Economic Development Perspectives of the area of the Elbe/Oder Chamber Union (KEO) Dr. Silvia Stiller Brussels 25th June 2013

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 2 Agenda ▪ Demographic and economic perspectives ▪ Trade and Transportation ▪ Fields of action

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 3 KEO: 6 Polish voivodships, 7 German Federal States, region of Lüneburg, 2 Czech districts (kray), Prague

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 4 KEO in Europe  37.6 m inhabitants (EU: m): 7,5 % of EU population  inhabitants per km² (EU: per km²)  Unemployment rate 9.8 % (EU: 9.6 %)  Employment rate 50.6 % (EU: 53.5 %)  GDP: 720 Mrd. : 5,7 of EU GDP  GDP per capita 19,028 Euro (EU: 25,100 Euro) (as of 2008)

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) KEO in Europe: Cross border integration area 5

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 6 Sectoral structure  Large dispairites within the KEO region  different specialisation patterns: trade potential  For the future a process of structural convergences can be expected; i.e. structural patterns become more similar  Overall trend: Knowledge based structural change  Expansion of service sectors, but services and industries are closely related

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 7 Sectoral structure

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 8 Sectoral structure

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Preconditions for structural change  Crucial role of qualified person  Investments in research and development as driving forces for structural change and economic growth  Different starting points as to innovation potential 9

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Innovation potential 10

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 11 Income  large income gaps per person between the regions of KEO  German regions and Praha have highest income per capita  Relatively low per capita income in Polish regions  Catching up processes which are expected to go on in the future  But: spatial polarisation, especially between cities and rural areas, might be fostered

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Per capita income 12

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Catching up process, reduction of income disparities 13

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 14 Demographic perspectives 2030  overall European trend: ageing and shrinking population  population decline by 6.4% until 2030 in KEO region  rural areas lose population  cities are attractive to immigrants  population decrease influences labour supply and economic potential

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 15 Population forecast until 2030*

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Trade and transportation  Trade between Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic has developed very dynamically during last decades  GDP growth as driving force for cross border trade  Essential factor: cross border infrastructure and transaction  Trade volume as crucial determinant for traffic in KEO region; trade form KEO members will increase and impact on traffic; high demand 16

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Trade expansion 17

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Trade and freight traffic, modal split

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Trade and freight traffic, modal split

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) 20  GDP rises in all three countries: In Poland by 93.8 %, Czech Republic 59.3 %, Germany 32.9 (HWWI forecast)  Export growth for Poland and the Czech Republic of % or else % Export growth for Germany of 92.7 % Ports as centres of international trade Trade perspectives 2030

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Port locations in the KEO 21

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Port locations  Hamburg harbour is one of the biggest European ports and cargo handling develops – like in other regions - very dynamically  Port of Gdansk, outside the region, also trade centre for KEO members 22

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Ports and road network 23

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Port locations and accessibilty: Hinterland connections and transport routes 24  hinterland connections are competition factors  infrastructural bottlenecks in the hinterland  perspectives of intermodal traffic  heterogenous density of transport routes  regional variation of navigability of inland waterways

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Fields of action  Supporting knowledge-based structural change  Invesments in research and development, education  Cross-border networ  Ongoing integration of KEO in cross-border international division of labour 25

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Fields of action 26 Crucial factors for more intense integration and higher benefits of cross-border relationships  Reduction of transaction cost  Expanding transport infrastructure; specific needs of urban centres  Strengthen potentials of inland waterway transport

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Commissioned by:With kind support of: 5

Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) Contact Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) Dr. Silvia Stiller Dr. Jan Wedemeier 28