nEDM Construction Project Cost & Schedule Philosophy Vince Cianciolo, ORNL Physics Division Internal Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 2 Outline WBS high level summary Development of cost estimate –Estimate developed for the baseline design discussed by Jan Boissevain –Each project element defined by: Sample WBS dictionary entry Risk-based contingency analysis Sample cost sheet Development of schedule estimate Details on major items to be given by responsible collaborators in following talks

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 3 WBS Overview Over 120 elements in WBS structure Elements organized in 14 major divisions:

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 4 WBS Overview, cont. These were further broken down into major sub-tasks: $FY05

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 5 WBS Overview, cont. $FY05

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 6 WBS Application Generally the cost and schedule estimates were developed one level deeper: –Design item Cost/effort/time required to produce shop drawings. –Procure item Cost/effort/time required to purchase item, including, e.g., development of procurement spec, delivery time. –Install item Cost/effort/time required to integrate them into next larger item, including stand-alone testing and in-field modifications. Each element defined in a WBS dictionary entry –Description –Basis for estimate Cost estimates for each element documented in individual cost sheets –Material, labor, overheads included Required physicist effort estimated, but costs not assigned to project –Risk-based contingency calculation

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 7 Sample WBS Dictionary Entry

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 8 Typical Rate Assumptions LaboratoryUniversity Material13%0% Labor100%50% Engineer$79 Technician (High)$54 Technician (Low)$40 Overhead Rates Hourly Labor Rates

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 9 Sample WBS Cost Sheet

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 10 Contingency Calculation Technical, cost, and schedule risk weights TechnicalCostScheduleRisk weight Material cost OR labor rateSame for all1 Design OR manufacturingMaterial cost AND labor rate2 Design AND manufacturing4 Technical, cost, and schedule risk factors TechnicalCostScheduleRisk factor Existing design and off-the-shelf hardwareOff-the-shelf or catalog item1% Minor modifications to an existing designVendor quote from established drawingsNo schedule impact on any other item2% Extensive modifications to an existing designVendor quote with some design sketches3% New design, nothing exoticIn-house estimate based on previous similar experienceDelays completion of non-critical path subsystem item 4% New design, different from established designs or existing technology In-house estimate for item with minimal experience but related to existing capabilities 6% New design, requires some R&D but does not advance the state-of-the-art In-house estimate for item with minimal experience and minimal in-house capability Delays completion of critical path subsystem item 8% New design, development of new technology which advances state-of-the-art Top-down estimate from analogous programs10% New design, way beyond the current state-of-the-artEngineering judgment15% Each item in the WBS is assigned three risk factors (F) and three risk weights (W). –State of design –Basis of cost estimate –Schedule criticality C = F i W i, where repeated indices imply summation. C = 2x15% + 1x10%+ 1x4% =44%

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005 V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics 11 Development of Project Schedule Durations estimated for each WBS element –Past experience –Vendor estimates Schedule contingency assigned –For most items the float estimate is given by the duration estimate and the cost contingency estimate. Elements entered into MSProject and linkage analysis performed. Gives a project schedule, including schedule contingency, unconstrained by (unknown) BA profile. Items well off the critical path are then delayed to backload the profile while still completing the project as soon as possible. –Gives proposed BA profile. –Allows escalation calculation (2.5% per year assumed).