Scenario-building as a communication tool Skryhan Hanna Krasnoyarsk, February, 15 – February, 22, 2014

Changes are not new

The Anthropocene Source:

What will the future bring? Observations

The problem studying with the future We can’t observe it, but … We know that it’ll be different (probably) We cannot use traditional scientific methods We need a set of tools to tackle the unknowns and uncertainties of the future

The way we address ‘futures‘ in complex systems depends on: (a) how well we understand a system‘s complexity / causalities; (b) how uncertain we are about future developments of key drivers Source: Zurek, M., Henrichs, T., Linking scenarios across geographical scales in international environmental assessments. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

Scenario “Scenario (outcome) – a plausible image of the future, based on the qualitative or quantitative interpretation of a set of scenario assumptions, which can be presented as narrative storylines or quantitative figures and maps (models)” (Metzger et al., 2010) Scenarios are not predictions!

Scenarios and projections Scenarios as tools to – …explore the future, – …assess the effects of future (environmental, social) change, – …describe drivers of change – social, economic, policy, technology, governance, – …assess policy options in a context, – …provide a platform for stakeholder discussion, – …deal with uncertainty, – …connect descriptions of the future to the present through a series of causal links, – …etc.

We can influence the future!

Types of scenarios

Advantages and disadvantages Critic of Explanatory scenarios : the constraints of the present are likely to lead to conservative scenarios, in that the progress that could be reached is underestimated and new options are not taken into consideration

Scenario development Qualitative descriptions of the range and role of different land use change drivers Quantitative assessments of the total area requirement (quantity) of each land use type, as a function of changes in the relevant drivers for each scenario Spatial allocation rules to locate the land use quantities in geographic space across Europe

Scenario limitations

Development of explanatory scenarios Define the problem Define driving forces Select scenario axis Develop scenarios Use scenario in policy

Driving forces: ESTEP Environmental, Social, Technological, Economic, Political Define driving forces 1) Identifying driving forces / impact factors (for each ESTEP group) 2) Assess of significance and likelihood of each impact factor (for each ESTEP group) 3) Distribute impact factors on significance and possibility (regards to whole problem) 4) Identifying the most important impact factors Select scenario axis

Develop scenarios Development of explanatory scenarios

JazzSymphony ENERGY SECURITY Higher energy production Greater trading and diversity of international fossil energy suppliers Wider diversity of energy resource types „Has government-promoted investment in infrastructure ENERGY QUITY On average, energy equity progresses better More people are able to afford more energy because the global market leads to higher GDP growth Energy equity is less because there are inevitably interventions restricting GDP growth Funds directed into low-carbon initiatives would actually start diverting funds from other government priorities such as health care and other programmes Financial resources are not limitless Governments have to set spending priorities Wise choice of policies as identified in the WEC World Energy Trilemma Report could avoid this drop, as countries strive to score well on the WEC’s trilemma index Develop scenarios

JazzSymphony ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Emissions don’t drop until after 2040 Performance improves markedly if a bottom up carbon market develops early in the scenario, but the higher GDP growth still means higher emissions Puts more emphasis on adaptation Scores well on environmental impact mitigation particularly CO2 emission reduction, with emissions dropping after 2020 Externalities are more effectively internalised: this is primarily because countries adopt a range of mechanisms to meet treaty obligations on CO2 Higher carbon prices would achieve higher emission reduction The market instrument emission trading is assumed as the leading mechanism for meeting CO2 emission obligations in the second part of the scenario period Develop scenarios

Development of scenario Problem: Transportation system in Krasnoyarsk Forecasting period: Step 1-2: Work in small groups – 30 min – Step 1. Identifying driving forces / impact factors influencing in present and future – Step 2. Assess of significance and likelihood of each impact factor (for each ESTEP group). Fill in the tables Step 3. Distribution of driving forces for whole problems – 15 min – Distribute impact factors – Choose the most important factors Step 4. Choosing and naming of scenario axis – 15 min Step 5. Discussion and naming of scenarios – 15 min

High importance Low importance Low influencing High influencing Development of scenario Problem: Transportation system in Krasnoyarsk Forecasting period: