UPS Meteorology - AMDAR Forecasting Aid – WVSS Data −Fog −Winter Precipitation Types Diagnostic Aid/Case Studies −Document Events −Develop New Forecast Techniques

Aircraft N411UP WVSS-II installation pictures at Goodrich during “C” check in May System Electronics Box (SEB) (View looking outboard) Air Sampler (View looking outboard) Air Sampler (View looking inboard)

Fog Forecasting -Moisture Increasing with Height -Inversion/Light Winds

Fog Forecasting 3 hours later… 0812z RVR z RVR

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 Moisture decreasing with height Favors shallow ground fog

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 AC#362 TYS->SDF starting at 29-Mar :47:00 with 85 obs descent sounding ending at 29-Mar :25:00 S F HHMM lat/lon Alt wd/ws t / td ( RH ) code / °/ /-1.10 (48.9%) / °/ / °/ /-0.20 (47.9%) / °/ /0.000 (45.0%) / °/ /0.200 (43.5%) / °/ /0.700 (42.8%) / °/ /0.800 (41.1%) / °/ /4.700 (62.9%) / °/ /5.500 (68.9%) 5730 The First Descent report at 0425z confirmed the model forecasts of a sharp decrease in moisture with height. Furthermore, there was a 3C inversion with 18 knots of wind, indicating still mixy conditions, helping to mix the drier air down to the surface.

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 Earlier in the day rain had occurred (0.34”), followed by clearing late in the day. Using the UPS Fog Forecasting method, the Crossover temperature was 8.3C, and with expected clear skies, calm winds, and a forecast low temperature of 4C, fog was of some concern. Soil temperatures were on the warm side (9C), and BUFKIT ETA output showed good dry advection just off the surface until about 04z, followed by decoupling and possible fog conditions by around 07z. Based on the model forecast of moisture decreasing with height, UPS meteorologists forecast ground fog with no operational impact at SDF where, due to runway construction, visibility below 3 miles would have caused significant delays to our Next Day Air inbounds.

Fog Forecasting – SDF 29 Mar 05 LOU (Louisville Bowman Field) did report ¼ mile in ground fog, which was patchy across the city, especially in low-lying locations. SDF never dropped below a sector visibility of 2 ½ miles. SDF KT 7SM MIFG CLR 08/07 A2978 REMRK A02VIS W 2 1/2 SLP084 T SDF KT 6SM MIFG CLR 07/07 A2979 REMRK AO2 SLP087 T SDF KT 4SM BR CLR 05/04 A2979 REMRK AO2 SLP090 T SDF KT 5SM BR CLR 06/06 A2981 REMRK AO2 SLP096 T SDF KT 6SM BR CLR 05/04 A2982 REMRK AO2 SLP100 T

Winter Precipitation Types SDF Feb 2003

RAIN

KSDF Z 06015KT 2 1/2SM RA BR OVC013 01/M01 A3001 RMK AO2 RAB30

METAR KSDF Z 05009G17KT 5SM -PL BR OVC020 M01/M04 A3009 RMK AO2 FZDZE55PLB55 SLP192 P0001 T = FZRA, FZDZ, PL

KSDF Z 04009KT 4SM -PL BR OVC018 M03/M04 A3006= KSDF Z 04010KT 6SM -PL BR OVC020 M02/M04 A3007= ICE PELLETS

Diagnostic Aid/Case Studies −Document Events What happened? Why did it happen? −Develop New Forecast Techniques Were there clues in the model output? If so, develop forecast techniques to predict the next event.

SVR Turbulence Incident 2315z 11Nov02 Approximately 40 nm East of Louisville. FL Continuous moderate, occasional severe. Diverted for maintenance inspection. Water vapor aircraft with good data. AIRMET for moderate turbulence FL due to windshear in vicinity of upper level jet stream.

METAR KSDF Z 33012KT 10SM SCT250 11/06 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP182 T = KLOU Z 34008KT 10SM CLR 11/03 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP183 T =

Mod-SVR Turbulence

P_alt mb t/td w_dir/w_spd Bng/Rng from gnd pt (ft) (°C) (kts) (nm) / °/031 89°/ UTC / °/032 91°/ UTC / °/035 93°/ UTC / °/043 96°/ UTC / °/050 98°/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC / °/ °/ UTC

SDF Brief Ice Pellet Event 0905Z 16 Nov 00 A brief Ice pellet event affected UPS operations between Z on 16Nov00. No deicing was needed as the intensity was very light and the temperatures were above freezing so that it melted. KSDF METAR Z 19010KT 10SM FEW055 SCT065 BKN085 06/01 A2992 RMK AO2 RAB05E35 PLB05E17 SLP134 P0000 T = KSDF METAR Z 16005KT 10SM FEW080 OVC120 04/M01 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143 T = KSDF METAR Z 16006KT 10SM BKN120 04/M01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP151 T =

Model Output: -RA FOUM65 KWNO OUTPUT FROM NGM 00Z NOV TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 SDF//

SDF ESC NGM MOS GUIDANCE 11/16/ UTC DAY /NOV 16 /NOV 17 /NOV 18 HOUR MX/MN TEMP DEWPT CLDS SC BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK CL CL CL CL SC WDIR WSPD POP POP QPF 0/ 1/ 1/1 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 TSV06 0/ 4 3/ 4 4/ 4 3/ 0 1/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 0 0/ 5 TSV12 1/ 7 5/ 4 1/ 1 0/ 0 PTYPE R R R R R R R R R S S S S S S POZP POSN SNOW 0/ 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/ 0/1 0/ 0/0 CIG VIS OBVIS N N N N N N N N N N N N N

However, a Water Vapor Descent report showed a deep layer of dry air with wetbulb temperatures below 0C.

A few hours later at 0913Z, a Water Vapor Ascent report showed that between mb the wetbulb temperature was still below freezing.

ILN (Wilmington, Ohio) 12Z Raob, which shows a very similar temperature and moisture structure.

Santa Ana Winds

Pressure Gradient, No Wave Strongest winds Below the Inversion Cajon Pass Boundary Layer winds degrees

Jet Core West of ONT, Weak or no Santa Ana event

Jet Core East of ONT, Moderate to Strong Santa Ana event Mountain Wave

BUR ONT PHX Jet Tropopause Jet Stream Front Mountain Level – 10,000 Ft Ground Level

Mountain Wave Strongest Wind in and near Stable Layer

ONT Santa Ana Winds G78KT