percentNo – 50 percent Not called Arizona Proposition 202 – Identity theft Yes – 41 percentNo – 59 percent No exit poll (no data on Latino vote) on these initiatives

Of Course, Now the Real Work Begins Evidence is that Obama transition team is ready for this responsibility Others in similar position have not been Demands will come from all quarters, including demands to ensure that the Obama administration is diverse on multiple measures Latinos will seek senior positions in the administration Bill Richardson The Obama campaign did not have an obvious cadre of Latino leaders who would move to cabinet posts Most “national” Latino leaders supported Sen. Clinton, at least initially

For Next Week We’ll seek to measure Latino influence in national and state races And assess the opportunities Latinos will have to shape policy outcomes in the Obama administration