Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop for LAC Asuncion, Paraguay, 14-18, August, 2006 Integration of V&A Analysis by Vute Wangwacharakul

Outline Introduction Integration of results Cross sector and multi-sector integration Setting priorities Vulnerability Adaptation Examples Conclusions

Introduction Commitments Under Articles 4.1 and 12.1 Parties should develop and publish their national communications. Guidelines Parties should communicate to the COP a general description of programs containing measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, etc. (decision 17/CP.8)

Reporting Components The following categories of impacts/vulnerability are expected to be reported: agriculture, tourism, health, forests, water resources, infrastructure, rangeland, coastal regions, ecosystems and biodiversity, wildlife, fisheries and the economy.

Para. 34 of the Guidelines Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on their vulnerability to the impacts of, and their adaptation to, climate change in key vulnerable areas. Information should include key findings, and direct and indirect effects arising from climate change, allowing for an integrated analysis of the country’s vulnerability to climate change.

“an integrated analysis” Two possible interpretations Information provided in SNC should allow for communicating national vulnerability to climate change in “an integrated manner” Integrated analysis of V&A is encouraged, particularly in the key vulnerable areas We emphasize the second one

Integrated Assessment Integrated Assessment can be defined an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines in such a way that the whole set cause-effect interactions of a problem can be evaluated.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation, to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II)] Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WG II]

Why is Integration Important? Impacts do not happen in isolation Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively affect another Some sectors are affected directly and/or indirectly Sector linkages could reduce the extent of the impacts of climate change The issues addressed are dynamic in nature Integration is necessary for ranking vulnerabilities and adaptations

Main Types of Integration of Results Cross-sector integration Link related sectors (I-V-A in selected sectors; qualitative or quantitative) Multi-sector integration (System approach; quantitative) Economy or system wide models Integrated assessment models Economy-wide models (mathematic or econometric models)

Some Integrated Assessment Models IMAGE ICLIPS CLIMPACTS MIASMA AIM

Cross-sector models CC - water resources - agriculture CC - temperature - mosquitoes - health CC - temperature - heat wave - health CC - rainfall - flood/drought - agriculture etc. mostly quantitative

Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad. WEAP Evaluation Planning CROPWAT Regional irrigation CE Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT RES Crop water demand WATBAL Streamflow PET SCENARIOS GCM SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology

An Example: IAM in Cuba: Agriculture and water resources (considered demographic, technology, food consumption) Potato yield would be dropped and worsen by water problem and population Technology only marginally reduced the effects. Changing sowing date could be good adaptation measure for maize

Multi-sector Integration Modeling

IMAGE Model

Regional/National Economic Models Quantitative way to examine climate change market impacts throughout an economy Problem with non-market impacts Mostly macroeconomic models or general equilibrium models Require much data Complex and can be expensive Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

An Example of a Regional Model

Asia Integrated Model

A More “Simple” Approach Add up results sector by sector Limited by what is known within sectors Problem of how to integrate across multiple end points Impacts may be measured with different metrics Need to account for many sectors Does not capture sectoral interactions

Estimates of Damages for India SectorDamages ($ billions) Agriculture-53.2 Forestry+0.1 Energy-21.9 Water-$1.2 Coastal Resources-$1.2

Can Also Measure Number of People Affected “Millions at Risk” study did this Global burden of disease

Millions at Risk Study

At a Minimum Should at least qualitatively identify linkages and possible direction of impacts If crops can be examined, not water supply, then identify how change in water supply could affect agricultural production

Integration through Setting Priorities Vulnerability Adaptation

Prioritization of Vulnerabilities It can be quite useful for Focusing adaptation measures Monitoring Adaptation

Examples of Adaptation Integration Caribbean ( CPACC, GEF/WORLD BANK, CIDA) Integration of adaptation into national policies dealing with risk management and into their Environment Impact Assessment procedures. Mozambique ( World Bank ) Integrating Adaptation to climate change risks into Action Plan for Poverty Reduction Bangladesh ( CARE-CIDA ) Climate change adaptation is mainstreamed into sustainable development planning

Example of Adaptation Integration China (ADB, World Bank) helping poor farmers adapt to drought conditions- government undertook integrated ecosystems management- house-level eco-farming integrated renewable energy such as solar power, vineyard cultivation and legume planting for fixing sand and providing forage.

Process is as Important as Outcome This is an expression of values, not a purely analytic exercise Need to include stakeholders and policy makers The following are tools that can be useful in setting priorities Whether you use qualitative or quantitative approach, the important thing is learning-by- doing

NAPA Process

Adaptation Policy Framework Table 4: Ranking of priority systems/regions/climate hazards C1C2C3C4C5C6 System/ Region/ Hazard Social impacts Economic impacts Environmental impacts Political impacts Ranking A B C

OECD Method

Ranking Adaptations Screening Multicriteria assessment Benefit-cost analysis

Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism Adaptation Measure in Antigua

Multicriteria Assessment OptionsEffectivenessFeasibilityCostScore A3227 B24410 C5139

Benefit-Cost Analysis Estimate all benefits and costs in a common metric to determine whether benefits > costs Monetary values often used Difficulty: what to do about non-market benefits or uncertainties Difficulty: requires much data and analysis

BCA Example: Sea Walls in Kiribati

What to Use

Conclusions Integration is important to at least identify related impacts Analysis is desirable because there can be surprises Integration can also be useful for examining total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities It is interdisciplinary process

Conclusions There should be involvement of local stakeholders, the private sector, individuals, the research community and different levels of government. Awareness raising and capacity building also essential.