Jacek Szlachta Making Europe Open and Polycentric. Vision and Scenarios for the European Territory towards 2050 (ET 2050) Territorial Scenarios and Visions for Central Europe, Warsaw, 29 October 2014

From Project Specifications: The 31 countries in the ESPON Monitoring Committee, have decided a vision-building process for the Europen territory with 2050 as time horizon that involves relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level. ET2050 Goal

ET2050 Consortium

Information about ET 2050 project Two horizons 2030 and 2050 Baseline scenario and three territorial scenarios: (A) market based growth favouring large metropoles; (B) Public policies promoting secondary city networks and (C) Local and European initiatives promoting small cities and less development regions For CEE countries the most promising scenario B

Adressing panel key questions - What are the visions and scenarios for development of European Union and in the Central and Eastern Europe macro-region? – Is it still reasonable to treat the CEE area as a single macro-region?

GDP Growth (Baseline) by MASST3 GDP a.a. : 1,89 % 45 regions bellow 1,00 %

Employment by MASST3

Population Change by MULTIPOLES Population : from 514 to 530 mln inh.

A European Territorial Strategy A : Promotion of Global Cities

B European Territorial Strategy B: Promotion of Networks of Cities

C European Territorial Strategy C: Promotion of Rural and Peripheral Regions

How Europe will develop if the current policies are not changed (1) Overall stability Growing internal imbalances Ageing becoming a common trend Increasing and more diversified migration Regional convergence turning into divergence Increasing regional disparities Slow reduction of unemployment and pressure on salaries

How Europe will develop if the current policies are not changed (2) New global trade patterns Expanding tourism Different tendencies of transport development at local, regional, European and transcontinental scale Decreasing energy and carbon intensity Increasing urbanization Climate change hitting territories asymmetrically

Recommendations for the future Policy aims for a long term development of Europe are: openness and polycentricity. How to make it: Connecting Europe Globally Promoting co-development with neighbouring countries Unleashing regional diversity and endogenous development Supporting a balanced urban structure Managing natural resources sustainability

Future related territorial challenges for CEE countries and regions Trap of middle income countries is already there End of growing cohesion after economic crises of 2008 Growing internal disparities within CEE countries Eastern border as external EU border for coming decades with limited relations Relatively decreasing accessibility compared with Western and Northern Europe Heavy outmigration and its consequences

Reports are available at: (working documents)