MIT Communications Futures Program Bi-annual meeting, January 22-23, 2008 San Jose, CA The Future of TV – What’s the Role of P2P? Introduction – Natalie Klym, MIT Community Networking – Marie José Montpetit, Motorola Community PVR – Henry Holtzman, MIT

Enhancement & extension of traditional platforms New delivery platforms New end-user devices New content types Several key trends are disrupting the traditional TV industry 2

A larger number of more complex and interconnected value chains now comprise the video landscape Cable TV networks Online video producers Cell phone PC TV PDA Wireless networks Satellite Licensed spectrum (OTA) Private Internet Public Internet Cable VOD Linear DVD player Big 4 networks Delivery platforms Content providers End user devices Film studios DVR STB 3 Postal service (DVD)

Services can be broken down into 2 high-level categories 4 Wireless networks Satellite TV Licensed spectrum (OTA) Private Internet Public Internet Cable TV VOD Linear Carrier services “Closed” Acquired content (short tail) Guaranteed connection To the TV (lean back) (except wireless) Online services “Open” “Any” content (long-short tail) “Best-effort” connection To the PC (lean forward) (some bridges to TV)

For many users, online video complements carrier services But for certain users, it is becoming a substitute For carriers who also function as ISPs, substitution scenario is known as the “over the top” threat Services both complement and compete with one another 5

Live TV still dominates… how and when will this change? 6 Percent of US TV Households M Total Satellite 27% Cable 58% OTA 15% Most people in the U.S. still watch traditional TV Worldwide IPTV subscribers 2007 Satellite 27% 8.3M Total Europe60% Asia26% USA5% Highest growth rate is in Europe US Broadband subscribers in M+ broadband subscribers −32.6M cable −27.5M DSL 66% of home BB users consume online video (vs 31% of dial-up users) (16% is traditional TV content, 25% is YouTube) −76% of year olds −57% of year olds −46% of year olds −39% of 65 + year olds US mobile TV subscribers % of mobile subscribers watched video on their mobile phones = 8M mobile TV viewers (36% carriers’ content, 64% sent by peers) (56% digital)

User behaviors are redefining the video value proposition It’s what you can do with content once you get it that’s important –Time shifting –Screen shifting –Place shifting –Sharing/redistributing –Enter social networking As video services evolve, the TV experience is being redefined 7

Community Networking: Getting P2P out of Prison Marie José Montpetit Distinguished Member of the Technical Staff Motorola Community PVR Henry Holtzman Research Scientist MIT Media Lab How does P2P enable social networking in the TV experience? 8