THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT STATE AND OUTLOOK June 2015 – SOER 2015 launch event Helsinki

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The European Environment Agency The EEA is an EU agency that operates at the interface of science and policy. With a network of more than 300 institutions in 39 European countries, the EEA provides timely, reliable and relevant information to support sustainable development. EEA work is targeted at EU institutions, EEA member countries, civil society and the general public.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015) A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks. SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7th EAP. SOER 2015 Synthesis report SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends 11 briefings Global megatrends 25 briefings European briefings 9 briefings Cross-country comparisons 39+3 briefings Countries and regions

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The policy context Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme 2014–2018

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society. ’ Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Key messages from SOER 2015 Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Assessing past trends and future outlooks The Synthesis report addresses the three thematic priority objectives of the 7 th EAP: 1.Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital 2.Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy 3.Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Two overall patterns emerge: Resource efficiency improvements have been notable but have not translated into increased ecosystem and social resilience The long-term outlook is often less positive than recent trends © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Thematic priority objective 1: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity  Land use and soil functions No target Ecological status of freshwater bodies  Water quality and nutrient loading  Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts  Marine and coastal biodiversity  Climate change impacts on ecosystems No target Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    20+ years outlook

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Thematic priority objective 2: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Material resource efficiency and material use No target Waste management  Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation  /  Energy consumption and fossil fuel use  Transport demand and related environmental impacts  Industrial pollution to air, soil and water  Water use and water quantity stress  Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    20+ years outlook

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Thematic priority objective 3: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Water pollution and related environmental health risks  /  Air pollution and related environmental health risks  Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)  Urban systems and grey infrastructure No target Climate change and related environmental health risks No target Chemicals and related environmental health risks  /  Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    20+ years outlook /

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Past (5–10) year trends Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate 20+ years outlook /

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Understanding past trends and future outlooks Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects: The changing global context Competition for resources Pressures from outside Europe Planetary boundaries Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges Complexity Uncertainty Environmental, social and economic interdependencies © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Understanding past trends and future outlooks: Natural capital Long time-lags between reduced pressures and positive changes Pressures on ecosystems remain considerable External trends can counteract the positive effects of local efforts © Alex Dumitrescu, Environment & Me /EEA Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Understanding past trends and future outlooks: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Production-consumption systems support livelihoods, creating lock-ins Globalisation of production and consumption constrains EU influence More efficient production lowers costs, incentivising more consumption © Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Understanding past trends and future outlooks: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Impacts resulting from climate change are expected to worsen Changing exposures, urbanisation and ageing increase vulnerability Good urban design delivers benefits to health and well-being © Alexander Goranov, Environment & Me /EEA Sources: Eurostat, Gisco - Urban Audit 2012; EEA, AirBase and Indicator CSI004.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT The global population is expected to grow 43% by 2050, with Africa’s population increasing especially fast Source: UN World population prospects: The 2012 revision. World Population projection trends, 1950  2100

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT World resource use is expected to at least double in the next three decades © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA Souce: SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database Edition. Available at:

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Projections of climate change impacts are increasingly worrying © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Global temperature increases of 4 ⁰ C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010–2109 Source: IPCC, 2014.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Looking ahead: Systemic challenges require systemic solutions Not just incremental efficiency gains but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, urban, finance and fiscal systems through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking. Source: Tesla

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Energy efficiency has increased, but we are far from a low- carbon economy Source: EEA (CSI 028)

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materials

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Cars are more efficient but overall fuel consumption and emissions have increased Source: Tesla

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Achieving the 2050 vision depends on action today: Fostering innovation Technological, economic and social innovations can support long-term transitions to a green economy Creating a green economy requires upscaling niche innovations Publicly funded research has fostered many of the most important and commercially successful innovations Europe should not be afraid of leading the world on environmental standards: investments and innovation can boost prosperity today © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Eco-industries have prospered despite the recession in Europe © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Eco-industry value added Eco-industry employment Total EU GDP Total EU employment Source: Eurostat, 2014.

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Environmental policy is a driver of innovation, not a deterrent © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Source: OECD Patent applications with European coverage (1978=100, 3-yr moving average)

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Europe’s environmental leadership can set standards globally © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Adoption of the EU's Euro emissions standards for cars and vans in Asian countries, 1995–2025 Source: Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities, 2011

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Innovation in urban systems: green infrastructure © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA Air trees, MadridUrban forest, Milan

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Innovative financing tool: green bonds Green bonds – a hybrid investment tool for financing transitions by combining public and private contributions © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

COUNTRY COMPARISONS GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SYNTHESIS REPORT Looking ahead: Living well within the limits of the planet by 2050 Achieving the 2050 vision is possible but it depends on our actions and investments today. Systemic change must deliver decent employment, prosperity and equity, as well as respecting environmental limits. SOER 2015 illustrates the success of European policy. We should be confident in entering a new stage of environmental governance. The EEA’s growing knowledge base and partnerships can provide valuable inputs to EPSC work © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Explore SOER 2015 online: eea.europa.eu/soer

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