Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Benson, AZ

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Are we in a recession?

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Inflation (CPI) Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research The Local Economy Is Cochise County in Recession? Benson?

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Retail Sales Growth Inflation Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Benson Retail Sales Tax Collections The Wal-Mart Effect

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Retail Sales Outlook Sales are at historical highs due primarily to Wal-Mart Slowdown is expected –Higher base –Gas prices –Inflation –Recessionary concerns

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth (Monthly) Inflation Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Benson Restaurant & Bar Sales Growth (Annual) Inflation Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Restaurant and Bar Sales Outlook Trend in recent years has been downward Nonessential spending cut from family budgets –Recessionary fears encourage families to cut spending –Inflationary pressures force families to cut spending

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Accommodation Sales Growth (Monthly) Inflation Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Benson Accommodation Sales Growth (Annual) Inflation Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Benson Accommodation/Restaurant & Bar Sales Growth (Annual) Inflation Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Accommodation Sales Outlook Expect slowdown, partly due to higher base Increased competition will put downward pressure on room rates Declining dollar will lure international tourism Gas prices will alter tourism patterns Fort Huachuca unaffected by general economy Recent trends appear to be downward

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Employment

Unemployment Rates * Jan-Apr only; seasonally adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Monthly Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Monthly Labor Force/Employment

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Monthly Nonfarm Job Growth Compared to same month previous year

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Nonfarm Job Growth By Industry 12 months ending April 2008

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Employment Outlook Continued slow job growth/job losses Rising unemployment

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Housing, Real Estate, and Commercial Construction

Cochise College Center for Economic Research New Home Construction SFR Permits

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Recent SFR Permit Activity Benson –Jan-Apr 08: 32 –2007 (Entire Year): 25 Cochise County –Jan-Mar 08: 121 –Jan-Mar 07: 125

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Existing Home Sales Benson homes listed on Tucson Area MLS (TAMLS) and Southeast Arizona MLS (SAMLS) SAMLS accounts for 25% of market Active listings show little difference between Benson homes on TAMLS and SAMLS –Jun 08 Median Price (TAMLS): $188,500 –Jun 08 Median Price (SAMLS): $186,000 –Difference = 1.3%

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Existing Home Sales (Growth) * Jan-Apr only; compared to same period the year prior

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Median Home Price * Jan-Apr only; compared to same period the year prior

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Housing Market Outlook New home market may have bottomed out in 2007 Existing home market has not yet hit bottom Possible return to normal growth conditions in 2008/2009

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Commercial Construction (Benson)

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Commercial Construction Outlook Expect slowdown Current projects will be completed Recession fears will cause firms to delay new projects

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Conclusion Nationally –Slowed economic growth –Rising unemployment –Inflation/stagflation Locally –Slowdown of sales across categories –Slowed job growth/job losses and rising unemployment –Partial recovery of new home market –Existing home market will hit bottom in 2008, recover in 2009

Cochise College Center for Economic Research