UB Clean Air Program Status of Programme Activities Report to the National Committee on Coordination, Management, and Oversight of Activities of Government Agencies with regard to the Implementation of the Government Policy on Air Pollution Reduction (NCC) NCC Meeting, June 23, 2009 Gailius J. Draugelis, Senior Energy Specialist, World Bank Dr. Sereeter Lodoysamba, Professor, National University of Mongolia

1 Outline UB Clean Air Investment Project Preparation Heating in Poor, Peri-Urban Ger Areas of Ulaanbaatar Technical Assistance Report Air Monitoring and Health Impact Baseline Study & Discussion Paper Donor Coordination

2 2 Ulaanbaatar Clean Air Project (under preparation) UBCAP Concept endorsed 12/2008 by NCC. MOF confirms NCC is counterpart, accepts UBCAP concept letter 01/2009 $500,000 ADB TA Project Identified 9/2009 funds available UBCAP Operations Plan preparation & demonstration $12 million IDA credit 2 nd half CY 2011 (funds diverted for budget support) Co-financing is needed Next Steps: NCC to establish project implementation unit for ADB TA project WB & ADB launch ADB TA winter , 18 month project

3 3 UBCAP Clean Heating Appliance Product Development Spot Check Inform PIU System developed under ADB TA Free stove design assistance Products are labeled Micro/SME credit from commercial banks for scale up Manufacturer pays certification

4 4 UBCAP Clean Heating Appliance Subsidy Mechanism System developed under ADB TA Vouchers paid by project Verification System with NGO Subsidy & Administrative costs paid by project Public awareness: Mass Media, Product Marketing, Community-level (schools, clinics) PIU establishes list PIU Procures Vouchers NGO Distributes Vouchers & Maintains list Household Buys Stove with Voucher Voucher submitted to NGO by Seller NGO verifies stove installation NGO repurchases old stove NGO informs PIU PIU pays Seller

5 5 Heating in Poor Peri Urban Ger Areas of Ulaanbaatar Draft Report to NCC 12/08 Policy recommendations for clean, affordable heating in Ger areas 1000 HH Survey Affordability Attitudes Fuel consumption Heating market Stove replacement program design Stove-fuel testing protocol International experience Next step Disseminate glossy version with NCC 07/2009 Mongolia Heating in Poor, Peri-urban Ger Areas of Ulaanbaatar Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program Sustainable Development Department East Asia and Pacific Region The World Bank

6 6 Air Monitoring and Health Impact Baseline Study Air Quality (PM) Baseline Health Impact Baseline Cost-benefit analysis Discussion Paper 6/2009 Final Paper 10/2009 Next Step: Comments 7/6/2009 Disseminate 7/2009 Final Report 10/2009 Air Pollution in Ulaanbaatar Proposed assessment of current situation and effects of abatement measures Discussion Paper Version for Comment: June 20, 2009 Sustainable Development Series: Discussion Paper Sustainable Development Department East Asia and Pacific Region The World Bank

7 7 AMHIB Discussion Paper Results DP Data Final Report Data July 08 – June 09 8 AMHIB Stations DP Data UB is among most polluted PM cities 8 AMHIB Stations

8 8 AMHIB Discussion Paper Results Summary of PM measurements at the NUM station, (monthly averages) (Lodoysamba et.al., 2008).

9 9 AMHIB Discussion Paper Results

10 AMHIB Discussion Paper Results Modeled Annual Avg. PM 10, 2007

11 UB Air Pollution & International Standards PM 2.5 PM 10 PM 2.5 PM 10 Annual Average 24 Hour Daily Average Annual Average 24 Hour Daily Average Hourly average Max. hourly Measured PM concentrations in UB (all numbers in µg/m 3 ) November 17-22, 2008 max. 350 max Guidelines, Standards, Limit values (all numbers in µg/m 3 ) Mongolian AQS WHO Guidelines (2005) Notes WHO Interim Targets 1/ 7 days above 35 per year is allowed. IT / 35 days above 50 per IT year is allowed. IT / To be met by 2010 USEPA Air Quality Standards (2006) / -1504/ To be met by 2020 EU Limit Values25 3/ / 20 4/

12 Discussion Paper Results Winter pollution has high 50% of PM concentrations Corresponds to ignition phase (cold start) and reloading of stoves ADB/WB TA will look at the ignition problem

How good does an abatement program need to be ? 13 Preliminary Estimates 50% emission reduction from Ger heating results in: about 33% reduction in PM 10 annual average concentrations about $19 - $38 m in avoided health damages annually

14 Donor Coordination Maintain dialogue bilaterally with as many donors as possible EBRD coordination on fuel-stove testing EBRD coordination on Operational Framework and UBCAP ADB coordination on ADB TA Proposal ($500,000) JICA coordination on AMHIB project & Discussion Paper Encourage NCC to take lead in coordination June 23 meeting Propose: At least semi-annual donor meetings, next one in November 2009 NCC include donor programs in its Action Plan, if acceptable