Sharon Wilhelm Interim Associate Vice President

High School Graduates

K-12 School Enrollment is declining. Between , 69% of school districts declined. Age structure of K- 12 students is older. Births in Wisconsin were low in 1990s and early 2000s.

Summary Points  Peak numbers 2008, then projected decline  Similar trends for males and females overall  Similar for different race/ethnic groups, except Hispanics who will see substantial increase  Changing race/ethnic make-up of population under 18 will likely introduce new challenges and opportunities Wisconsin’s Public School Enrollment: Past, Present, Future

High School Graduates going on to Higher Education

Wisconsin HS Graduates66,38168,585 Enrolled in Higher Education58.2%60.2% Enrolled in Wisconsin:47.5%49.0% UW System33.0%32.5% Four-Year Institutions28.0% UW Colleges5.0%4.6% Private Wisconsin6.2%6.7% Public Two-Year (WTCS)8.4%9.9% Enrolled Out-of-State10.7%11.1% Not Enrolled in Higher Education41.8%39.8%

WIMNILINIAMI High School Graduates 66,38164,382136,44362,55736,509115,822 Enrolled in Higher Education 58.2%62.3%54.3%55.6%60.9%54.5%

Fall 1997Fall 2006Fall 2007 Change from Previous Year Change from 1997 HC% HCHC% HCHC% HCHC% HCHC% HC Top Quart11, , , % % 2 nd Quart8, , , %19515% Top Half19, , , %695% 3 rd Quart3, , , %86166% 4 th Quart , %37926% Total*23,673100%24,276100%24,982100%706100%1,309100% *Excludes students who did not have a high school rank.

HS Rank Fall 2005Fall 2006Fall 2007 All New Freshmen % Need Remedial All New Freshmen % Need Remedial All New Freshmen % Need Remedial Top Quart 11,4267.6%10,9437.1%11,1258.0% 2 nd Quart 8, %8, %8, % 3 rd Quart 4, %4, %4, % 4 th Quart 1, % %1, % Total* 25, %24, %24, %

Source of Wisconsin high school graduates projections: UW-Madison Applied Population Laboratory, 2008

Access Under Different Enrollment Scenarios 2006 Current Access 2015 Scenario #1 Scenario #2 WI High School Graduates 68,58562,464 WI Immediate New Freshmen 22,32323,00624,986 Access Rate 32.5%36.8%40.0% WI Immediate New Freshmen by HS Rank Pct by HS RankAccess Rate Top Quartile 45%58.6%66.3%72.0% 2 nd Quartile 34%44.9%50.8%55.2% 3 rd Quartile 17%22.3%25.2%27.4% Bottom Quartile 3%4.4%5.0%5.4% All 100%32.5%36.8%40.0% Current access rate: 32.5% Scenario #1: New freshmen at 2007 level Scenario #2: Increase access rate to 40% Assumes no change in admissions selectivity

Potential to serve older adult populations

WIMNIAILINMI # Enrolled % of All UG Public 4-Year15,81012%16%8%16%21%16% Public Two-Year54,13947%35%27%45%51%40% UW Colleges2,47920% WTCS51,66050% Private13,44529%16%23%21%27%42% All Sectors83,39429%24%21%33%29%30% Data source: IPEDS, Fall 2005

First to Second Year Retention Rates at Institution Where Started Six-Year Graduation Rate at Any UW Institution Aged 25 and Over (3 year avg.) 64.6%30.1% Total79.2%64.8%